The side Kalshi traders favored a day before the egg-price release was right in 16 of 20 months.
Kalshi asks each month whether the BLS average price of a dozen Grade A large eggs rose from the month before. Prices rose in 4 of 20 months scored. The latest BLS price is $2.27 (Sep 2026), down from a peak of $6.23 in Mar 2025. For Oct 2026 (BLS release Nov 10, 2026), the market gives a 40% chance that the price rose.
Kalshi market data and official statistics, pulled Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 AM ET. Updated daily and after each CPI release.
By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 AM ET
Key findings
- 16 of 20 months called right. We take the market price 24 hours before trading closed. When it was above 50¢ the market favored a rise; below 50¢, no rise.
- Brier score 0.126. Always guessing the historical share of rising months (4 of 20) would score 0.160, using hindsight. Lower is better.
- Prices fell from $6.23 to $2.27. The BLS average peaked in Mar 2025 during the bird-flu shortage.
- 2 months where BLS and Kalshi disagree on direction. See the note under the table.
Month-by-month scorecard
| Month | BLS release | Market chance of a rise, 24h before | Kalshi result | BLS avg price, dozen | BLS change vs prior month | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2026 | Oct 14, 2026 | 56% | No | $2.272 | +0.0% ✓ | 1,993 |
| Aug 2026 | Sep 11, 2026 | 55% | Yes | $2.272 | +3.8% ✓ | 6,299 |
| Jul 2026 | Aug 12, 2026 | 15% | No | $2.189 | +2.2% differs | 5,787 |
| Jun 2026 | Jul 14, 2026 | 12% | No | $2.141 | -2.3% ✓ | 9,327 |
| May 2026 | Jun 10, 2026 | 15% | No | $2.191 | -2.6% ✓ | 41,671 |
| Apr 2026 | May 12, 2026 | 12% | Yes | $2.250 | -4.2% differs | 5,736 |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 10, 2026 | 14% | No | $2.348 | -6.1% ✓ | 44,962 |
| Feb 2026 | Mar 11, 2026 | 10% | No | $2.500 | -3.0% ✓ | 32,738 |
| Jan 2026 | Feb 13, 2026 | 10% | No | $2.577 | -5.0% ✓ | 41,850 |
| Dec 2025 | Jan 13, 2026 | 17% | No | $2.712 | -5.2% ✓ | 46,989 |
| Nov 2025 | Dec 18, 2025 | 12% | No | $2.860 | 66,176 | |
| Oct 2025 | Nov 13, 2025 | 3% | No | 24,624 | ||
| Sep 2025 | Oct 15, 2025 | 8% | No | $3.488 | -2.8% ✓ | 73,117 |
| Aug 2025 | Sep 11, 2025 | 62% | No | $3.587 | -0.3% ✓ | 190,543 |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 12, 2025 | 16% | No | $3.599 | -4.7% ✓ | 97,931 |
| Jun 2025 | Jul 15, 2025 | 2% | No | $3.775 | -17.0% ✓ | 81,429 |
| May 2025 | Jun 11, 2025 | 2% | No | $4.548 | -11.2% ✓ | 113,182 |
| Apr 2025 | May 13, 2025 | 6% | No | $5.122 | -17.7% ✓ | 271,095 |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 10, 2025 | 17% | Yes | $6.227 | +5.6% ✓ | 285,863 |
| Feb 2025 | Mar 12, 2025 | 98% | Yes | $5.897 | +19.1% ✓ | 600,285 |
“Differs” marks months where the direction of the BLS average-price change today does not match how Kalshi settled (Apr 2026, Jul 2026). Kalshi settles on its own rules and the first published figure; we show both rather than pick one.
Download the data
Month-by-month scorecard (CSV)BLS egg prices (CSV)
One row per settled market period. Per-contract price histories are not included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.
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Methodology
- Markets. Kalshi’s monthly
KXEGGSmarkets (“Will egg prices rise by more than 0%?”), from Kalshi’s public API. Price 24 hours before trading closed: midpoint of bid and ask from hourly candles when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade, looking back up to 48 hours. - Official data. BLS average price data, “Eggs, grade A, large, per doz. in U.S. city average” (series APU0000708111), released with the CPI. Not seasonally adjusted.
- Scoring. A month counts as called right when the side priced above 50¢ won. Brier score is the mean squared gap between the price and the 0/1 result.
- Limits. Small sample (one market a month); some months traded thinly; BLS figures shown are current values, which can differ from the first print. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 15, 2026, 7:52 AM ET.
Cite this research
Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, October 15). Egg Prices vs. Prediction Markets: How Well Did Kalshi Call Each Month?. https://predictionscout.com/research/egg-price-prediction-market-accuracy/
For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/egg-price-prediction-market-accuracy/)”
The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Market data: Kalshi. Egg prices: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with egg prices from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.
Related: CPI scorecard · markets vs official numbers · All research