Down-Ballot Statewide Office and State Supreme Court Prediction Markets for 2026

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 23, 2026, 10:20 AM ET

Key findings

• 88 statewide office races, 15 supreme court contests, 9 Georgia first-round markets. All settle on certified results.
• Busiest: New York Attorney General, 802,175 contracts traded. Letitia James 92%; Saritha Komatireddy 8%.
• Closest: 16 races where no outcome is above 65%: Georgia Secretary of State (Penny Brown Reynolds 52%); Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction (Kimberly Yee 53%); Indiana Secretary of State (Beau Bayh 54%); Texas Railroad Commissioner (Jon Rosenthal 54%); Ohio Secretary of State (Robert Sprague 55%); Georgia Attorney General (Tanya Miller 56%).
• Georgia runoffs: the market puts the highest runoff risk on State Superintendent of Schools, with a 8% chance nobody clears 50%. A 2022-style split, with the leader at 49.44%, would force a December 1 runoff.

How these markets work

Who wins. Most offices are a pair of party contracts (“Will the Democratic party win the Secretary of State election in Georgia?”) or one contract per candidate. A contract pays Yes if that party’s or candidate’s nominee is the certified winner. A few, like the Arizona Corporation Commission and the Michigan Supreme Court, pay on the party split across two seats.

Settlement. Kalshi uses the state’s certified result. Recounts and contests can push settlement into December or later, and in states that require a majority, a runoff decides the winner.

What moves the price. These races get little polling, so prices track the top of the ticket, the state’s partisan lean, incumbency, fundraising and, close to the end, early-vote data. A down-ballot race usually moves with the governor or Senate race on the same ballot, though ticket-splitting does happen.

Worked example: how a close down-ballot race settles

In 2022 Arizona’s attorney general race was decided by 280 votes out of about 2.5 million, after a mandatory statewide recount certified in late December 2022 (Arizona Secretary of State, 2022 recount canvass). Under these rules a “Democratic party wins” contract would have stayed open until that recount was certified and then paid Yes, even though media outlets did not call the race on election night. A race that close can stay open for weeks after Election Day.

Statewide office markets, today

Chances are bid/ask midpoints where there is a two-sided quote no wider than 10¢. “(no quote)” means the outcome has no such quote. Races are sorted by volume.

State supreme court races and retention votes

Many states fill supreme court seats by election. Contested elections (North Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Alabama, Michigan, Montana, Washington) work like any other race: the certified winner’s contract pays Yes. Some are partisan; Michigan, Montana and Washington are formally nonpartisan, so the contracts name candidates, and Michigan’s parties nominate candidates who appear without a label. Retention elections (Kansas, Missouri, Wyoming) ask voters only whether a sitting justice should stay. The contract pays Yes if the justice gets the share of yes votes state law requires, a simple majority in all three. Justices rarely lose retention votes, so these markets usually price retention high, and they trade thinly.

What moves the price. Court races get almost no public polling. Prices follow the partisan lean of the state, spending by outside groups, endorsements and, in retention votes, organized campaigns against a justice.

Worked example. If Kansas Justice Eric Rosen receives more yes than no votes in the certified canvass, the retention contract pays Yes. A 49.9% yes share pays No, and he would leave the bench at the end of his term.

Georgia’s first round: will anyone clear 50%?

Georgia requires a majority to win a general election (O.C.G.A. § 21-2-501). If no candidate gets more than 50% of the votes cast, the top two meet in a runoff four weeks later, on December 1, 2026. Kalshi’s KXGA1ROUND markets pay Yes if any candidate clears that threshold in the first round. They pay on the arithmetic, not on which party wins, and a third-party candidate taking 2–3% is often enough to force a runoff in a close race.

Worked example: 2022 Senate. The Clerk of the House reports the November 8, 2022 general election as Raphael Warnock 1,946,117, Herschel Walker 1,908,442 and Chase Oliver (Libertarian) 81,365, out of 3,935,924 votes. Warnock led with 49.44%, short of a majority, so a “will anyone win in the first round” contract would have paid No. In the December 6 runoff Warnock won 1,820,633 to 1,721,244.

Chance of a first-round winner, today, by office (the runoff chance is the remainder):

Scoring after certification

We save every market daily and will store a final snapshot on the evening of November 3. Once states certify, and after any Georgia runoffs on December 1, each market will be scored against the certified winner.

Download the data

Statewide office markets today (CSV)State supreme court markets today (CSV)Georgia first-round markets today (CSV)

Today’s prices for every outcome, one row per outcome. No price histories are included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Methodology

• Markets. Every open Kalshi series for 2026 secretary of state, attorney general, lieutenant governor and other statewide row offices, state supreme courts and KXGA1ROUND, read from the public API with full paging. Combination markets (such as Texas Railroad Commissioner and Senate together) are left out.
• Prices. Bid/ask midpoint, only where the two-sided spread is 10¢ or less.
• Certified results. Georgia 2022 counts from the Clerk of the House’s “Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 8, 2022”; the Arizona 2022 example from the Arizona Secretary of State’s recount canvass.
• Scoring. Daily snapshots are stored; scoring begins once each state certifies.
• Limits. Nothing has settled yet; these are today’s odds, not a track record. Many down-ballot and court markets trade thinly, and outcomes without a live quote are shown without a price. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 23, 2026, 10:20 AM ET.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with certified results from the Clerk of the House. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

Related: state legislature markets · vote-share and margin markets · All research