Kalshi and Polymarket pick the same favorite in 66 of 67 Senate and governor races.
Their prices for the favorite are within 5 points in 67 of 67; the median gap is 0.8 points.
Prices as of Oct 15, 2026, 7:39 AM ET. All 35 Senate races, 32 governor races and 3 control markets. Updated daily.
Key findings
- The markets agree almost everywhere. Kalshi and Polymarket have the same favorite in 66 of 67 races listed on both. Where PredictIt also has a market (56 races), all three agree in 55.
- Where they split: Georgia governor (Kalshi favors R at 52%, Polymarket favors D at 50%, Predictit favors R at 52%).
- Biggest Kalshi–Polymarket gap: Maine Senate, 3.0 points on Troy Jackson (D) (Kalshi 56.5%, Polymarket 59.5%).
- Widest three-way spread: New Hampshire Senate, 5.0 points between the highest and lowest price on Chris Pappas (D) (Kalshi 89.5%, Polymarket 88.5%, PredictIt 84.5%).
- 5 races are close to a coin flip on Kalshi (favorite under 60%): Georgia governor (Rick Jackson (R) 52%), Nevada governor (Aaron Ford (D) 52%), Maine Senate (Troy Jackson (D) 56%), Iowa Senate (Ashley Hinson (R) 58%), Ohio Senate (Sherrod Brown (D) 60%).
- Where the money is: on Kalshi, House control (57.5M contracts), Balance of power (39.8M contracts), Texas Senate (27.6M contracts); on Polymarket, California governor ($41.9M), Balance of power ($23.4M), House control ($17.5M). Polymarket figures are lifetime event volume and may include primary-season trading.
- $978.1M raised by all candidates in the 35 Senate races, per the FEC (through most committees' latest report covers through June 30, 2026; retrieved Oct 15, 2026, 7:39 AM ET). Most expensive: Georgia ($113.4M), Texas ($113.0M), Ohio ($58.1M).
The closest races, venue by venue
Who controls Congress?
| Market | Favorite | Kalshi | Polymarket | PredictIt | Kalshi contracts | Polymarket volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senate control | D | 61.5% | 63.5% | 63.5% | 14.7M | $6.6M |
| House control | D | 90.3% | 90.5% | 89.0% | 57.5M | $17.5M |
| Balance of power | D sweep | 61.5% | 62.5% | 62.5% | 39.8M | $23.4M |
Every 2026 Senate race
Sorted from closest to safest. Prices show the implied chance that the favorite’s party wins on each exchange; “Gap” is the spread between the highest and lowest of those prices. Click a price to open the market. Highlighted rows: the venues disagree on the favorite.
| State | Favorite | Kalshi | Polymarket | PredictIt | Gap (pts) | Kalshi chg. since last snapshot | Kalshi contracts | Polymarket volume | FEC receipts (all candidates) | Raised: favorite · runner-up |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine | Troy Jackson (D) | 56.5% | 59.5% | 56.0% | 3.5 | +0.0 | 8.7M | $2.3M | $53.5M | · Collins $18.9M |
| Iowa | Ashley Hinson (R) | 58.5% | 58.5% | 55.5% | 3.0 | -1.0 | 5.1M | $889K | $19.1M | Hinson $10.2M · Turek $6.3M |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown (D) | 59.5% | 61.5% | 62.5% | 3.0 | +0.0 | 6.8M | $1.2M | $58.1M | Brown $38.6M · Husted $14.4M |
| Texas | James Talarico (D) | 63.5% | 62.5% | 62.5% | 1.0 | +0.0 | 27.6M | $3.7M | $113.0M | Talarico $68.6M · Paxton $9.2M |
| Kansas | Roger Marshall (R) | 63.5% | 62.5% | 60.0% | 3.5 | -1.0 | 3.5M | $907K | $11.7M | Marshall $6.2M · Hamilton $4.2M |
| Michigan | Abdul El-Sayed (D) | 68.5% | 70.5% | 69.0% | 2.0 | +1.0 | 7.0M | $1.6M | $49.1M | El-Sayed $14.5M · Rogers $10.9M |
| Alaska | Mary Peltola (D) | 73.5% | 73.6% | 75.5% | 2.0 | +0.0 | 2.7M | $1.3M | $30.3M | Peltola $18.5M |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts (R) | 74.5% | 72.5% | 72.0% | 2.5 | +0.0 | 2.5M | $619K | $17.1M | Ricketts $11.2M · Osborn $5.8M |
| South Carolina | Darline Graham (R) | 85.5% | 84.5% | 80.5% | 5.0 | +0.0 | 3.0M | $785K | $42.4M | Graham $347K · Andrews $10.8M |
| Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan (D) | 86.5% | 87.5% | 85.0% | 2.5 | +0.0 | 2.0M | $268K | $27.6M | Flanagan $6.5M · Tafoya $5.3M |
| New Hampshire | Chris Pappas (D) | 89.5% | 88.5% | 84.5% | 5.0 | +0.0 | 2.0M | $331K | $22.3M | Pappas $15.4M · Sununu $4.2M |
| Mississippi | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) | 90.7% | 91.0% | 91.0% | 0.3 | -1.0 | 365K | $153K | $8.5M | Hyde-Smith $5.5M · Colom $2.4M |
| Florida | Ashley Moody (R) | 91.5% | 90.5% | 86.5% | 5.0 | +0.4 | 1.4M | $227K | $45.4M | Moody $11.3M · Nixon $975K |
| Montana | Kurt Alme (R) | 92.5% | 93.5% | 92.5% | 1.0 | +0.0 | 689K | $167K | $5.9M | Alme $2.0M · Bodnar $3.2M |
| Arkansas | Tom Cotton (R) | 94.0% | 94.4% | 93.0% | 1.4 | -0.0 | 233K | $39K | $16.1M | Cotton $13.6M · Shoffner $2.3M |
| Idaho | Jim Risch (R) | 94.6% | 95.3% | 95.5% | 0.9 | +0.2 | 382K | $142K | $5.4M | Risch $4.4M · Achilles $692K |
| Louisiana | Julia Letlow (R) | 94.6% | 93.5% | 92.0% | 2.6 | +0.8 | 97K | $50K | $36.7M | Letlow $6.2M · Davis $2.0M |
| Tennessee | Bill Hagerty (R) | 94.6% | 95.8% | 95.0% | 1.2 | +0.9 | 419K | $97K | $16.0M | Hagerty $16.0M · Bradshaw $2K |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff (D) | 95.2% | 96.1% | 95.0% | 1.1 | +0.0 | 1.8M | $232K | $113.4M | Ossoff $98.0M · Collins $7.5M |
| North Carolina | Roy Cooper (D) | 95.2% | 95.8% | 94.5% | 1.3 | +0.0 | 3.3M | $223K | $49.5M | Cooper $35.0M · Whatley $11.3M |
| South Dakota | Mike Rounds (R) | 95.2% | 94.1% | 95.5% | 1.4 | +0.2 | 274K | $60K | $5.5M | Rounds $4.5M · Bengs $782K |
| Kentucky | Andy Barr (R) | 96.2% | 96.8% | 94.5% | 2.3 | +0.1 | 193K | $37K | $26.5M | Barr $10.0M · Booker $1.1M |
| New Jersey | Cory Booker (D) | 96.6% | 97.5% | 98.0% | 1.4 | +0.1 | 103K | $22K | $33.8M | Booker $33.5M · Murphy $27K |
| New Mexico | Ben Ray Luján (D) | 97.2% | 97.2% | 95.5% | 1.7 | +0.4 | 59K | $27K | $8.4M | Luján $8.3M · Marker $92K |
| Oklahoma | Kevin Hern (R) | 97.2% | 97.8% | 97.0% | 0.8 | +0.7 | 44K | $27K | $15.6M | Hern $10.0M · Thomas $107K |
| Virginia | Mark Warner (D) | 97.4% | 97.8% | 96.5% | 1.3 | +0.0 | 35K | $24K | $26.1M | Warner $25.2M · Mizusawa $419K |
| Illinois | Juliana Stratton (D) | 97.6% | 98.4% | 98.5% | 0.9 | -0.2 | 19K | $36K | $45.9M | Stratton $5.9M · Tracy $2.5M |
| Oregon | Jeff Merkley (D) | 97.8% | 97.9% | 96.5% | 1.4 | +0.0 | 13K | $7K | $8.0M | Merkley $7.9M · Smith $121K |
| Massachusetts | Ed Markey (D) | 98.0% | 98.4% | 98.5% | 0.5 | -0.0 | 44K | $50K | $16.6M | Markey $8.1M · Deaton $1.6M |
| Rhode Island | Jack Reed (D) | 98.0% | 98.0% | 97.5% | 0.5 | -0.1 | 35K | $27K | $4.7M | Reed $4.5M · McKay $180K |
| West Virginia | Shelley Moore Capito (R) | 98.0% | 98.0% | 98.0% | 0.0 | -0.0 | 28K | $16K | $8.8M | Capito $6.5M · Anderson $50K |
| Alabama | Barry Moore (R) | 98.3% | 97.4% | 96.0% | 2.3 | +1.5 | 13K | $13K | $9.6M | Moore $3.8M · Wess $117K |
| Delaware | Democrat | 98.5% | 98.1% | 98.5% | 0.4 | +0.6 | 27K | $32K | $7.2M | |
| Wyoming | Harriet Hageman (R) | 98.6% | 98.4% | 95.5% | 3.1 | +0.4 | 25K | $20K | $5.5M | Hageman $2.4M · Byrd $23K |
| Colorado | John Hickenlooper (D) | 98.8% | 98.0% | 95.5% | 3.3 | +0.4 | 33K | $51K | $15.0M | Hickenlooper $10.3M · Baisley $138K |
FEC receipts are total receipts reported by every candidate committee filed for the seat in the 2026 cycle (including primary losers), through each committee’s latest report (most committees' latest report covers through June 30, 2026; retrieved Oct 15, 2026, 7:39 AM ET). Source: OpenFEC API. Third-quarter reports are due October 15, 2026; this table picks them up automatically.
Every 2026 governor race
| State | Favorite | Kalshi | Polymarket | PredictIt | Gap (pts) | Kalshi chg. since last snapshot | Kalshi contracts | Polymarket volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | Rick Jackson (R) | 51.5% | 50.0% ≠ | 52.0% | 2.0 | -2.0 | 1.7M | $198K |
| Nevada | Aaron Ford (D) | 52.5% | 52.0% | 55.0% | 3.0 | +1.0 | 1.5M | $421K |
| Ohio | Amy Acton (D) | 68.5% | 71.5% | 70.0% | 3.0 | +0.0 | 2.5M | $420K |
| Oregon | Tina Kotek (D) | 74.5% | 75.5% | — | 1.0 | +1.0 | 345K | $88K |
| Vermont | Phil Scott (R) | 76.5% | 75.0% | 77.0% | 2.0 | +0.0 | 545K | $238K |
| Texas | Greg Abbott (R) | 77.5% | 78.0% | 77.5% | 0.5 | -3.0 | 2.3M | $561K |
| Florida | Byron Donalds (R) | 79.5% | 79.5% | 80.0% | 0.5 | +0.0 | 3.1M | $297K |
| Wisconsin | David Crowley (D) | 80.5% | 81.0% | 76.0% | 5.0 | +0.0 | 1.4M | $718K |
| Arizona | Katie Hobbs (D) | 88.5% | 88.5% | 87.0% | 1.5 | +1.0 | 752K | $136K |
| Iowa | Rob Sand (D) | 88.5% | 90.5% | 86.5% | 4.0 | +0.0 | 1.7M | $245K |
| Oklahoma | Mike Mazzei (R) | 90.7% | 89.5% | — | 1.2 | -1.2 | 221K | $44K |
| New Mexico | Deb Haaland (D) | 93.1% | 93.0% | 92.5% | 0.6 | -1.0 | 103K | $69K |
| Alabama | Tommy Tuberville (R) | 93.4% | 94.2% | 90.5% | 3.7 | +0.7 | 144K | $40K |
| Tennessee | Marsha Blackburn (R) | 93.5% | 95.6% | — | 2.0 | -0.0 | 123K | $17K |
| Michigan | Jocelyn Benson (D) | 93.8% | 95.2% | 91.0% | 4.1 | -0.4 | 415K | $309K |
| Maine | Hannah Pingree (D) | 94.1% | 95.5% | — | 1.4 | -0.5 | 87K | $40K |
| New York | Kathy Hochul (D) | 94.3% | 95.2% | 94.0% | 1.2 | +0.3 | 2.8M | $242K |
| South Carolina | Alan Wilson (R) | 94.7% | 94.5% | — | 0.2 | +0.6 | 34K | $19K |
| Massachusetts | Maura Healey (D) | 95.1% | 96.0% | 96.5% | 1.4 | +0.2 | 1.2M | $112K |
| Minnesota | Amy Klobuchar (D) | 95.2% | 95.5% | 92.0% | 3.5 | +0.2 | 494K | $91K |
| Rhode Island | Helena Foulkes (D) | 95.2% | 97.0% | 95.5% | 1.8 | +0.4 | 40K | $71K |
| Connecticut | Ned Lamont (D) | 95.4% | 96.6% | 96.0% | 1.2 | -0.2 | 51K | $10K |
| California | Xavier Becerra (D) | 95.8% | 96.4% | 99.5% | 3.7 | +0.0 | 18.2M | $41.9M |
| Arkansas | Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) | 96.0% | 97.0% | — | 1.0 | -0.1 | 7K | $11K |
| Colorado | Phil Weiser (D) | 96.0% | 96.8% | 97.5% | 1.5 | +0.0 | 172K | $17K |
| Idaho | Brad Little (R) | 97.0% | 97.8% | — | 0.7 | +0.0 | 8K | $27K |
| Illinois | JB Pritzker (D) | 97.1% | 97.7% | — | 0.6 | +0.5 | 157K | $15K |
| Wyoming | Eric Barlow (R) | 97.2% | 97.8% | — | 0.5 | -0.2 | 9K | $12K |
| Maryland | Wes Moore (D) | 97.4% | 97.8% | 94.5% | 3.3 | -0.5 | 63K | $24K |
| South Dakota | Larry Rhoden (R) | 97.4% | 97.6% | — | 0.2 | -0.2 | 9K | $27K |
| Hawaii | Josh Green (D) | 98.1% | 99.2% | — | 1.1 | -0.1 | 11K | $17K |
| Pennsylvania | Josh Shapiro (D) | 98.2% | 97.7% | 97.5% | 0.7 | +0.2 | 701K | $57K |
Download the data
Race-by-race CSV (Oct 15, 2026, 7:39 AM ET)
One row per race: each venue’s favorite and price, the consensus favorite’s price on each venue, gaps, Kalshi contracts and open interest, Polymarket volume, and FEC receipts. A dated snapshot of every market price is archived daily starting October 1, 2026 (15 so far); we will publish the full history after Election Day. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0.
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Methodology
- Races. All 35 Senate races (33 regular plus the Ohio and Florida specials), the 2026 governor races PredictionScout tracks, and the House control, Senate control and balance-of-power markets. Each race maps to one Kalshi event and one Polymarket event, checked by hand; PredictIt is matched by its market title (“Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in …”) where such a market exists.
- Price. The midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is 10 cents or less; otherwise the last trade (Kalshi, PredictIt) or the displayed outcome price (Polymarket). A price of 63¢ means a 63% implied chance.
- Party-level comparison. Kalshi and Polymarket mostly list candidates; PredictIt lists parties. To compare like with like we add up each venue’s contracts by party. Party comes from the exchange label (for example “(D)”), then from the candidate’s FEC filing, then from a short hand-checked list for labels with no party. Independents are kept separate.
- Favorite and gap. Each venue’s favorite is its highest-priced party or outcome. The consensus favorite is the outcome with the highest average price across venues. “Gap” is the spread between the highest and lowest venue price for that outcome.
- Volume is not comparable across venues. Kalshi reports contracts traded (each pays $1 if right); Polymarket reports lifetime dollar volume for the whole event, which can include primary-season trading. We never add them together.
- Prices are a snapshot. Thin markets can move a lot on small trades, and PredictIt prices include its fee and $850 position cap, which can keep its prices further from 0 and 100. Small gaps (a point or two) are within normal bid–ask noise.
- Snapshots. Every market price on every venue is archived once a day so the full pre-election record can be scored after November 3. This page regenerates from the latest snapshot.
Cite this research
Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, October 15). 2026 Midterm Predictions: Kalshi vs Polymarket vs PredictIt Tracker. https://predictionscout.com/research/2026-midterms-prediction-market-tracker/
For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/2026-midterms-prediction-market-tracker/)”
The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Market data: Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt. Fundraising: Federal Election Commission.
Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, and PredictIt; fundraising data from the Federal Election Commission. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.
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