Hemp THC Beverage Prediction Markets vs Federal Law

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Nov 12, 2026, 8:04 AM ET

Key findings

• The current law sets a 0.4 mg total-THC-per-container limit, effective Dec. 11, 2026.
• Do 3 mg THC drinks still count as hemp? on Nov 13, 2026: 94%.
• Do 3 mg THC drinks still count as hemp? on Dec 10, 2026: 94%.
• Do 3 mg THC drinks still count as hemp? on Mar 13, 2027: 62%.
• Do 3 mg THC drinks still count as hemp? on Nov 19, 2027: 24%.
• Is a 3 mg THC drink legal to sell? on Nov 16, 2026: 98%.
• Is a 3 mg THC drink legal to sell? on Dec 14, 2026: 55%.

The markets, date by date

Each row is a separate Yes/No contract on the legal status on that date, not “by” that date. So a later date can trade lower than an earlier one.

Market middle: for “above X” ladders, the point where the implied chance crosses 50% (prices forced to fall as the threshold rises, interpolated between rungs). Prices are the bid/ask midpoint when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade. Events with fewer than 500 contracts traded show “thin trading” instead of a middle, and ladders whose quoted prices contradict each other show “prices out of order”. Pulled Nov 12, 2026, 8:04 AM ET.

The law today

Section 781 of the agriculture appropriations in P.L. 119-37 (signed Nov. 12, 2025) redefines hemp for federal purposes. It counts total THC, including THCA, rather than delta-9 alone, and it excludes finished products containing more than 0.4 mg of total THC per container. A 12-ounce drink with 3 mg of THC is over that cap. The change was due to take effect one year after enactment; P.L. 119-103 moved the effective date to Dec. 11, 2026. Until then, the 2018 Farm Bill definition (0.3% delta-9 THC by dry weight) still applies, which most hemp drinks meet.

How it settles

The first market (lawful hemp) resolves Yes if, on its date, federal law treats a hemp-derived drink with 3 mg or more of total THC per container as hemp excluded from the Controlled Substances Act. The second (legal to sell) uses a 12-ounce can with exactly 3 mg of naturally produced delta-9 THC and asks whether federal law treats it as lawful to sell. Both look at federal law only. State bans and age limits do not count, and neither does how hard regulators enforce the law.

What moves it

Congress can delay the date again (often in a spending bill), set a new per-serving cap for drinks, or repeal the change. Farm Bill drafts and the next stopgap spending deadline are the main moments to watch. A court ruling that blocks the law would also count, since it would change how federal law treats the drinks on that date.

Worked example

If “on Nov. 13, 2026” trades at 92% but “on Mar. 13, 2027” at 66%, the gap says traders see about a one-in-four chance the Dec. 11 deadline takes effect without another delay or fix. A trader who expects Congress to delay again would buy the March contract at 66 cents for a $1 payout.

Download the data

Hemp THC Beverages markets (one row per event) (CSV)

One row per live event: market middle, contracts listed and traded, and the latest official value. No contract prices or price histories. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Methodology

• Markets. Open Kalshi events for each series, read from the public API. Prices are bid/ask midpoints when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade.
• Official values. Text of P.L. 119-37 (Sec. 781) and P.L. 119-103 on Congress.gov.
• No prices in the CSV. One row per event: market middle, contracts listed and traded, and the latest official value.
• Limits. Market middles are snapshots, not forecasts we endorse. Official values shown are the latest published, not necessarily the period each market settles on. Thinly traded events are flagged. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Nov 12, 2026, 8:04 AM ET.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

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