14 of the 29 states with a Kalshi market on their 2026 attorney general race are in court over prediction markets.
In these states a state official or agency is suing, or being sued by, a prediction-market platform in a case on our lawsuit tracker. In most states the attorney generalThe attorney general usually represents the state in that litigation, and the winner of the Nov 3 race will inherit it.rsquo;s office represents the state in court, so the winner of the Nov 3 race could inherit these cases.
Kalshi market data and our lawsuit tracker, pulled Oct 16, 2026, 12:05 PM ET. Updated daily.
By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 16, 2026, 12:05 PM ET
Key findings
- 29 attorney general races have Kalshi markets. The market favors the Democratic candidate in 17 and the Republican candidate in 12.
- Overlap with the lawsuit tracker. 14 of those states are a party to at least one government case: in 8 the state has sued a platform, and in 13 a platform has sued state officials. The Democratic candidate is favored in 12 of the 14 and the Republican candidate in 2.
- States in litigation without a Kalshi AG market: Kentucky, Montana, New Jersey, Tennessee, Utah, Washington (no 2026 AG race on the ballot, or no Kalshi market).
- Closest races by market price: Georgia (Tanya Miller 50%); Iowa (Brenna Bird 56%); Kansas (Chris Mann 56%); Ohio (Keith Faber 66%).
- Most traded: New York (358,959 contracts); Minnesota (94,414 contracts); South Dakota (77,714 contracts).
Every 2026 attorney general market
Implied chance from the midpoint of the best bid and ask (last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢). Case counts come from our lawsuit tracker and include only cases between a platform and a state government, official or agency (city cases shown separately).
| State | Democratic candidate | Republican candidate | Contracts traded | Prediction-market cases involving the state | Official results source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Jeffrey McLaughlin 4% | Katherine Robertson 96% | 6,425 | none on tracker | Alabama Secretary of State |
| Arkansas | Democratic party 1% | Tim Griffin 98% | 48,979 | none on tracker | Arkansas Secretary of State |
| Arizona | Kris Mayes 82% | Warren Petersen 16% | 44,932 | platform sued state officials (2) | Arizona Secretary of State |
| Colorado | Jena Griswold 94% | Michael Allen 3% | 36,113 | none on tracker | Colorado Secretary of State |
| Connecticut | William Tong 97% | John Bolton 2% | 13,027 | state sued a platform (1); platform sued state officials (2) | Connecticut Secretary of the State |
| Delaware | Democratic party 97% | Republican party 2% | 54,801 | none on tracker | Delaware Department of Elections |
| Florida | José Javier Rodriguez 24% | James Uthmeier 78% | 21,663 | none on tracker | Florida Division of Elections |
| Georgia | Tanya Miller 50% | Brian Strickland 48% | 8,396 | none on tracker | Georgia Secretary of State |
| Iowa | Nate Willems 44% | Brenna Bird 56% | 34,390 | platform sued state officials (2) | Iowa Secretary of State |
| Idaho | Lori Hickman 3% | Raúl Labrador 97% | 42,896 | none on tracker | Idaho Secretary of State |
| Illinois | Kwame Raoul 97% | Bob Fioretti 3% | 18,010 | platform sued state officials (1) | Illinois State Board of Elections |
| Kansas | Chris Mann 56% | Kris Kobach 44% | 7,097 | none on tracker | Kansas Secretary of State |
| Massachusetts | Andrea Joy Campbell 97% | Michael C. Walsh 2% | 23,880 | state sued a platform (1); platform sued state officials (3) | Secretary of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts |
| Maryland | Anthony G. Brown 98% | James B. Rutledge III 2% | 7,010 | platform sued state officials (3); city case (3) | Maryland State Board of Elections |
| Michigan | Eli Savit 78% | Doug Lloyd 22% | 16,978 | state sued a platform (2); platform sued state officials (4) | Michigan Department of State |
| Minnesota | Keith Ellison 74% | Ronald J. Schutz 28% | 94,414 | platform sued state officials (2) | Minnesota Secretary of State |
| North Dakota | Tim Lamb 2% | Drew Wrigley 96% | 23,796 | none on tracker | North Dakota Secretary of State |
| Nebraska | Jocelyn Brasher 8% | Mike Hilgers 92% | 4,990 | none on tracker | Nebraska Secretary of State |
| New Mexico | Raúl Torrez 94% | Samuel Kane 4% | 19,913 | state sued a platform (1); platform sued state officials (1) | New Mexico Secretary of State |
| Nevada | Nicole Jeanette Cannizzaro 78% | Adriana Guzmán Fralick 20% | 6,093 | state sued a platform (4); platform sued state officials (7) | Nevada Secretary of State |
| New York | Letitia James 93% | Saritha Komatireddy 6% | 358,959 | state sued a platform (2); platform sued state officials (4) | New York State Board of Elections |
| Ohio | John Kulewicz 30% | Keith Faber 66% | 5,616 | platform sued state officials (2) | Ohio Secretary of State |
| Oklahoma | Nick Coffey 5% | Jon Echols 94% | 7,147 | none on tracker | Oklahoma State Election Board |
| Rhode Island | Kim Ahern 97% | Alan Gordon 2% | 41,534 | state sued a platform (1); platform sued state officials (1) | Rhode Island Board of Elections |
| South Carolina | Richard Hricik 7% | David Stumbo 92% | 1,506 | none on tracker | South Carolina State Election Commission |
| South Dakota | Democratic party 2% | Lance Russell 98% | 77,714 | none on tracker | South Dakota Secretary of State |
| Texas | Nathan Johnson 26% | Mayes Middleton 72% | 14,971 | none on tracker | Texas Secretary of State |
| Vermont | Charity R. Clark 97% | Ed Kemon 3% | 29,687 | none on tracker | Vermont Secretary of State |
| Wisconsin | Josh Kaul 82% | Eric Toney 16% | 24,284 | state sued a platform (3) | Wisconsin Elections Commission |
Candidate names are as listed by Kalshi. A market price is a crowd estimate, not a prediction or endorsement by PredictionScout. Inclusion in the case column says only that the state is a party to a case; it says nothing about any candidate’s position on prediction markets.
The cases, by state
| State | Case | Platform | Filed | Court |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | KalshiEX LLC v. Johnson | Kalshi | 2026-03-12 | D. Ariz. |
| Arizona | KalshiEX, LLC, et al. v. Johnson, et al. | Kalshi | 2026-05-11 | 9th Cir. |
| Connecticut | KalshiEX LLC v. Cafferelli | Kalshi | 2025-12-03 | D. Conn. |
| Connecticut | KalshiEX LLC v. Cafferelli | Kalshi | 2026-08-12 | 2d Cir. |
| Connecticut | State of Connecticut v. KalshiEX LLC | Kalshi | 2026-08-26 | D. Conn. |
| Iowa | KalshiEX LLC v. Bird | Kalshi | 2026-03-11 | S.D. Iowa |
| Iowa | KalshiEX, LLC v. Brenna Bird | Kalshi | 2026-09-17 | 8th Cir. |
| Illinois | KalshiEX LLC v. Raoul | Kalshi | 2026-06-23 | N.D. Ill. |
| Massachusetts | Robinhood Derivatives, LLC v. Campbell | Robinhood | 2025-09-15 | D. Mass. |
| Massachusetts | Commonwealth of Massachusetts v. KalshiEX LLC | Kalshi | 2025-09-16 | D. Mass. |
| Massachusetts | QCX LLC v. Campbell | Polymarket | 2026-02-09 | D. Mass. |
| Massachusetts | Robinhood Derivatives, LLC v. Campbell | Robinhood | 2026-03-23 | 1st Cir. |
| Maryland | Kalshiex LLC v. Martin | Kalshi | 2025-04-21 | D. Maryland |
| Maryland | North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. v. Martin | Crypto.com | 2025-04-21 | D. Maryland |
| Maryland | Kalshiex LLC v. John Martin | Kalshi | 2025-08-06 | 4th Cir. |
| Michigan | QCX, LLC v. Nessel | Polymarket | 2026-03-04 | W.D. Mich. |
| Michigan | Robinhood Derivatives, LLC v. Nessel | Robinhood | 2026-03-04 | W.D. Mich. |
| Michigan | Nessel v. Kalshiex, LLC | Kalshi | 2026-03-05 | W.D. Mich. |
| Michigan | Robinhood Derivatives, LLC v. Dana Nessel | Robinhood | 2026-06-23 | 6th Cir. |
| Michigan | QCX, LLC v. Dana Nessel | Polymarket | 2026-06-25 | 6th Cir. |
| Michigan | Dana Nessel v. KalshiEX LLC | Kalshi | 2026-07-27 | 6th Cir. |
| Minnesota | KalshiEX LLC v. Ellison | Kalshi | 2026-05-27 | D. Minnesota |
| Minnesota | QCX LLC v. Ellison | Polymarket | 2026-06-03 | D. Minnesota |
| New Mexico | State of New Mexico v. Kalshi, Inc. | Kalshi | 2026-06-08 | D.N.M. |
| New Mexico | QCX LLC v. Torrez | Polymarket | 2026-06-30 | D.N.M. |
| Nevada | Kalshiex, LLC v. Hendrick | Kalshi | 2025-03-28 | D. Nev. |
| Nevada | KALSHIEX, LLC v. Hendrick | Kalshi | 2025-03-28 | D. Nev. |
| Nevada | North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. v. The State of Nevada on relation of the Nevada Gaming Control Board | Crypto.com | 2025-06-03 | D. Nev. |
| Nevada | Robinhood Derivatives, LLC v. Dreitzer | Robinhood | 2025-08-19 | D. Nev. |
| Nevada | North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. v. State of Nevada, et al. | Crypto.com | 2025-11-14 | 9th Cir. |
| Nevada | KalshiEX, LLC v. Assad, et al. | Kalshi | 2025-11-28 | 9th Cir. |
| Nevada | Robinhood Derivatives, LLC v. Dreitzer, et al. | Robinhood | 2025-12-12 | 9th Cir. |
| Nevada | State of Nevada ex rel Nevada Gaming Control Board v. Blockratize | Polymarket | 2026-02-05 | D. Nev. |
| Nevada | State of Nevada v. KalshiEX,LLC | Kalshi | 2026-02-17 | D. Nev. |
| Nevada | State of Nevada v. KalshiEX, LLC | Kalshi | 2026-03-05 | 9th Cir. |
| Nevada | State of Nevada v. Blockratize, Inc., et al. | Polymarket | 2026-03-06 | 9th Cir. |
| New York | KalshiEX LLC v. Williams | Kalshi | 2025-10-26 | S.D.N.Y. |
| New York | North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc. v. James | Crypto.com | 2026-06-12 | S.D.N.Y. |
| New York | KalshiEX LLC v. Williams | Kalshi | 2026-07-08 | 2d Cir. |
| New York | People of the State of New York (Attorney General) v. KalshiEX LLC | Kalshi | 2026-07-31 | S.D.N.Y. |
| New York | QCX LLC v. James | Polymarket | 2026-09-24 | S.D.N.Y. |
| New York | James v. QCX LLC | Polymarket | 2026-09-24 | S.D.N.Y. |
| Ohio | Kalshiex LLC v. Schuler | Kalshi | 2025-10-07 | S.D. Ohio |
| Ohio | KalshiEX LLC v. Matthew Schuler | Kalshi | 2026-03-11 | 6th Cir. |
| Rhode Island | KalshiEx LLC v. Mark Furcolo | Kalshi | 2026-05-21 | D.R.I. |
| Rhode Island | The State of Rhode Island v. KalshiEX LLC | Kalshi | 2026-05-22 | D.R.I. |
| Wisconsin | State of Wisconsin v. Kalshi, Inc. | Kalshi | 2026-04-24 | W.D. Wis. |
| Wisconsin | State of Wisconsin v. QCX, LLC | Polymarket | 2026-04-24 | W.D. Wis. |
| Wisconsin | State of Wisconsin v. Foris Dax Markets, Inc. | Crypto.com | 2026-04-24 | W.D. Wis. |
Download the data
AG markets and litigation (CSV)
One row per settled market period. Per-contract price histories are not included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.
Embed this chart
Methodology
- Markets. Kalshi’s 2026 attorney general series (
KXATTYGENplus the state code), from Kalshi’s public API, pulled daily. - Litigation. Cases on our prediction market lawsuit tracker of type “Platform v. state” (an exchange sues state officials) or “State or city v. platform”, counted cases only; city suits are shown separately. The tracker is refreshed every Monday from federal and state court records.
- Scoring (after Nov 3). Each race is priced at noon ET on Nov 2 and checked against the certified result from the state source listed in the table.
- Limits. Not every case names the attorney general personally; some are brought by or against gaming regulators. Several AG markets trade thinly. Party labels are Kalshi’s. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 16, 2026, 12:05 PM ET.
Cite this research
Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, October 16). 2026 Attorney General Races and the States Suing (or Sued by) Prediction Markets. https://predictionscout.com/research/attorney-general-races-prediction-market-lawsuits/
For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/attorney-general-races-prediction-market-lawsuits/)”
The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Market data: Kalshi. Cases: PredictionScout lawsuit tracker (court records).
Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with case data from federal and state court records. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.
Related: lawsuit tracker · regulation tracker · midterms tracker · All research