Core PCE prices, monthly change: market median vs actual

How Accurate Are Prediction Markets on Core PCE Inflation? Kalshi vs. BEA

Kalshi’s core PCE markets missed BEA’s monthly number by a median 0.03 points over 18 releases.

Core PCE is the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve watches most closely. A day before each BEA release, we compare the market’s median with the first published monthly change. The number came in above the market 13 times and below it 5 times. For the next release, Kalshi’s market median is 0.26%.

Kalshi market data and official statistics, pulled Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 AM ET. Updated daily.

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 AM ET

18months scored
0.03 ptmedian miss
93%threshold contracts called right
0.26%market median, next release

Key findings

  • Typical miss: 0.03 points. In the median month BEA’s number landed 0.03 percentage points from the market median a day before (average 0.04). BEA publishes the change rounded to 0.1.
  • Threshold contracts were right 93% of the time. Of 86 “core PCE above X%” contracts, the side priced above 50¢ a day before won 80.
  • Biggest miss: May 2025. Market median 0.10%, number used 0.2%.
  • Settlement check. 17 of 18 scored Kalshi settlements match BEA’s first-published change.

Core PCE prices, monthly change

Next release: How much will core PCE increase in Sep 2026?

Trading closes Thursday, October 29, 2026, 8:25 AM ET. Market median right now: 0.3%. 3,320 contracts traded so far. As of Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 AM ET. Market on Kalshi.

ContractImplied chance
Above 0.0%95%
Above 0.1%95%
Above 0.2%79%
Above 0.3%26%
Above 0.4%6%

Across 18 releases from Feb 28, 2025 to Sep 30, 2026, the market’s median a day before was off by 0.03 pt in a typical release (median miss) and 0.04 pt on average. The number came in above the market median 13 times and below it 5 times. Of 86 individual “above X” contracts, the side priced above 50¢ a day out was right 80 times (93%).

Core PCE prices, monthly change: market median vs actualCore PCE prices, monthly change: market median vs actual-0.10.00.10.20.30.5Jan 2025Apr 2025Jun 2025Aug 2025Oct 2025Jan 2026Mar 2026May 2026Jul 2026Aug 2026Kalshi median, 24h beforeActualCore PCE, month-over-month %Kalshi; BEA; PredictionScout
Core PCE prices, monthly change: Kalshi median 24 hours before each release vs. the number that came out.
PeriodReleasedMarket median 24h beforeActual (Kalshi settlement)Official first releaseActual minus medianContracts called rightContracts traded
Aug 2026Sep 30, 20260.2%0.2%0.2% ✓-0.03 pt2/321,256
Jul 2026Aug 26, 20260.2%0.2%0.2% ✓+0.03 pt5/563,621
Jun 2026Jul 30, 20260.1%0.1%0.1% ✓-0.03 pt4/5131,572
May 2026Jun 25, 20260.3%0.3%0.3% ✓+0.02 pt5/5157,730
Apr 2026May 28, 20260.3%0.2%0.2% ✓-0.05 pt3/4217,879
Mar 2026Apr 30, 20260.2%0.3%0.3% ✓+0.08 pt5/553,171
Feb 2026Apr 9, 20260.3%0.4%0.4% ✓+0.06 pt6/662,522
Jan 2026Mar 13, 20260.4%0.4%0.4% ✓+0.03 pt5/5123,432
Dec 2025Feb 20, 20260.3%0.4%0.4% ✓+0.08 pt4/416,364
Nov 2025Jan 22, 20260.3%0.2%0.2% ✓market median outside listed strikes2/24,164
Oct 2025Jan 22, 20260.2%0.2%0.2% ✓-0.01 pt4/55,978
Sep 2025Dec 5, 20250.2%0.2%0.2% ✓+0.03 pt5/511,124
Aug 2025Sep 26, 20250.2%0.2%0.2% ✓+0.03 pt5/5112,016
Jul 2025Aug 29, 20250.2%0.3%0.3% ✓+0.05 pt5/588,883
Jun 2025Jul 31, 20250.2%0.3%0.3% ✓+0.06 pt5/541,762
May 2025Jun 27, 20250.1%0.2%0.2% ✓+0.10 pt4/522,039
Apr 2025May 30, 20250.1%0.1%0.1% ✓+0.03 pt5/532,625
Mar 2025Apr 30, 20250.0%0.0%0.0% n/a-0.02 pt4/542,878
Feb 2025Mar 28, 20250.3%0.4%0.4% ✓market median outside listed strikes2/271,356
Jan 2025Feb 28, 20250.2%0.3%0.3% ✓+0.06 pt4/420,256
Nov 2024Dec 20, 20240.1%0.3%0.1% differsKalshi recorded 0.3 (its 0.2% contract settled YES); BEA first published 0.1. Not scored3/431,146

Highlighted rows missed by more than 0.15 pt. Official values: BEA core PCE price index (excluding food and energy), month-over-month change computed from the first vintage that included the month in ALFRED series PCEPILFE, rounded to 0.1.

Download the data

Release-by-release scorecard (CSV)

One row per settled Kalshi event: the market median 24 hours before, Kalshi’s settlement value, the official first-release value and the miss. Per-contract prices are not included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

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Methodology

  • Markets. Kalshi’s monthly core PCE series (KXPCECORE and the older PCECORE- events), ladders of “above X%” contracts on the month-over-month change in the PCE price index excluding food and energy, from Kalshi’s public API.
  • Official data. BEA’s Personal Income and Outlays release. We recompute the first-published monthly change from ALFRED series PCEPILFE and round to 0.1 point. The release date shown is the first vintage that included the month; several fall-2025 releases were delayed by the federal shutdown.
  • Market median. For each release we take every “above X” contract’s price 24 hours before trading closed (midpoint of bid and ask from hourly candles when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade; looking back up to 48 hours). Prices are forced to fall as the threshold rises, and the median is the point where the implied chance crosses 50%, interpolated between neighboring thresholds. If the 50% point falls outside the listed thresholds the release is shown but not scored.
  • Contracts called right. Each threshold contract counts once: right if the side priced above 50¢ a day before won. Contracts priced exactly 50¢ are skipped.
  • Actual value. The value Kalshi settled on (its “expiration value”), which follows the first official release. We check it against the first-release value in ALFRED (St. Louis Fed’s archive of data as first published) and mark any difference.
  • Limits. One exchange; thin trading in some older and far-out contracts; the market median is a summary of a full distribution, not a single forecast. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 AM ET.

Cite this research

Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, October 15). How Accurate Are Prediction Markets on Core PCE Inflation? Kalshi vs. BEA. https://predictionscout.com/research/core-pce-prediction-market-accuracy/

For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/core-pce-prediction-market-accuracy/)”

The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Market data: Kalshi. PCE data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via ALFRED.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with PCE data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

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