Travel Advisory Prediction Markets vs State Department Levels

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 23, 2026, 8:38 AM ET

Key findings

• 25 places at Level 4, 27 at Level 3, 87 at Level 2, 88 at Level 1 in today’s State Department feed.
• Most likely downgrades: Uganda 36%; Democratic Republic of the Congo 12%; Syria 9%. The other 15 are at 9% or less.
• Taiwan: Before Jan 1, 2027: 5%; Before Jan 1, 2028: 20%; Before Jan 1, 2029: 30%; Before Jan 1, 2030: 44%.
• Newest Level 4: Yemen, published Oct 9, 2026.

How these markets work

The levels. The State Department rates each country from Level 1 (exercise normal precautions) to Level 4 (do not travel). Each advisory carries a publication date and is reissued when the level or the text changes, and periodically even when nothing changes.

Downgrade markets. Yes if State issues, updates or reaffirms an advisory at Level 3 or lower for the named country after the market opened and before January 1, 2027. The level must be the one for the whole country, not a region. A reissued Level 4 advisory does not count.

Taiwan. Yes if State issues a Level 4 advisory for Taiwan before each deadline. The ladder runs from 2027 to 2030.

How it settles. On the official travel advisories site, using the publication date shown there.

What moves the price. Ceasefires, embassy reopenings, elections and security incidents; for Taiwan, military activity in the Strait. Advisories are often reissued after embassy staffing changes, so an ordered departure being lifted is a common lead-in to a lower level.

Worked example

On Oct 20, 2026 the State Department reissued its France advisory at Level 2. For a country with a downgrade market, an update like that, at Level 3 or lower, would resolve the market Yes on its publication date. Lebanon’s advisory was last published on Aug 20, 2026 at Level 4; if it is reissued at Level 4 again, the market stays open; if it is reissued at Level 3, it pays Yes.

Will a Level 4 country be lowered before 2027?

Current level and last publication date come from the State Department feed today.

Taiwan to Level 4?

Taiwan is at Level 1 today (last published Nov 24, 2025).

Every Level 4 advisory today

25 places carry a Do Not Travel advisory. Newest first.

Level changes we have recorded

Since our first saved copy of the feed (2026-10-21): none yet.

Download the data

State Department advisories today (CSV)Travel-advisory markets today (CSV)

Every advisory’s current level and date, and today’s market prices. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Methodology

• Advisories. The State Department’s public travel advisory feed, read daily. Level and date are parsed from each advisory’s title and publication date. We save each day’s levels to date any change.
• Markets. Kalshi KXTRAVELDOWNGRADE and KXTAIWANLVL4; bid/ask midpoint.
• Limits. Advisory dates are publication dates; State sometimes reissues with no change in level. A price is a crowd estimate, not a forecast by PredictionScout. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 23, 2026, 8:38 AM ET.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with advisory data from the U.S. Department of State. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

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