Economic Release Calendar With Prediction Market Odds: CPI, Jobs, GDP and the Fed

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:49 AM ET

Key findings

• CPI. Kalshi’s market median for the monthly CPI change due Nov 10, 2026 is 0.2%, with an 80% range of 0.1% to 0.5% (583,470 contracts traded in the market). How often Kalshi’s favorite was right in the past: CPI accuracy study.
• Core CPI (excluding food and energy), due Nov 10, 2026: market median 0.2%, 80% range 0.1% to 0.4%.
• Jobs report due Nov 6, 2026: market median 55,000 jobs added, 80% range -10,000 to 125,000.
• Unemployment rate in the same report: market median 4.2%, 80% range 4.0% to 4.3%.
• GDP (advance estimate for Q3, Oct 30, 2026): market median growth 3.5% at an annual rate, 80% range 2.5% to 4.1%.
• How to read “median” and “80% range.” Kalshi lists a ladder of “above X” contracts. The median is where the price crosses 50%; the range runs from where it crosses 90% to where it crosses 10%. These are market prices, not forecasts we make, and they move until the release.

What Kalshi expects for the next CPI reports

Release calendar with market expectations

Download the data

Calendar and market odds (CSV)Kalshi price ladders (CSV)

The first file lists each release with Kalshi’s median and range; the second lists every strike’s price. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Methodology

• Dates. BLS release calendar (iCalendar feed), the BEA release schedule page and the Federal Reserve calendar JSON. Dates can move; confirm on the agency’s own site on the day.
• Odds. Kalshi’s open “above X” markets for CPI (KXCPI), core CPI (KXCPICORE), nonfarm payrolls (KXPAYROLLS), unemployment (KXU3) and GDP (KXGDP). Each price is the bid/ask midpoint (last trade if the spread is wider than 10¢), made non-increasing across strikes. A market is matched to a release when its closing date is within two days of the release date.
• Fed. Kalshi’s FOMC decision market (KXFEDDECISION): midpoint price of the hold, hike and cut outcomes.
• Median and range. For CPI, core CPI, unemployment and GDP, which are reported to one decimal, the median is the first print at which the chance of a higher number falls to 50% or less (so an “above 0.5%” price of 54% means a 0.6% print is the median). For jobs added, we interpolate between strikes and round to the nearest thousand. Kalshi markets that close on a different release (for example the next month’s) are listed against that release.
• Not covered. PPI, JOLTS, import prices and the Employment Cost Index are on the calendar but have no Kalshi market tracked here. Past performance of Kalshi’s CPI and Fed odds is on the CPI and Fed accuracy pages.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, BLS, BEA and the Federal Reserve. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.