Avocado Price Prediction Markets vs. USDA Grocery Ad Prices

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 23, 2026, 8:34 AM ET

Key findings

• Typical miss 13¢ (average 13¢) on a price that ranged from $0.79 to $1.34 over 17 weeks.
• Threshold contracts right 89% of the time (136 of 153).
• Market vs. last week’s price. On 15 consecutive weeks, the market’s median miss was 13¢, against 15¢ for simply repeating the previous week’s price; the market was closer 11 times.
• Biggest miss: week of Jul 10, 2026. Market median $1.23, reported $0.86.
• Latest USDA report (Oct 16, 2026): $0.79 per avocado, advertised by 4,659 stores.
• Settlement check. USDA keeps only the latest report at a stable address, so we can check 2 of 17 weeks against the report itself so far: 2 match. PredictionScout archives each new report as it comes out.

Hass avocado advertised price (each)

Across 17 releases from Jun 12, 2026 to Oct 16, 2026, the market’s median a day before was off by 13¢ in a typical release (median miss) and 13¢ on average. The number came in above the market median 6 times and below it 11 times. Of 153 individual “above X” contracts, the side priced above 50¢ a day out was right 136 times (89%).

Highlighted rows missed by more than 20¢. Official values: USDA AMS Weekly Grocery Store Specialty Crops Feature Activity report, Avocados, Hass, each: This Week weighted average advertised price.

Download the data

Release-by-release scorecard (CSV)

One row per settled Kalshi event: the market median 24 hours before, Kalshi’s settlement value, the official first-release value and the miss. Per-contract prices are not included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Methodology

• Markets. Kalshi’s KXAMSAVO series: “above $X” contracts on the weekly weighted average advertised price of Hass avocados (each), from Kalshi’s public API. The series started in June 2026.
• Official data. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service Weekly Grocery Store Specialty Crops Feature Activity report (FVWRETAIL), the source in Kalshi’s rules: the “This Week” weighted average advertised price for Avocados, Hass, each. Each report also shows the previous week, which lets us check two weeks per report. Weeks we could not check use Kalshi’s settlement value.
• Benchmark. “Last week’s price” is the previous week’s reported value, known before the market’s pricing time.
• Market median. For each release we take every “above X” contract’s price 24 hours before trading closed (midpoint of bid and ask from hourly candles when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade; looking back up to 48 hours). Prices are forced to fall as the threshold rises, and the median is the point where the implied chance crosses 50%, interpolated between neighboring thresholds. If the 50% point falls outside the listed thresholds the release is shown but not scored.
• Contracts called right. Each threshold contract counts once: right if the side priced above 50¢ a day before won. Contracts priced exactly 50¢ are skipped.
• Actual value. The value Kalshi settled on (its “expiration value”), which follows the first official release. We check it against the first-release value in ALFRED (St. Louis Fed’s archive of data as first published) and mark any difference.
• Limits. One exchange; thin trading in some older and far-out contracts; the market median is a summary of a full distribution, not a single forecast. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 23, 2026, 8:34 AM ET.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with retail price data from the USDA Agricultural Marketing Service. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

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