Kalshi’s daily 10-year Treasury markets settled on Treasury’s official yield 660 times out of 660.
Kalshi listed a daily market on the 10-year Treasury par yield from Feb 14, 2023 to Jul 1, 2026. We checked every settlement against the Treasury’s daily par yield curve and scored the market a day ahead. The 10-year yield was 5.19% on Oct 14, 2026; a Kalshi market gives a 3% chance it hits 5.50% by Oct. 31.
Kalshi market data and official statistics, pulled Oct 15, 2026, 7:54 AM ET. Updated daily.
By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:54 AM ET
Key findings
- Settlements match Treasury. 660 of 660 settled days match the official 10-year par yield to the basis point.
- A day ahead, the market did not beat “yesterday’s yield.” On 77 days since Jan 1, 2023 with trading, the market’s expected yield 24 hours before missed by a median 4.0 basis points. Simply using the prior day’s official yield missed by 3.0. The market was closer on 32 days.
- The most-traded bracket rarely hit. Brackets are only 3 basis points wide; the highest-priced bracket a day before contained the official yield on 18 of 77 days (23%).
- The 10-year is at 5.19%. This year’s high so far is 5.31% (Oct 5, 2026). Trading in the daily markets was thin: a median of 517 contracts a day.
Open 10-year markets
| Market | Implied chance |
|---|---|
| 10-year yield hits 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026 | 3% |
| Will the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread be above .7% between Issuance and December 31, 2026? Above .7% | 43% |
| Will the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread be above .8% between Issuance and December 31, 2026? Above .8% | 6% |
| Will the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread be above .9% between Issuance and December 31, 2026? Above .9% | 3% |
| Will the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread be above 1.00% between Issuance and December 31, 2026? Above 1.00% | 5% |
Last scored days
| Date | Market expected yield, 24h before | Prior day official | Official 10Y (settlement) | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 29, 2026 | 4.383% | 4.38% | 4.38% | 1,870 |
| Jun 22, 2026 | 4.481% | 4.46% | 4.51% | 4,326 |
| Jun 15, 2026 | 4.459% | 4.48% | 4.47% | 796 |
| Jun 8, 2026 | 4.554% | 4.55% | 4.56% | 5,172 |
| Jun 1, 2026 | 4.459% | 4.45% | 4.47% | 372 |
| May 11, 2026 | 4.325% | 4.38% | 4.42% | 1,632 |
| May 4, 2026 | 4.347% | 4.39% | 4.45% | 1,339 |
| Apr 27, 2026 | 4.315% | 4.31% | 4.35% | 4,010 |
| Apr 20, 2026 | 4.256% | 4.26% | 4.26% | 7,897 |
| Apr 13, 2026 | 4.324% | 4.31% | 4.30% | 4,367 |
| Apr 6, 2026 | 4.318% | 4.35% | 4.34% | 2,727 |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 4.438% | 4.44% | 4.35% | 9,397 |
| Mar 23, 2026 | 4.380% | 4.39% | 4.34% | 8,289 |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 4.278% | 4.28% | 4.23% | 3,265 |
| Mar 9, 2026 | 4.142% | 4.15% | 4.12% | 5,759 |
Download the data
One row per settled daily market. Market expected yield is a summary statistic; per-contract prices are not included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.
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Methodology
- Markets. Kalshi’s daily 10-year yield series (
KXTNOTED, earlierTNOTED): 3-basis-point brackets on the Treasury par yield for one day, from Kalshi’s public API. Live markets:KX10YR550PCTandKX10Y2Y. - Official data. The Treasury’s daily par yield curve rates, 10-year column.
- Day-ahead score. For days since Jan 1, 2023 with trading, we price each traded bracket 24 hours before close (bid/ask midpoint when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise last trade), scale the prices to 100% and take the probability-weighted bracket midpoint. The benchmark is the prior trading day’s official yield.
- Limits. Daily brackets traded thinly, and the series ended in July 2026; the expected yield uses only brackets that traded. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 15, 2026, 7:54 AM ET.
Cite this research
Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, October 15). 10-Year Treasury Yield Prediction Markets vs. the Official Treasury Rate. https://predictionscout.com/research/10-year-treasury-yield-prediction-markets/
For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/10-year-treasury-yield-prediction-markets/)”
The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Market data: Kalshi. Yields: U.S. Department of the Treasury.
Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with yields from the U.S. Treasury. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.
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