Election Night 2026: Where Results Come From and How Prediction Markets Settle

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 11, 2026, 2:04 PM ET

Key findings

• Kalshi. Of 71 markets reviewed, Kalshi names the U.S. Congress as the settlement source for 36 (the Senate races, which resolve on who is sworn in), a state election authority for 29 (governor races), the Library of Congress for 2 (chamber control) and a list of several official and media sources for 4. 69 of 71 markets say they can settle early once media organizations project a winner; the rest settle on the expected date shown in the table.
• Polymarket. Its rules for these races name: AP, Fox News and NBC called (67 markets), official state results / certification (3 markets). This is a reading of each market’s rules text on Oct 11, 2026; read the full rules on the market page before trading.
• Timing. Kalshi’s expected settlement dates by month: Dec 2026 (1), Jan 2027 (67), Feb 2027 (3). Dates are the exchange’s own estimate and can change.
• Election Day is Tuesday, Nov 3, 2026. Our election-night scorecard stores the final pre-election prices on the afternoon of that day and grades each race as it settles.

Who settles the markets

Every race: settlement source and timing

“Early settlement” means Kalshi’s rules allow it to settle after a consensus of media organizations projects the winner instead of waiting for the expected date. Click a race for its live odds.

Download the data

Settlement rules by race (CSV)

Includes the Polymarket rule sentence quoted from each market. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Where to find official results

Each state’s election results are published by its own election authority, which Kalshi links in the table above where it names one. Some states post unofficial results on election night and certify them days or weeks later. Official certification dates differ by state, so a market that waits for certification can settle well after Nov 3. Check the state authority’s site and the exchange’s rules for the specific race. For historical comparison, the MIT Election Data and Science Lab publishes past results as open data.

Methodology

• Markets. Every Senate, governor and chamber-control event on our midterms tracker (latest daily snapshot).
• Kalshi. The event’s settlement_sources and its first market’s expected and latest expiration times and secondary rules text, from the public API. “Early settlement” is flagged when the rules text mentions accelerated determination or a media consensus.
• Polymarket. The market description from the public Gamma API. We classify the text as “AP, Fox News and NBC called” when it names those outlets, “official state results / certification” when it mentions official or certified results, and “other / see rules” otherwise. This is an automated reading and can be wrong; the exchange’s rules are authoritative.
• Not covered. PredictIt’s contract rules, and how any exchange handles a recount, runoff or contested result beyond what its rules text states.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket and the public rules text of each market. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.