CDC counts 4,080 confirmed measles cases in 2026 so far. Kalshi traders expect about 7,000 by year-end.
That is already 1.8 times the 2,289 cases CDC reported for all of 2025, as of Oct 8, 2026. The market figure is the midpoint implied by Kalshi’s “above X cases” contracts. A separate Kalshi market gives a 80% chance that the U.S. is reported to have lost its measles elimination status before Jan. 1, 2027.
CDC data and Kalshi prices, pulled Oct 15, 2026, 8:00 AM ET. Updated daily (CDC updates weekly).
By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 15, 2026, 8:00 AM ET
Key findings
- 4,080 cases in 2026 through Oct 8, 2026. CDC reports 42 new outbreaks this year. The full-year 2025 total was 2,289; in 2024 it was 285.
- Market expects about 7,000 cases for 2026. “above 6,000” 76%; “above 8,000” 22%; “above 10,000” 10%. Lower thresholds already settled YES.
- Thresholds crossed this year. 500 by Mar 11, 2026; 4,000 by Oct 13, 2026 (date the Kalshi contract closed).
- 2025: early count vs. final count. Kalshi settled 2025 in the 2,051–2,100 range. CDC’s count now stands at 2,289. Kalshi settled on the count available at settlement; CDC’s total has risen since.
- 2023: early count vs. final count. Kalshi settled 2023 in the 0–50 range (recorded value 41). CDC’s count now stands at 59. Kalshi settled on the count available at settlement; CDC’s total has risen since.
Past years: what Kalshi settled vs. CDC’s count today
| Year | Kalshi settled range (recorded value) | CDC count today | CDC count in range? | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2,051–2,100 | 2,289 | outside | 1,822,603 |
| 2023 | 0–50 (41) | 59 | outside | 11,032 |
| 2024 | 201–350 | 285 | ✓ | 74,034 |
The settled range is read from which “above X” contracts paid out. CDC assigns cases to a year by rash-onset week and keeps confirming cases after the year ends.
2026: the market right now
| Contract | Implied chance |
|---|---|
| Above 6,000 cases in 2026 | 76% |
| Above 8,000 cases in 2026 | 22% |
| Above 10,000 cases in 2026 | 10% |
Elimination status: Kalshi’s market on whether a source agency reports that PAHO’s Regional Verification Commission found endemic measles transmission re-established in the U.S. before Jan. 1, 2027, trades at 80%.
Download the data
CDC count history (CSV)Kalshi annual markets vs CDC (CSV)
The CDC history file grows by one row each time CDC updates its page (weekly). Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.
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Methodology
- CDC data. Confirmed cases from CDC’s Measles Cases and Outbreaks page, updated weekly (cases notified by noon Thursday). Totals include cases among international visitors. Historical full-year totals are as stated on that page.
- Markets. Kalshi’s annual case-count series (
KXMEASLES, earlierMEASLES) andKXUSAMEASLESELIMINATE, from Kalshi’s public API. The implied full-year total is where the chance of “above X” crosses 50%, interpolated between thresholds using bid/ask midpoints. Settled ranges are inferred from which contracts paid out. - Limits. Annual markets give only a few settled data points; CDC counts are preliminary and change; Kalshi settles on the count available at settlement. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 15, 2026, 8:00 AM ET.
Cite this research
Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, October 15). Measles Cases vs. Prediction Markets: CDC's Count and What Traders Expect for 2026. https://predictionscout.com/research/measles-prediction-markets-vs-cdc/
For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/measles-prediction-markets-vs-cdc/)”
The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Case counts: U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Market data: Kalshi.
Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with case counts from the CDC. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.
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