Social Security Trust Fund Depletion: Prediction Market vs Trustees

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 23, 2026, 8:37 AM ET

Key findings

• Market: 16%. That is the price for OASI depletion before January 1, 2033 (bid 13%, ask 20%).
• The Trustees moved the date by one quarter. Their projection went from 2033 Q1 in the 2025 report to 2032 Q4 in the 2026 report, which crosses the market’s cutoff.
• Scenario range. OASI depletion in 2031 under high-cost assumptions, 2032 under intermediate and 2035 under low-cost.
• Price range. Daily midpoints have run from 12% (Jul 26, 2026) to 35% (Jun 18, 2026).
• Why the gap? The market pays only if full benefits actually stop under the law at the time, so its price also reflects how likely lawmakers are to act before late 2032, and how close the projected date sits to the cutoff.

How the market works

The question. Yes if the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund’s reserves are depleted so that full scheduled retirement and survivors benefits are no longer payable under then-current law, after the market opened and before January 1, 2033. Otherwise No. It closes at the end of 2032.

How it settles. On reporting from the source agencies named in Kalshi’s rules (the Social Security Administration and Treasury publish the trust fund balances monthly). Reports that only repeat a projection do not count; what counts is the fund actually running out under the law at the time.

What moves the price. Three things. Each year’s Trustees Report (usually published in the spring or early summer) moves the projected date. Monthly trust fund data shows whether reserves are falling faster or slower than projected. And legislation: Congress can change what is “payable under then-current law”, for example by moving payroll tax between the OASI and Disability Insurance funds, as it did for the disability fund in 1994 and 2015, or by changing taxes or benefits. A change in law before the reserves run out would mean the Yes condition is not met as written.

Worked example

The 2026 report projects OASI reserves to be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, after which incoming taxes would cover about 78% of scheduled benefits. If that happens on schedule and the law is unchanged, benefit checks could no longer be paid in full late in 2032: Yes. If reserves last into January 2033, or a law passed before depletion lets full benefits continue, the market resolves No. A one-quarter slip in the projection, which is the size of the change between the 2025 report (first quarter of 2033) and the 2026 report, is enough to flip which side of the January 1, 2033 line the estimate falls on.

What the Trustees have projected

The projected year of reserve depletion in each annual report, under the intermediate assumptions, and the share of scheduled benefits that incoming revenue would cover at that point.

The 2026 report also gives alternative scenarios. In stochastic simulations, 95% of outcomes put combined-fund depletion between 2032 and 2039.

The numbers behind it

In 2025 the combined funds took in $1,449 billion and paid out $1,609 billion, and reserves ended the year at $2,561 billion. About 70 million people received benefits in December 2025. The Trustees project the OASI fund’s reserves to fall to 82% of a year’s cost by the start of 2029.

Download the data

Trustees’ depletion projections, 2021-2026 (CSV)Kalshi OASI-depletion market, daily (CSV)

The Trustees’ projected depletion dates by report year and the market’s daily midpoint. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Methodology

• Projections. The “Highlights” section of each Trustees Report (2022 to 2026), intermediate assumptions. The 2021 figures and the 2025 quarter are as quoted in the following year’s report.
• Market. Kalshi KXSOCIALSECURITYDEPLETE, daily candles; we keep days with a two-sided quote no wider than 10¢ and use the bid/ask midpoint.
• Neutrality. This page describes the projections and the market. It takes no position on any policy change.
• Limits. One market on one exchange. The Trustees’ figures are projections, not forecasts of legislation. A price is a crowd estimate, not a prediction by PredictionScout. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 23, 2026, 8:37 AM ET.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with projections from the Social Security Trustees Report. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

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