Prediction market statistics for 2026, each with its source and date.
174 billion contracts traded on Kalshi, 73% of them on sports; $329.9M in open positions on Polymarket. Every figure below links to where it came from, so you can check it or cite it.
Collected Oct 2, 2026, 8:02 AM ET. Updated monthly.
By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 2, 2026, 8:18 AM ET
Jump to: Size and activity · Accuracy · Lawsuits, laws and regulators · Companies and public attention
Size and activity
| Statistic | Value | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket open interest (money in open positions, worldwide) USD. Global Polymarket, not the US exchange. | $329.9M | Oct 2, 2026, 8:02 AM ET | Polymarket Data API (/oi) |
| Contracts traded on Kalshi, all time Summed across all 14,567 series. Contracts, not dollars: each pays $1 if right and trades between 1¢ and 99¢. | 174.0 billion contracts | Oct 2, 2026, 8:02 AM ET | Kalshi public API (/series, include_volume=true) |
| Share of Kalshi contracts traded on sports 127.9 billion sports contracts. Crypto is next at 19.6%. | 73.5% | Oct 2, 2026, 8:02 AM ET | Kalshi public API (/series, include_volume=true) |
| Share of Kalshi contracts traded on politics and elections 4.39 billion contracts (Kalshi categories Politics + Elections). | 2.5% | Oct 2, 2026, 8:02 AM ET | Kalshi public API (/series, include_volume=true) |
| Open events on Kalshi An event (one game, one race) can hold many markets. | 13,894 | Oct 2, 2026, 8:02 AM ET | Kalshi public API (/events, status=open) |
| Active events on Polymarket Events that are active and not closed. | 20,304 | Oct 2, 2026, 8:03 AM ET | Polymarket Gamma API (active, not closed events) |
| Kalshi markets settled in 2025 with at least 50,000 contracts traded Series with at least 1 million lifetime contracts; 15-minute and hourly series and parlays excluded. | 28,655 | Oct 2, 2026, 8:02 AM ET | Kalshi public API (historical + settled markets), PredictionScout count |
| Polymarket markets settled in 2025 with at least $50,000 volume Resolved YES or NO; voided markets excluded. | 41,872 | Oct 2, 2026, 8:02 AM ET | Polymarket Gamma API (closed markets), PredictionScout count |
| Kalshi contracts traded on 2026 Senate, governor and control markets Contracts, not dollars. | 165.2 million | Oct 2, 2026, 7:39 AM ET | PredictionScout 2026 midterms tracker (Kalshi API) |
| Polymarket volume on 2026 Senate, governor and control markets Lifetime event volume in USD; can include primary-season trading. | $89.6M | Oct 2, 2026, 7:39 AM ET | PredictionScout 2026 midterms tracker (Polymarket API) |
Markets settled each month (above our volume floors)
Kalshi markets with at least 50,000 contracts traded and Polymarket markets with at least $50,000 in volume that resolved YES or NO, by month of close. Kalshi excludes 15-minute and hourly series and parlays. Counted Oct 2, 2026, 8:02 AM ET. Polymarket’s Gamma API reports no volume for most markets that ended between about March 5 and March 26, 2026, so those markets fall below our floor and are missing; the March 2026 Polymarket count is low for that reason, not because fewer markets settled.
| Month | Kalshi | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2025 | 564 | 1,375 |
| Feb 2025 | 370 | 1,031 |
| Mar 2025 | 466 | 1,428 |
| Apr 2025 | 322 | 1,686 |
| May 2025 | 840 | 1,845 |
| Jun 2025 | 1,261 | 2,068 |
| Jul 2025 | 1,853 | 2,313 |
| Aug 2025 | 2,220 | 2,731 |
| Sep 2025 | 2,634 | 3,070 |
| Oct 2025 | 3,962 | 5,929 |
| Nov 2025 | 5,729 | 8,153 |
| Dec 2025 | 8,434 | 10,243 |
| Jan 2026 | 15,376 | 14,687 |
| Feb 2026 | 16,824 | 18,028 |
| Mar 2026 | 19,248 | 7,826 |
| Apr 2026 | 17,458 | 21,686 |
| May 2026 | 20,343 | 18,161 |
| Jun 2026 | 25,743 | 18,985 |
| Jul 2026 | 32,611 | 16,814 |
| Aug 2026 | 32,122 | 13,619 |
| Sep 2026 | 32,835 | 12,392 |
Accuracy
| Statistic | Value | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| How often the favorite won, 1 day before the outcome was clear (Kalshi + Polymarket) Settled markets closing Jan 1, 2025–Sep 30, 2026, volume floors applied. | 74.0% of 33,716 questions | Oct 2, 2026, 8:12 AM ET | PredictionScout accuracy scorecard |
| Favorites priced 70–80¢ one day out that won A well-calibrated market would land between 70% and 80%. | 65.9% | Oct 2, 2026, 8:12 AM ET | PredictionScout accuracy scorecard |
| Favorites priced 95¢ or more one day out that won | 97.3% | Oct 2, 2026, 8:12 AM ET | PredictionScout accuracy scorecard |
| Heavy favorites (90¢+ a day out) that lost | 590 of 12,609 (4.7%) | Oct 2, 2026, 8:12 AM ET | PredictionScout biggest upsets study |
| FOMC decisions where Kalshi's favorite was right the day before Meetings 2023-05-03 to 2026-09-16. | 28 of 28 | Oct 2, 2026, 7:03 AM ET | PredictionScout Fed decision study (Kalshi API, checked against FRED) |
| FOMC decisions where Kalshi's favorite was right a month before | 25 of 27 | Oct 2, 2026, 7:03 AM ET | PredictionScout Fed decision study |
Lawsuits, laws and regulators
| Statistic | Value | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal lawsuits involving Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com or Robinhood's prediction markets Plus 22 appeals. 59 were filed in 2026. | 84 | Oct 2, 2026, 2:24 AM ET | PredictionScout lawsuit tracker (CourtListener dockets, hand-verified) |
| States in federal court with a prediction-market platform State regulators, attorneys general or officials as a party, either side. | 20 | Oct 2, 2026, 2:24 AM ET | PredictionScout lawsuit tracker |
| State bills on prediction markets or event contracts tracked 6 states have enacted one (CT, IL, KY, MN, NC, TN). | 79 in 15 states | Oct 2, 2026, 2:24 AM ET | PredictionScout lawsuit tracker (LegiScan) |
| Public comments on the CFTC's 2026 prediction-markets request for comment (CFTC-2026-0331) Regulations.gov only; the CFTC also takes comments on its own site. | 3,535 | Oct 2, 2026, 8:03 AM ET | Regulations.gov API (comments per docket) |
| Public comments on the CFTC proposed rule 'Prediction Markets; Public Interest Determinations' (CFTC-2026-1189) Regulations.gov only. | 1,398 | Oct 2, 2026, 8:03 AM ET | Regulations.gov API (comments per docket) |
Companies and public attention
| Statistic | Value | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public companies that mentioned “prediction markets” in a 10-K, 10-Q or 8-K in 2026 (through 2026-10-02) A mention is not the same as doing business in prediction markets. | 72 companies, 152 filings | Oct 2, 2026, 8:03 AM ET | SEC EDGAR full-text search (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K) |
| The same count for all of 2025 | 16 companies, 24 filings | Oct 2, 2026, 8:03 AM ET | SEC EDGAR full-text search (10-K, 10-Q, 8-K) |
| Kalshi iPhone app ratings (US App Store) Ratings count, not downloads. | 566,987 ratings, average 4.8 of 5 | Oct 2, 2026, 8:03 AM ET | Apple iTunes Lookup API (US App Store) |
| Polymarket iPhone app ratings (US App Store) Ratings count, not downloads. | 60,186 ratings, average 4.6 of 5 | Oct 2, 2026, 8:03 AM ET | Apple iTunes Lookup API (US App Store) |
| English Wikipedia views of the “Kalshi” article, September 2026 Peak month since Jan 2024: December 2025 (248,494). | 73,052 | Oct 2, 2026, 8:03 AM ET | Wikimedia Pageviews API, en.wikipedia 'Kalshi' (user agents) |
| English Wikipedia views of the “Polymarket” article, September 2026 Peak month since Jan 2024: November 2024 (155,895). | 51,207 | Oct 2, 2026, 8:03 AM ET | Wikimedia Pageviews API, en.wikipedia 'Polymarket' (user agents) |
| English Wikipedia views of the “Prediction market” article, September 2026 Peak month since Jan 2024: August 2026 (68,376). | 16,043 | Oct 2, 2026, 8:03 AM ET | Wikimedia Pageviews API, en.wikipedia 'Prediction_market' (user agents) |
| Google search interest, last 12 weeks: kalshi vs polymarket vs “prediction markets” (US) Google Trends index (100 = peak week for the most-searched term since Jan 2024). Relative, not search counts. | 32 / 18 / 2 | Oct 2, 2026, 7:14 AM ET | Google Trends (US, web search) via DataForSEO |
Attention over time
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How we compile these numbers
- Primary sources first. Exchange numbers come straight from Kalshi’s and Polymarket’s public APIs; filings from SEC EDGAR; comment counts from Regulations.gov; attention from Wikimedia, Apple and Google Trends. Figures marked “PredictionScout” come from our own studies, which explain their methods and offer the underlying data.
- Units matter. Kalshi reports contracts (each pays $1 if right), Polymarket reports US dollars. We never add the two together or call contracts “dollars wagered.”
- What we leave out. We do not repeat volume or user numbers that exchanges announce in press releases or that third parties estimate, because we cannot check them against a public source. Neither exchange publishes an official monthly total volume through its API.
- Dates. Each row carries the time we pulled it. Live numbers (open interest, open events) change by the minute; the page is refreshed monthly.
- Corrections. If a number looks wrong, tell us via the contact page and we will check it against the source.
Cite this research
Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, October 2). Prediction Market Statistics 2026: Volume, Accuracy, Lawsuits and More. https://predictionscout.com/research/prediction-market-statistics/
For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/prediction-market-statistics/)”
The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Sources are listed row by row.
Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.
Related research: Accuracy scorecard · Lawsuit tracker · Biggest upsets · All research