$247k
New York’s State Comptroller put the average 2025 Wall Street bonus at $246,900, from a $49.2 billion pool. Kalshi’s market on the 2026 figure crosses 50% at $277,469.
Kalshi market data and Office of the New York State Comptroller, pulled Nov 12, 2026, 8:04 AM ET. Updated daily.
By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Nov 12, 2026, 8:04 AM ET
Key findings
- Comptroller: $246,900 average bonus for 2025, pool $49.2B.
- Market: >$200k: 98% · >$225k: 92% · >$250k: 87% · >$275k: 54% · >$300k: 14% · >$325k: 6% · >$350k: 2%.
The market
Each row pays $1 if the Comptroller’s estimate of the average 2026 bonus is above that amount.
| Average 2026 bonus | Chance | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|
| Above $200,000 | 98% | 275,440 |
| Above $225,000 | 92% | 92,943 |
| Above $250,000 | 87% | 70,662 |
| Above $275,000 | 54% | 71,737 |
| Above $300,000 | 14% | 112,438 |
| Above $325,000 | 6% | 20,117 |
| Above $350,000 | 2% | 8,629 |
Market middle: for “above X” ladders, the point where the implied chance crosses 50% (prices forced to fall as the threshold rises, interpolated between rungs). Prices are the bid/ask midpoint when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade. Events with fewer than 500 contracts traded show “thin trading” instead of a middle, and ladders whose quoted prices contradict each other show “prices out of order”. Pulled Nov 12, 2026, 8:04 AM ET.
How it settles
The Office of the New York State Comptroller publishes an estimate of the bonus pool and the average bonus for employees in New York City’s securities industry each March, based on personal income tax withholding. The market settles on the average-bonus figure in that release for 2026 (expected March 2027). The estimate covers cash bonuses paid for the year, including those paid early the next year; deferred stock awards that have not vested are not counted. The Comptroller can revise earlier years in later releases; the market resolves on the 2026 figure it reports.
What moves it
Bonuses track securities-firm profits: trading revenue, investment-banking fees from mergers and stock offerings, and asset values. Broker-dealer pre-tax profits, reported by the Comptroller from FINRA data in the first half, are the best early signal. Headcount matters too, because the average is the pool divided by the number of employees.
Worked example
For the 2025 figure, the $49.2 billion pool divided by roughly 199 thousand employees gives about $246,900. A 10% larger pool with the same headcount would mean about $271,590. If the “above $275,000” contract trades at 60 cents, the market sees a better-than-even chance of a gain of more than 11%.
Download the data
Wall Street Bonus markets (one row per event) (CSV)
One row per live event: market middle, contracts listed and traded, and the latest official value. No contract prices or price histories. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.
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Methodology
- Markets. Open Kalshi events for each series, read from the public API. Prices are bid/ask midpoints when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade.
- Official values. Office of the New York State Comptroller, annual Wall Street bonus estimate for 2025 (March 2026).
- No prices in the CSV. One row per event: market middle, contracts listed and traded, and the latest official value.
- Limits. Market middles are snapshots, not forecasts we endorse. Official values shown are the latest published, not necessarily the period each market settles on. Thinly traded events are flagged. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Nov 12, 2026, 8:04 AM ET.
Cite this research
Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, November 12). Wall Street Bonus Prediction Markets vs the NY State Comptroller. https://predictionscout.com/research/wall-street-bonus-prediction-markets/
For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/wall-street-bonus-prediction-markets/)”
The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Market data: Kalshi. Official data: Office of the New York State Comptroller.
Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.
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