The Kalshi favorite a day before the Oscars won 60 of 75 categories.
We scored every settled Kalshi Oscar winner market from the 2022 to 2026 ceremonies, using prices 24 hours before each ceremony ended. Best Picture favorites won 5 of 5 times; this year’s winner, One Battle After Another, had a 74% chance the day before.
Kalshi market data and official statistics, pulled Oct 13, 2026, 11:30 AM ET. Updated weekly (new data after each ceremony).
By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 13, 2026, 11:30 AM ET
Key findings
- Favorites won 60 of 75 categories (80%). On average the eventual winner had a 66% chance a day before.
- Heavy favorites were safe bets. Nominees priced at 80% or more won 32 of 32 times.
- Best Picture: 2022 CODA 48%; 2023 Everything Everywhere All at Once 86%; 2024 Oppenheimer 90%; 2025 Anora 63%; 2026 One Battle After Another 74% (winner’s chance a day before).
- Biggest upset: Best Animated Short, 2025: In the Shadow of the Cypress won at 6%; the favorite was Yuck! at 36%.
Ceremony by ceremony
| Ceremony year | Categories scored | Favorite won | Avg. chance on winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 8 | 7/8 | 67% |
| 2023 | 8 | 8/8 | 68% |
| 2024 | 14 | 10/14 | 65% |
| 2025 | 23 | 17/23 | 61% |
| 2026 | 22 | 18/22 | 71% |
Biggest upsets
| Year | Category | Winner | Winner’s chance | Market favorite |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Best Animated Short | In the Shadow of the Cypress | 6% | Yuck! (36%) |
| 2025 | Best Live Action Short | I'm Not a Robot | 9% | A Lien (41%) |
| 2026 | Best Casting | One Battle after Another | 14% | Sinners (76%) |
| 2026 | Best Cinematography | Sinners | 20% | One Battle After Another (74%) |
| 2026 | Best Documentary Feature | Mr. Nobody against Putin | 20% | The Perfect Neighbor (63%) |
| 2026 | Best Animated Short | The Girl Who Cried Pearls | 21% | Butterfly (54%) |
| 2025 | Best Film Editing | Anora | 22% | Conclave (59%) |
| 2024 | Best Sound | The Zone of Interest | 24% | Oppenheimer (69%) |
Every category
| Year | Category | Winner | Chance a day before | Favorite won? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Best Visual Effects | Avatar: Fire and Ash | 91% | Yes |
| 2026 | Best Supporting Actress | Amy Madigan | 50% | Yes |
| 2026 | Best Supporting Actor | Sean Penn | 74% | Yes |
| 2026 | Best Sound | F1 | 75% | Yes |
| 2026 | Best Production Design | Frankenstein | 88% | Yes |
| 2026 | Best Picture | One Battle After Another | 74% | Yes |
| 2026 | Best Original Song | Golden | 83% | Yes |
| 2026 | Best Original Screenplay | Sinners | 96% | Yes |
| 2026 | Best Original Score | Sinners | 93% | Yes |
| 2026 | Best Makeup and Hairstyling | Frankenstein | 94% | Yes |
| 2026 | Best International Feature Film | Sentimental Value | 67% | Yes |
| 2026 | Best Film Editing | One Battle After Another | 82% | Yes |
| 2026 | Best Documentary Feature | Mr. Nobody against Putin | 20% | No |
| 2026 | Best Director | Paul Thomas Anderson | 90% | Yes |
| 2026 | Best Costume Design | Frankenstein | 88% | Yes |
| 2026 | Best Cinematography | Sinners | 20% | No |
| 2026 | Best Casting | One Battle after Another | 14% | No |
| 2026 | Best Animated Short | The Girl Who Cried Pearls | 21% | No |
| 2026 | Best Animated Feature | KPop Demon Hunters | 94% | Yes |
| 2026 | Best Adapted Screenplay | One Battle After Another | 94% | Yes |
| 2026 | Best Actress | Jessie Buckley | 96% | Yes |
| 2026 | Best Actor | Michael B. Jordan | 53% | Yes |
| 2025 | Best Visual Effects | Dune: Part Two | 90% | Yes |
| 2025 | Best Supporting Actress | Zoe Saldana | 88% | Yes |
| 2025 | Best Supporting Actor | Kieran Culkin | 93% | Yes |
| 2025 | Best Sound | Dune: Part Two | 68% | Yes |
| 2025 | Best Production Design | Wicked | 76% | Yes |
| 2025 | Best Picture | Anora | 63% | Yes |
| 2025 | Best Original Song | El Mal | 71% | Yes |
| 2025 | Best Original Screenplay | Anora | 61% | Yes |
| 2025 | Best Original Score | The Brutalist | 80% | Yes |
| 2025 | Best Makeup and Hairstyling | The Substance | 87% | Yes |
| 2025 | Best Live Action Short | I'm Not a Robot | 9% | No |
| 2025 | Best International Feature Film | I'm Still Here | 61% | Yes |
| 2025 | Best Film Editing | Anora | 22% | No |
| 2025 | Best Documentary Short | The Only Girl in the Orchestra | 26% | No |
| 2025 | Best Documentary Feature | No Other Land | 51% | Yes |
| 2025 | Best Director | Sean Baker | 68% | Yes |
| 2025 | Best Costume Design | Wicked | 92% | Yes |
| 2025 | Best Cinematography | The Brutalist | 71% | Yes |
| 2025 | Best Animated Short | In the Shadow of the Cypress | 6% | No |
| 2025 | Best Animated Feature | Flow | 35% | No |
| 2025 | Best Adapted Screenplay | Conclave | 90% | Yes |
| 2025 | Best Actress | Mikey Madison | 27% | No |
| 2025 | Best Actor | Adrien Brody | 66% | Yes |
| 2024 | Best Visual Effects | Godzilla Minus One | 62% | Yes |
| 2024 | Best Supporting Actress | Da'Vine Joy Randolph | 92% | Yes |
| 2024 | Best Supporting Actor | Robert Downey Jr. | 91% | Yes |
| 2024 | Best Sound | The Zone of Interest | 24% | No |
| 2024 | Best Production Design | Poor Things | 62% | Yes |
| 2024 | Best Picture | Oppenheimer | 90% | Yes |
| 2024 | Best Original Song | What Was I Made For? | 85% | Yes |
| 2024 | Best Original Screenplay | Anatomy of a Fall | 65% | Yes |
| 2024 | Best Director | Christopher Nolan | 91% | Yes |
| 2024 | Best Costume Design | Poor Things | 43% | No |
| 2024 | Best Animated Feature | The Boy and the Heron | 29% | No |
| 2024 | Best Adapted Screenplay | American Fiction | 53% | Yes |
| 2024 | Best Actress | Emma Stone | 33% | No |
| 2024 | Best Actor | Cillian Murphy | 88% | Yes |
| 2023 | Best Supporting Actress | Jamie Lee Curtis | 37% | Yes |
| 2023 | Best Supporting Actor | Ke Huy Quan | 96% | Yes |
| 2023 | Best Picture | Everything Everywhere All at Once | 86% | Yes |
| 2023 | Best Original Screenplay | Everything Everywhere All At Once | 59% | Yes |
| 2023 | Best Director | Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert | 96% | Yes |
| 2023 | Best Adapted Screenplay | Women Talking | 54% | Yes |
| 2023 | Best Actress | Michelle Yeoh | 63% | Yes |
| 2023 | Best Actor | Brendan Fraser | 51% | Yes |
| 2022 | Best Supporting Actress | Ariana DeBose | 90% | Yes |
| 2022 | Best Supporting Actor | Troy Kotsur | 81% | Yes |
| 2022 | Best Picture | CODA | 48% | Yes |
| 2022 | Best Original Screenplay | Belfast | 34% | No |
| 2022 | Best Director | Jane Campion | 91% | Yes |
| 2022 | Best Adapted Screenplay | CODA | 52% | Yes |
| 2022 | Best Actress | Jessica Chastain | 54% | Yes |
| 2022 | Best Actor | Will Smith | 84% | Yes |
Download the data
Category-by-category results (CSV)
One row per ceremony and category. Probabilities are summary values (prices scaled to sum to 100%), not price histories. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.
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Methodology
- Markets. Every settled Kalshi Oscar category-winner series (
KXOSCARPIC,KXOSCARDIR,KXOSCARACTRand the rest, plus earlierOSCAR*events), from Kalshi’s public API. Nomination, win-count and other side markets are excluded. Where a category had two events in a year, the one with more trading is used. - Price. 24 hours before the winning contract closed (ceremony night): bid/ask midpoint when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade. Nominee prices are scaled to add up to 100%. Nominees with no price are left out.
- Winners. As settled by Kalshi, which follows the Academy’s announcement; see oscars.org.
- Limits. Five ceremonies; smaller categories trade thinly; the day-before price misses late swings. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 13, 2026, 11:30 AM ET.
Cite this research
Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, October 13). How Accurate Are Prediction Markets on the Oscars? Every Category Since 2022. https://predictionscout.com/research/oscars-prediction-market-accuracy/
For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/oscars-prediction-market-accuracy/)”
The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Market data: Kalshi. Winners: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.
Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.
Related: biggest upsets · accuracy scorecard · All research