Central-bank decision markets: chance given to what happened

World Central Bank Decisions: How Well Did Prediction Markets Call Them?

The outcome Kalshi traders favored a day before was right in 55 of 58 central-bank decisions.

We scored every settled Kalshi rate-decision market for 11 central banks outside the U.S. since Oct 29, 2025. On average the market gave the actual outcome a 85% chance a day before. When a bank changed rates, the market had favored that move 18 of 21 times.

Kalshi market data and official statistics, pulled Oct 15, 2026, 7:53 AM ET. Updated daily.

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:53 AM ET

58decisions scored
11central banks
95%favorite was right
85%avg. chance on actual outcome

Key findings

  • 55 of 58 decisions called right (95%). The favorite is the outcome with the highest price 24 hours before the market closed, with prices scaled to add up to 100%.
  • Rate changes were harder. Of 21 decisions where a bank hiked or cut, the market favored the right move 18 times; holds were called right 37 of 37 times.
  • Official rates check out. For 56 of 56 decisions we could check, the change in the BIS policy-rate series matches the outcome Kalshi settled.
  • Biggest surprise. Bank of Russia, Jun 19, 2026: “Cut 25bps” had a 3% chance a day before; the market favored “Cut 50bps”.
Central-bank decision markets: chance given to what happenedCentral-bank decision markets: chance given to what happened00.20.50.71.01.2Canada: 0.9Japan: 1.0RB Australia: 0.8ECB: 1.0England: 0.9Russia: 0.4Korea: 0.9Mexico: 0.8People's China: 0.9Central Brazil: 0.8RB India: 0.8CanadaJapanRB AustraliaECBEnglandRussiaKoreaMexicoPeople's ChinaCentral BrazilRB IndiaAvg. chance on actual outcome, 24h beforeProbability (0–1)Kalshi; BIS; PredictionScout
Average implied chance a day before each decision for the outcome that happened, by central bank.

Upcoming decisions: what the markets expect

Market closesCentral bankMost likely outcomeImplied chance
Oct 21, 2026Bank of KoreaMaintain current rate94%
Oct 22, 2026Central Bank of the Republic of TürkiyeCut 1-250bps53%
Oct 23, 2026Bank of RussiaMaintain current rate92%
Oct 27, 2026Reserve Bank of New ZealandHike 1-25bps56%
Oct 28, 2026Bank of CanadaMaintains rate81%
Oct 29, 2026European Central BankMaintain current rate90%
Oct 29, 2026Bank of JapanMaintain current rate94%
Nov 2, 2026Reserve Bank of AustraliaMaintain current rate80%
Nov 4, 2026Central Bank of BrazilCut 1-25bps86%
Nov 5, 2026Bank of EnglandHike 1-25bps93%
Nov 5, 2026Bank of MexicoMaintain current rate86%

Bank by bank

Central bankDecisionsFavorite rightAvg. chance on actual outcomeBrierLatest decision
Bank of Canada88/893%0.008Sep 2, 2026: Maintains rate
Bank of Japan77/796%0.002Sep 17, 2026: Hike 25bps
Reserve Bank of Australia66/682%0.100Sep 29, 2026: Hike 1-25bps
European Central Bank66/697%0.002Sep 10, 2026: Hike 1-25bps
Bank of England66/694%0.005Sep 17, 2026: Maintain current rate
Bank of Russia64/645%0.575Sep 11, 2026: Maintain current rate
Bank of Korea55/588%0.044Aug 26, 2026: Hike 1-25bps
Bank of Mexico54/582%0.147Sep 24, 2026: Maintain current rate
People's Bank of China44/491%0.012Mar 19, 2026: Maintain current rate
Central Bank of Brazil33/377%0.087Sep 16, 2026: Cut 25bps
Reserve Bank of India22/283%0.063Aug 5, 2026: Maintain current rate

Brier here is the multi-outcome version: 0 is perfect, and spreading probability evenly over five outcomes scores 0.800.

Every decision

DecisionCentral bankOutcomeChance a day beforeMarket favorite (if different)BIS policy-rate change
Sep 29, 2026Reserve Bank of AustraliaHike 1-25bps98%same
Sep 24, 2026Bank of MexicoMaintain current rate89%same+0 bp ✓
Sep 17, 2026Bank of JapanHike 25bps97%same+25 bp ✓
Sep 17, 2026Bank of EnglandMaintain current rate94%same+0 bp ✓
Sep 16, 2026Central Bank of BrazilCut 25bps89%same-25 bp ✓
Sep 11, 2026Bank of RussiaMaintain current rate78%same+0 bp ✓
Sep 10, 2026European Central BankHike 1-25bps98%same+25 bp ✓
Sep 2, 2026Bank of CanadaMaintains rate91%same+0 bp ✓
Aug 26, 2026Bank of KoreaHike 1-25bps68%same+25 bp ✓
Aug 11, 2026Reserve Bank of AustraliaMaintain current rate97%same+0 bp ✓
Aug 6, 2026Bank of MexicoMaintain current rate95%same+0 bp ✓
Aug 5, 2026Reserve Bank of IndiaMaintain current rate93%same
Jul 30, 2026Bank of JapanMaintain current rate98%same+0 bp ✓
Jul 30, 2026Bank of EnglandMaintain current rate97%same+0 bp ✓
Jul 24, 2026Bank of RussiaCut 25bps55%same-25 bp ✓
Jul 23, 2026European Central BankMaintain current rate98%same+0 bp ✓
Jul 15, 2026Bank of CanadaMaintains rate97%same+0 bp ✓
Jun 19, 2026Bank of RussiaCut 25bps3%Cut 50bps-25 bp ✓
Jun 18, 2026Bank of EnglandMaintain current rate91%same+0 bp ✓
Jun 17, 2026Central Bank of BrazilCut 25bps76%same-25 bp ✓
Jun 16, 2026Reserve Bank of AustraliaMaintain current rate82%same+0 bp ✓
Jun 15, 2026Bank of JapanHike 25bps94%same+25 bp ✓
Jun 11, 2026European Central BankHike 1-25bps97%same+25 bp ✓
Jun 10, 2026Bank of CanadaMaintains rate93%same+0 bp ✓
Jun 5, 2026Reserve Bank of IndiaMaintain current rate73%same+0 bp ✓
May 27, 2026Bank of KoreaMaintain current rate92%same+0 bp ✓
Apr 29, 2026Bank of CanadaMaintains rate94%same+0 bp ✓
Apr 27, 2026Bank of JapanMaintain current rate97%same+0 bp ✓
Apr 24, 2026Bank of RussiaCut 50bps51%same-50 bp ✓
Apr 9, 2026Bank of KoreaMaintain current rate94%same+0 bp ✓
Mar 26, 2026Bank of MexicoCut 25bps38%Maintain current rate-25 bp ✓
Mar 19, 2026People's Bank of ChinaMaintain current rate93%same+0 bp ✓
Mar 19, 2026Bank of EnglandMaintain current rate95%same+0 bp ✓
Mar 19, 2026European Central BankMaintain current rate98%same+0 bp ✓
Mar 18, 2026Central Bank of BrazilCut 25 basis points66%same-25 bp ✓
Mar 18, 2026Bank of CanadaMaintains rate98%same+0 bp ✓
Mar 18, 2026Bank of JapanMaintain current rate98%same+0 bp ✓
Mar 16, 2026Reserve Bank of AustraliaHike 1-25bps45%same+25 bp ✓
Feb 25, 2026Bank of KoreaMaintain current rate94%same+0 bp ✓
Feb 23, 2026People's Bank of ChinaMaintain current rate88%same+0 bp ✓
Feb 13, 2026Bank of RussiaCut 50 basis points35%Maintain current rate-50 bp ✓
Feb 5, 2026Bank of MexicoMaintain current rate93%same+0 bp ✓
Feb 5, 2026Bank of EnglandMaintain current rate97%same+0 bp ✓
Feb 5, 2026European Central BankMaintain current rate98%same+0 bp ✓
Feb 3, 2026Reserve Bank of AustraliaHike 1-25 basis points79%same+25 bp ✓
Jan 28, 2026Bank of CanadaMaintains rate96%same+0 bp ✓
Jan 22, 2026Bank of JapanMaintain current rate96%same+0 bp ✓
Dec 22, 2025People's Bank of ChinaMaintain current rate91%same+0 bp ✓
Dec 19, 2025Bank of RussiaCut 50 basis points47%same-50 bp ✓
Dec 18, 2025Bank of MexicoCut 1-25 basis points93%same-25 bp ✓
Dec 18, 2025Bank of JapanHike 21-40 basis points94%same+25 bp ✓
Dec 18, 2025Bank of EnglandCut 1-25 basis points92%same-25 bp ✓
Dec 18, 2025European Central BankMaintain current rate93%same+0 bp ✓
Dec 10, 2025Bank of CanadaMaintains rate91%same+0 bp ✓
Dec 8, 2025Reserve Bank of AustraliaMaintain current rate90%same+0 bp ✓
Nov 26, 2025Bank of KoreaMaintain current rate91%same+0 bp ✓
Nov 19, 2025People's Bank of ChinaMaintain current rate91%same+0 bp ✓
Oct 29, 2025Bank of CanadaCut 25bps86%same-25 bp ✓

For the U.S. Federal Reserve, see the Fed decision scorecard and dot plot vs markets.

Download the data

Decision-by-decision scorecard (CSV)

One row per settled decision. Outcome probabilities are summary values (prices scaled to sum to 100%), not raw price histories. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

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Methodology

  • Markets. Kalshi’s central-bank decision series (KXCBDECISION*, KXCBDTURKEY), each a set of outcomes such as “Maintain current rate” or “Hike 1–25bps”, from Kalshi’s public API.
  • Price. 24 hours before the market closed: midpoint of bid and ask from hourly candles when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade. Outcome prices are scaled to add up to 100%.
  • Official check. Daily policy rates from the BIS central bank policy rates dataset: the change between two days before the decision and ten days after (to allow for effective dates). Decisions newer than the BIS data are left unchecked.
  • Limits. Some banks have only a handful of decisions; many of these markets trade thinly; Kalshi’s outcome ranges differ by bank. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 15, 2026, 7:53 AM ET.

Cite this research

Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, October 15). World Central Bank Decisions: How Well Did Prediction Markets Call Them?. https://predictionscout.com/research/central-bank-decision-prediction-markets/

For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/central-bank-decision-prediction-markets/)”

The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Market data: Kalshi. Policy rates: Bank for International Settlements.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with policy rates from the Bank for International Settlements. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

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