How Accurate Are State Gas-Price Prediction Markets? Kalshi vs. AAA in 10 States

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 15, 2026, 11:28 AM ET

Key findings

• Typical miss 0.4¢ a gallon. Across 464 state-days from Aug 24, 2026 to Oct 15, 2026.
• Against yesterday’s price. The previous day’s AAA average missed by a median 1.0¢. The market was closer on 355 days, the naive guess on 98, with 1 ties.
• Closest state: New York (median miss 0.3¢); widest: Ohio (0.7¢).
• Threshold contracts right 94% of the time. 7,149 of 7,588 “above $X” contracts went the way the market leaned at 6 PM ET.
• AAA vs the EIA. On 41 Mondays in 6 states where the EIA publishes a weekly state price, AAA’s average (as Kalshi settled it) differed from the EIA’s by 7.5¢ on average. The two surveys measure differently.

By state

For the national weekly gas market and AAA vs. the EIA’s national price, see prediction markets vs. the official numbers.

AAA vs. the EIA weekly state price

The EIA publishes weekly regular-gasoline prices for a handful of states. On Mondays, here is AAA’s average as Kalshi settled it next to the EIA price for the same day.

Download the data

State-by-day scorecard (CSV)AAA vs EIA, Mondays (CSV)

One row per settled market period. Per-contract price histories are not included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Methodology

• Markets. Kalshi’s daily state gas series (KXAAAGASD<state>) for the ten states with the most settled days. Each day has a ladder of “above $X” contracts half a cent apart. Trading opens around 8 AM ET and closes at 11:59 PM ET the evening before the AAA reading, so we price every contract at 6 PM ET (hourly-candle midpoint, else last trade, looking back up to 48 hours) and take the median where the implied chance crosses 50%.
• Official data. AAA’s daily average regular price for the state, as recorded in Kalshi’s settlement. AAA’s own pages are not republished. Independent check: the EIA weekly retail regular gasoline price by state (EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update), available for California, Florida, New York, Texas, Ohio, Washington.
• Baseline. The previous day’s AAA settlement for the same state, when Kalshi had a market that day.
• Limits. Daily state markets are thin, and many contracts never trade; only ten states are scored; the history is short (Kalshi began listing state markets in 2026). Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 15, 2026, 11:28 AM ET.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with fuel prices from the EIA. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

Related: national gas price vs EIA · oil markets vs EIA · CPI scorecard · All research