Live prediction market odds from Kalshi and Polymarket — implied probabilities from real-money trading, not polls. PredictionScout works like a prediction market aggregator: each page below shows current prices on every platform that lists the market, updated from public exchange data, with the top prediction market sites compared side by side. Last sync: September 9, 2026.
2026 Midterms
| Market | Current favorite | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Midterms: Balance of Power | D-House, D-Senate | 48% |
| Closest Governor Race of 2026 | Ohio | 15% |
| Which Party Wins the House in 2026? | Democratic Party | 84% |
| Which Party Wins the Senate in 2026? | Republican Party | 52% |
Senate Races
Governor Races
2028 Presidential Race
| Market | Current favorite | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| 2028 Republican Presidential Nominee | J.D. Vance | 45% |
| 2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee | Jon Ossoff | 17% |
| 2028 Presidential Election | J.D. Vance | 22% |
Economics & Fed
| Market | Current favorite | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| US Recession in 2026 | Yes | 4.0% |
| Fed Rate Decision — October 2026 | Fed maintains rate | 68% |
| Fed Rate Decision — September 2026 | Hike 25bps | 54% |
Awards & Culture
| Market | Current favorite | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Emmys: Best Comedy Series | Widow's Bay | 84% |
| Emmys: Best Drama Series | The Pitt | 94% |
| Heisman Trophy Winner | Darian Mensah | 17% |
Other Races
| Market | Current favorite | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Mayoral Election | Karen Bass | 65% |
Money vs Markets
Campaign fundraising alongside these odds for all 32 Senate races on the 2026 ballot: Senate Money vs Markets — $892 million raised, and most of it in races traders already call decided. Built from Federal Election Commission filings.
How to Read These Odds
Prediction market contracts pay $1 if an outcome happens, so the price is the probability: a 62¢ contract implies 62%. Learn the mechanics in What Are Prediction Markets?, see the top platforms ranked in our platform rankings, and check trading costs with the fee calculator.
Common Questions
Which prediction market is the most accurate?
No published study crowns a single most accurate prediction market platform. What research does show is that market prices in aggregate are well-calibrated — favorites priced at 70% win about 70% of the time — and that platforms rarely disagree by much, because traders arbitrage large gaps. When Kalshi and Polymarket do diverge on a market, the comparison tables on our odds pages show it.
How do I convert prediction market odds to American odds?
For a price below 50¢, divide 100 by the price in dollars and subtract 100 (a 25¢ contract is roughly +300; a 40¢ contract roughly +150). For a price above 50¢, the odds are negative: a 60¢ contract is roughly −150 and a 75¢ contract roughly −300. An odds converter tool is on our roadmap.
Maintained by Arthur Angelo. PredictionScout may earn commissions from platform links — disclosure.