Prediction Market Regulation Tracker: CFTC Rules, Congress Bills and Hearings

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:48 AM ET

Key findings

• CFTC documents. The Federal Register lists 4 CFTC documents with “prediction markets” or “event contracts” in the title since January 2025, and 7 more that mention the topic. The most recent core document is “Data Reporting Requirements for Certain Event Contracts” (proposed rule, published Jul 1, 2026).
• Public comments. The three core 2026 CFTC dockets drew 4,966 comments on regulations.gov: 3,535 on “Prediction Markets”; 1,398 on “Prediction Markets; Public Interest Determinations”; 33 on “Data Reporting Requirements for Certain Event Contracts”. All three comment periods have closed.
• Congress. Congress.gov shows 21 bills and resolutions in the 119th Congress that are written about prediction markets (14 House, 7 Senate). The newest is H.R. 10109, “Wildfire Event Contract Prohibition Act” (introduced Aug 17, 2026). Latest action on it: Referred to the Committee on Agriculture, and in addition to the Committee on the Judiciary, for a period to be subsequently determined by the Speaker, in each case for consideration of such provisions as fall within the jurisdiction of the committee concerned.
• Where the bills stand. As of Oct 15, 2026, 7:48 AM ET, by Congress.gov’s latest action text: 19 referred to committee or introduced; 1 reported or ordered reported by a committee; 1 passed or agreed to by one chamber. No bill in the list has become law. This tracker reports Congress.gov’s action text and does not predict what happens next.

Federal bills on prediction markets, by month introduced

CFTC documents in the Federal Register

Documents from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission that contain “event contracts” or “prediction markets”. “Core” means the phrase is in the title; “Mentions” means it appears elsewhere in the document, so it may be a passing reference.

Public comments on CFTC dockets

Comment counts posted on regulations.gov, as of the last weekly check (Oct 12, 2026, 7:51 AM ET). Counts can lag late submissions.

Congressional hearings and committee meetings

Committee meetings on Congress.gov in 2026 (and a few from 2025) whose titles mention prediction markets, event contracts, gambling, sports betting, wagering or the CFTC. This is a title match, so a hearing that covers the topic without naming it will not appear.

No meetings with those words in the title are scheduled as of this update.

Held since 2025

Prediction markets in the Congressional Record

Sections of the daily Congressional Record that use the words “prediction market(s)”, “event contract(s)”, Kalshi or Polymarket, found with GovInfo full-text search and each checked in the text. 53 sections on 29 days; by year: 2024: 1, 2026: 52 (none in 2021, 2022, 2023, 2025). By type: amendment text 21; bill or resolution listing 17; floor remarks or debate 12; daily digest (committee schedule or summary) 3. Several sections can come from one bill or amendment, because the Record prints the bill listing, the amendment text and the floor action separately.

Source: GovInfo, Congressional Record. Headings are the Record’s own. Listing a section here says nothing about any member’s position.

Every federal bill and resolution

Download the data

CFTC documents (CSV)Federal bills (CSV)Congressional meetings (CSV)Congressional Record mentions (CSV)

Documents come from the Federal Register, bills and meetings from Congress.gov, and Record sections from GovInfo. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Methodology

• CFTC documents. Federal Register API, agency = Commodity Futures Trading Commission, publication date since Jan 1, 2025, search terms “event contracts” and “prediction markets”. Documents whose title contains either phrase are marked Core; others returned by the full-text search are marked Mentions, because the search also matches long documents that refer to the phrase once.
• Comments. Counts reported by regulations.gov for each docket, refreshed weekly alongside our lawsuit tracker.
• Bills. Federal bills and resolutions that we read and classified as written specifically about prediction markets or event contracts (the list is shared with the lawsuit tracker). Status, sponsor and latest action are pulled live from the Congress.gov API; bills that only mention the topic in a larger bill, such as defense authorization acts, are not listed here.
• Meetings. Congress.gov committee-meeting records for the 119th Congress from Jan 1, 2026, matched on title keywords. Canceled meetings are excluded.
• Congressional Record. GovInfo search API, collection CREC, since Jan 1, 2021, for “prediction markets”, “prediction market”, “event contracts”, Kalshi and Polymarket. Every section is downloaded and kept only if one of the terms appears in its text. Type comes from the section heading.
• Not covered. State bills and lawsuits are on the lawsuit and legality tracker. CFTC staff letters and no-action relief that are not in the Federal Register are not included.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, the Federal Register, regulations.gov and Congress.gov. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.