Prediction markets let you buy and sell contracts on real-world outcomes — elections, Fed decisions, sports, awards shows. The mechanics are simple once someone explains them without jargon. That’s what these guides do.
Every guide is written in plain English, cites primary sources (CFTC filings, court rulings, IRS guidance, platform fee schedules), and gets updated when the facts change. No guide on this site assumes you already know how futures exchanges work.
New Here? Read These Three First
If you’ve never placed a prediction market trade, this sequence takes you from zero to your first funded position:
- What Are Prediction Markets? — How event contracts work, how prices become probabilities, and why a contract trading at 62¢ means the market thinks there’s a 62% chance. Start here if the whole concept is new.
- Are Prediction Markets Legal? — The short answer is yes, on federally regulated platforms — but several states are fighting it. What’s legal where you live, and which court cases matter.
- Your First Prediction Market Trade — A step-by-step walkthrough: opening an account, funding it, reading a market, placing the order, and what happens at settlement.
Understand the Basics
What Are Prediction Markets?
The foundation guide. Event contracts, yes/no pricing, settlement, and why prediction market odds are often sharper than polls or pundits.
Prediction Markets vs Sports Betting
Both let you put money on outcomes, but the structure is completely different: peer-to-peer exchanges vs. betting against the house. Fees, taxes, regulation, and market variety compared side by side.
Legal and Regulatory
Are Prediction Markets Legal?
Federal law, state challenges, and a state-by-state availability breakdown. Updated as court rulings come in. Pair it with our legality checker tool to see exactly what’s available in your state.
CFTC and Prediction Markets Explained
What “CFTC-regulated” actually means for your money: Designated Contract Market status, fund segregation, and how to verify a platform’s registration yourself.
Money and Taxes
Prediction Market Tax Guide
Yes, winnings are taxable. Which forms each platform sends (and doesn’t send), how the IRS treats event contracts, and how to track your own P&L so tax season isn’t a scramble.
Fee Calculator
Not a guide, but the fastest way to understand what trading actually costs: enter a trade and see the exact fee on each platform side by side.
Ready to Compare Platforms?
Once you understand how prediction markets work, the next question is where to trade. Our platform reviews score every major platform across 9 categories using a published methodology, and our platform rankings put them side by side.