How Accurate Are Prediction Markets on the ADP Jobs Report? Kalshi vs. ADP’s First Print

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 15, 2026, 10:46 AM ET

Key findings

• Typical miss: 23K jobs. Median miss 23K, average 42K, over 17 monthly ADP reports.
• Threshold contracts right 81% of the time. 97 of 120 “above X” contracts went the way the market leaned a day before.
• Biggest miss: Jun 2025. Market median +78K, ADP reported -33K.
• Settlement check. 15 of 17 Kalshi settlements match ADP’s first print in ALFRED.

ADP vs. the BLS jobs report

ADP’s count comes from its own payroll clients; the Bureau of Labor Statistics count comes from its employer survey, published two days later. For 18 months, the two first prints of private-sector job growth differed by a median 89K. Both are first prints; both are revised later.

BLS values: total private employment (ALFRED series USPRIV), month-over-month change in the first vintage published.

ADP private payrolls, monthly change

Across 17 releases from Apr 2, 2025 to Sep 30, 2026, the market’s median a day before was off by 23K in a typical release (median miss) and 42K on average. The number came in above the market median 7 times and below it 10 times. Of 120 individual “above X” contracts, the side priced above 50¢ a day out was right 97 times (81%).

Highlighted rows missed by more than 50K. Official values: ADP National Employment Report, total private employment change, as first published (ALFRED series ADPMNUSNERSA, same-vintage month-over-month change).

Download the data

Release-by-release scorecard (CSV)

One row per settled Kalshi event: the market median 24 hours before, Kalshi’s settlement value, the official first-release value and the miss. Per-contract prices are not included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Methodology

• Markets. Kalshi’s KXADP series: “above X” contracts on the monthly change in private employment in the ADP National Employment Report, from Kalshi’s public API.
• Official data. ADP National Employment Report (ADP Research with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab). First-published values come from ALFRED series ADPMNUSNERSA, the same-vintage change from the prior month. BLS comparison: ALFRED series USPRIV. ADP data are attributed to ADP; only the monthly headline changes are shown.
• Market median. For each release we take every “above X” contract’s price 24 hours before trading closed (midpoint of bid and ask from hourly candles when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade; looking back up to 48 hours). Prices are forced to fall as the threshold rises, and the median is the point where the implied chance crosses 50%, interpolated between neighboring thresholds. If the 50% point falls outside the listed thresholds the release is shown but not scored.
• Contracts called right. Each threshold contract counts once: right if the side priced above 50¢ a day before won. Contracts priced exactly 50¢ are skipped.
• Actual value. The value Kalshi settled on (its “expiration value”), which follows the first official release. We check it against the first-release value in ALFRED (St. Louis Fed’s archive of data as first published) and mark any difference.
• Limits. One exchange; thin trading in some older and far-out contracts; the market median is a summary of a full distribution, not a single forecast. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 15, 2026, 10:46 AM ET.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with employment data from ADP and the BLS. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

Related: jobs report (BLS) scorecard · GDP scorecard · recession odds · All research