IPO Prediction Markets: When Will OpenAI, Anthropic, Stripe and SpaceX Go Public?

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 23, 2026, 11:10 AM ET

Key findings

• Anthropic: market middle before Dec 1, 2026 (1,882,998 contracts traded).
• OpenAI: market middle before Jun 1, 2027 (513,245 contracts traded).
• Starlink (SpaceX): market middle after the last listed date (244,422 contracts traded).
• Anduril: market middle after the last listed date (91,065 contracts traded).
• Oura: market middle before Oct 1, 2027 (58,527 contracts traded).
• In the “who will IPO in 2026” list, the highest-priced name is Anthropic.

The date ladders today

Each company has contracts for “before” a series of dates. The market middle is the first date priced at 50% or more; “after the last listed date” means no listed date reaches 50%. Sorted by contracts traded.

Market middle: for “above X” ladders, the point where the implied chance crosses 50% (prices forced to fall as the threshold rises, interpolated between rungs). Prices are the bid/ask midpoint when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade. Events with fewer than 500 contracts traded show “thin trading” instead of a middle, and ladders whose quoted prices contradict each other show “prices out of order”. Pulled Oct 23, 2026, 11:10 AM ET.

“Who will IPO in 2026?”

A separate list market pays on each named company that completes an IPO in calendar 2026, using the same test. Each name is its own yes-or-no contract, so the chances do not add to 100%.

2,110,876 contracts traded across the list; top 10 names by price shown.

How an IPO is “confirmed”

Kalshi resolves these markets Yes the moment any one of three things happens: the SEC declares the company’s registration statement (Form S-1, or F-1 for a foreign issuer) effective; the offering is priced; or an exchange assigns the company a ticker. The stock does not have to start trading before the deadline. Some series are worded “officially announce an IPO”, but their rules use the same three-part test, so a press release saying a company is “exploring” an IPO does not count, and neither does a confidential draft filing (DRS).

What moves them. A public S-1 is the clearest signal: it usually comes after a confidential draft and at least 15 days before the roadshow. Before that, traders react to reports of bank mandates, secondary-share sales that put a value on the company, and market conditions. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac already file 10-Ks and 10-Qs as SEC registrants while in federal conservatorship; an IPO for them would also depend on decisions by their regulator and the Treasury.

Worked example

Suppose a company files a public S-1 on Feb. 3, the SEC declares it effective on March 10, the deal prices that evening and shares begin trading March 11. A “before March 1” contract resolves No (the S-1 was public but not effective); a “before April 1” contract resolves Yes on March 10. If instead the exchange announced the ticker on Feb. 25, ahead of the effective date, “before March 1” would resolve Yes, because a ticker assignment is enough.

Download the data

IPO timing markets (one row per company) (CSV)

One row per company: first date priced 50%+, contracts listed and traded, and EDGAR status where checked. No contract prices. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Methodology

• Markets. Open Kalshi IPO date events (one per company, nearest close) and the KXIPO 2026 list, from the public API. Prices are shown as quoted; a few ladders are not perfectly in order.
• SEC check. EDGAR submissions API for companies with a known registrant CIK (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Stripe), looking for S-1, F-1, DRS (once made public) and 424B4 forms. Other companies have no EDGAR registrant record we can match reliably, so the column is blank.
• No prices in the CSV. One row per event.
• Limits. Prices reflect traders’ views, not company plans. Confidential draft filings are invisible until made public, so an S-1 can appear with little warning. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 23, 2026, 11:10 AM ET.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with filing status from SEC EDGAR. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

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