Live prediction market odds from Kalshi and Polymarket — implied probabilities from real-money trading, not polls. PredictionScout works like a prediction market aggregator: each page below shows current prices on every platform that lists the market, updated from public exchange data, with the top prediction market sites compared side by side. Last sync: October 24, 2026.
2026 Midterms
| Market | Current favorite | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Which Party Wins the Senate in 2026? | Democratic Party | 64% |
| Which Party Wins the House in 2026? | Democratic Party | 90% |
| Closest Governor Race of 2026 | Georgia | 18% |
| 2026 Midterms: Balance of Power | Democrats sweep | 66% |
Senate Races
| Market | Current favorite | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Senate Race 2026 | Democratic (James Talarico) | 64% |
| Michigan Senate Race 2026 | Democratic (Abdul El-Sayed) | 68% |
| Georgia Senate Race 2026 | Democratic (Jon Ossoff) | 96% |
| Maine Senate Race 2026 | Democratic (Troy Jackson) | 64% |
| Montana Senate Race 2026 | Republican (Kurt Alme) | 92% |
| New Hampshire Senate Race 2026 | Democratic (Chris Pappas) | 90% |
| Kansas Senate Race 2026 | Republican (Roger Marshall) | 60% |
| North Carolina Senate Race 2026 | Democratic (Roy Cooper) | 96% |
| Iowa Senate Race 2026 | Republican (Ashley Hinson) | 57% |
| Ohio Senate Race 2026 | Democratic (Sherrod Brown) | 68% |
| Florida Senate Race 2026 | Republican (Ashley Moody) | 90% |
| Kentucky Senate Race 2026 | Republican (Andy Barr) | 97% |
| Alaska Senate Race 2026 | Democratic Party | 76% |
| Alabama Senate Race 2026 | Republican (Barry Moore) | 98% |
| Arkansas Senate Race 2026 | Republican (Tom Cotton) | 96% |
| Colorado Senate Race 2026 | Democratic (John Hickenlooper) | 99% |
| Delaware Senate Race 2026 | Democratic (Chris Coons) | 98% |
| Idaho Senate Race 2026 | Republican (Jim Risch) | 95% |
| Illinois Senate Race 2026 | Democratic (Juliana Stratton) | 98% |
| Louisiana Senate Race 2026 | Republican (Julia Letlow) | 93% |
| Massachusetts Senate Race 2026 | Democratic (Ed Markey) | 98% |
| Minnesota Senate Race 2026 | Democratic (Peggy Flanagan) | 84% |
| Mississippi Senate Race 2026 | Republican (Cindy Hyde-Smith) | 88% |
| Nebraska Senate Race 2026 | Republican (Pete Ricketts) | 76% |
| New Jersey Senate Race 2026 | Democratic (Cory Booker) | 97% |
| New Mexico Senate Race 2026 | Democratic (Ben Ray Luján) | 97% |
| Oklahoma Senate Race 2026 | Republican (Kevin Hern) | 97% |
| Oregon Senate Race 2026 | Democratic (Jeff Merkley) | 98% |
| Rhode Island Senate Race 2026 | Democratic (Jack Reed) | 99% |
| South Carolina Senate Race 2026 | Republican (Darline Graham) | 79% |
| South Dakota Senate Race 2026 | Republican (Mike Rounds) | 95% |
| Tennessee Senate Race 2026 | Republican (Bill Hagerty) | 96% |
| Virginia Senate Race 2026 | Democratic (Mark Warner) | 98% |
| West Virginia Senate Race 2026 | Republican (Shelley Moore Capito) | 98% |
| Wyoming Senate Race 2026 | Republican (Harriet Hageman) | 99% |
Governor Races
| Market | Current favorite | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| California Governor Race 2026 | Xavier Becerra | 97% |
| Texas Governor Race 2026 | Republican (Greg Abbott) | 68% |
| Florida Governor Race 2026 | Republican (Byron Donalds) | 82% |
| Ohio Governor Race 2026 | Democratic (Amy Acton) | 80% |
| Illinois Governor Race 2026 | Democratic (JB Pritzker) | 97% |
| Michigan Governor Race 2026 | Democratic (Jocelyn Benson) | 93% |
| Wisconsin Governor Race 2026 | Democratic (David Crowley) | 80% |
| Arizona Governor Race 2026 | Democratic (Katie Hobbs) | 90% |
| Georgia Governor Race 2026 | Democratic (Keisha Lance Bottoms) | 58% |
| Alabama Governor Race 2026 | Republican (Tommy Tuberville) | 94% |
| Arkansas Governor Race 2026 | Republican (Sarah Huckabee Sanders) | 96% |
| Colorado Governor Race 2026 | Democratic (Phil Weiser) | 96% |
| Connecticut Governor Race 2026 | Democratic (Ned Lamont) | 97% |
| Hawaii Governor Race 2026 | Democratic (Josh Green) | 98% |
| Iowa Governor Race 2026 | Democratic (Rob Sand) | 86% |
| Idaho Governor Race 2026 | Republican (Brad Little) | 97% |
| Massachusetts Governor Race 2026 | Democratic (Maura Healey) | 96% |
| Maryland Governor Race 2026 | Democratic (Wes Moore) | 97% |
| Maine Governor Race 2026 | Democratic (Hannah Pingree) | 95% |
| Minnesota Governor Race 2026 | Democratic (Amy Klobuchar) | 95% |
| New Mexico Governor Race 2026 | Democratic (Deb Haaland) | 94% |
| Nevada Governor Race 2026 | Democratic (Aaron Ford) | 66% |
| New York Governor Race 2026 | Democratic (Kathy Hochul) | 95% |
| Oklahoma Governor Race 2026 | Republican (Mike Mazzei) | 90% |
| Oregon Governor Race 2026 | Democratic (Tina Kotek) | 82% |
| Pennsylvania Governor Race 2026 | Democratic (Josh Shapiro) | 97% |
| Rhode Island Governor Race 2026 | Democratic (Helena Foulkes) | 95% |
| South Carolina Governor Race 2026 | Republican (Alan Wilson) | 94% |
| South Dakota Governor Race 2026 | Republican (Larry Rhoden) | 97% |
| Tennessee Governor Race 2026 | Republican (Marsha Blackburn) | 94% |
| Vermont Governor Race 2026 | Republican (Phil Scott) | 74% |
| Wyoming Governor Race 2026 | Republican (Eric Barlow) | 98% |
2028 Presidential Race
| Market | Current favorite | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2028 Presidential Election | J.D. Vance | 20% |
| 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee | Jon Ossoff | 16% |
| 2028 Republican Presidential Nominee | J.D. Vance | 40% |
Economics & Fed
| Market | Current favorite | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Fed Rate Decision — September 2026 | Settled: Hike 25bps | final |
| Fed Rate Decision — October 2026 | Fed maintains rate | 92% |
| US Recession in 2026 | Yes — recession in 2026 | 3.5% |
Awards & Culture
| Market | Current favorite | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Heisman Trophy Winner | Jeremiah Smith | 38% |
| Emmys: Best Drama Series | Settled: The Pitt | final |
| Emmys: Best Comedy Series | Settled: Widow's Bay | final |
Other Races
| Market | Current favorite | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Mayoral Election | Nithya Raman | 54% |
Research
The prices above change by the hour. Our research section steps back and looks at what the markets have gotten right, how they compare with each other, and where they stand legally. Each study explains its method and includes a free CSV download.
- How accurate are prediction markets on Fed decisions? — Kalshi’s track record on every FOMC meeting since 2023
- 2026 midterms tracker — Kalshi, Polymarket and PredictIt side by side in every Senate and governor race, updated daily
- Prediction market lawsuit tracker — every federal case involving Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com and Robinhood
- Senate Money vs Markets: 2026 Campaign Finance and Election Odds — campaign fundraising set against market odds in every 2026 Senate race
How to Read These Odds
Prediction market contracts pay $1 if an outcome happens, so the price is the probability: a 62¢ contract implies 62%. Learn the mechanics in What Are Prediction Markets?, see the top platforms ranked in our platform rankings, and check trading costs with the fee calculator.
Common Questions
Which prediction market is the most accurate?
No published study crowns a single most accurate prediction market platform. What research does show is that market prices in aggregate are well-calibrated — favorites priced at 70% win about 70% of the time — and that platforms rarely disagree by much, because traders arbitrage large gaps. When Kalshi and Polymarket do diverge on a market, the comparison tables on our odds pages show it.
How do I convert prediction market odds to American odds?
For a price below 50¢, divide 100 by the price in dollars and subtract 100 (a 25¢ contract is roughly +300; a 40¢ contract roughly +150). For a price above 50¢, the odds are negative: a 60¢ contract is roughly −150 and a 75¢ contract roughly −300. An odds converter tool is on our roadmap.
PredictionScout may earn commissions from platform links — disclosure.