Data Center Moratorium Prediction Markets vs State Bills

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 23, 2026, 8:38 AM ET

Key findings

• 38% before 2027. Before Jul 1, 2027: 58%; Before Jan 1, 2028: 90%.
• 32 data-center bills in 16 jurisdictions also mention a moratorium (plus 29 budgets and other broad bills that use both words); 29 are still at introduction, 1 has passed at least one chamber and 2 are marked failed.
• Most active: MI (5), NY (4), VA (3), PA (3), US (2).
• State-specific bills: Virginia 40%; Tennessee 34%; Maine 82%; Illinois 70%.

How these markets work

The question. The main ladder asks whether any state enacts a law that prohibits, suspends or pauses the approval, permitting, grid connection or operation of new data centers (or a defined class of them, such as those above a power threshold), with deadlines of January 1, 2027, July 1, 2027 and January 1, 2028.

What counts. Only legislation passed by a state legislature and fully enacted: signed, allowed to become law, or passed over a veto. Passage by one chamber, executive orders, utility-commission decisions, ballot measures and local ordinances do not count. A law that only limits tax breaks, sets electricity rates, sets siting standards or orders a study does not count either. Kalshi’s separate state-by-state series uses a broader definition that also counts statewide executive or regulatory orders.

How it settles. On the enacted text and the official record of the state legislature.

What moves the price. Bills clearing committees and floor votes, governors’ statements, legislative calendars (most legislatures are out of session late in the year, which matters for a January 1 deadline), and grid and water news about large data-center projects.

Worked example: Delaware SB 353

Delaware’s SB 353 would have set a moratorium on data-center development. On June 30, 2026 a motion to suspend the rules to consider it failed in the state Senate, 6 to 15. Because it never passed both chambers and was never signed, it could not have resolved the “any state” market Yes. A bill like Pennsylvania’s SB 1345, which would let municipalities adopt a temporary moratorium, raises a different question: a law that only authorizes local moratoria is not itself a statewide pause, so whether it would count depends on its final text and Kalshi’s reading of the rules.

The markets today

State-specific data-center bills

Kalshi’s state-law series includes several data-center measures with their own, often broader, definitions (for example, any binding size or load threshold in Maine).

In the state-by-state moratorium series, only these states show a live price: Wisconsin 32%; Washington 10%; Vermont 8%; Virginia 12%; South Carolina 6%; Pennsylvania 9%; Oklahoma 12%; Ohio 6%; New Mexico 70%; New Jersey 12%; New Hampshire 58%; North Carolina 6%; Minnesota 11%; Michigan 46%; Maine 65%; Maryland 20%; Massachusetts 7%; Kansas 10%; Indiana 8%; Illinois 8%; Iowa 13%; Georgia 18%; Florida 8%; Delaware 8%; Connecticut 6%; Colorado 9%; California 28%; Arizona 8%; Alaska 6%. The rest have no two-sided quote.

The bills

Bills from LegiScan’s current-session national search for “data center” AND moratorium whose title is about data centers, newest action first. The search also returned 29 broader bills (mostly state budgets and energy packages) that mention both terms somewhere in the text; they are in the CSV but not listed here. Some listed bills mention moratoria in order to limit local ones. Status is LegiScan’s.

Download the data

Data-center moratorium bills (LegiScan search) (CSV)Data-center law markets today (CSV)

Every bill in the search with its status, and today’s market prices. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Methodology

• Bills. LegiScan national full-text search for "data center" AND moratorium in current sessions (all states and Congress), with each bill’s status from LegiScan’s bill record. LegiScan data is licensed CC BY 4.0. We do not judge whether a bill would satisfy Kalshi’s rules.
• Markets. Kalshi KXDCMORATORIUMLAW, the data-center items in KXLOCALLAW, and KXDCMORATORIUMSTATES; bid/ask midpoint.
• Limits. Keyword search is broad and can miss bills that use other words (pause, suspension). Bill status is LegiScan’s summary; check the legislature’s own record. A price is a crowd estimate, not a forecast by PredictionScout. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 23, 2026, 8:38 AM ET.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with bill data from LegiScan. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

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