89M fish
Alaska’s preliminary count puts the 2026 commercial salmon harvest at 89.0 million fish. Maine landed 78.8 million pounds of lobster in 2025; the 2026 total comes out in early 2027. Kalshi has markets on both.
Kalshi market data and Maine Department of Marine Resources; Alaska Department of Fish and Game, pulled Nov 12, 2026, 8:03 AM ET. Updated daily.
By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Nov 12, 2026, 8:03 AM ET
Key findings
- Alaska 2026 preliminary salmon harvest: 89.0 million fish.
- Maine 2025 lobster landings: 78,826,683 pounds.
The markets
| Market | Closes | Market middle | Contracts (chance) | Latest official figure | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine lobster landings, 2026 | 2027-03-31 | 73.6719 | >65: 84% · >70: 74% · >75: 42% · >80: 16% · >85: 11% | 78.8 million lb in 2025 (2026 not yet reported) | 114,509 |
| Alaska commercial salmon harvest, 2026 | 2027-01-14 | 9.78409e+07 | >8.5e+07: 0% · >9e+07: 96% · >9.5e+07: 61% · >1e+08: 17% · >1.05e+08: 8% | 89.0 million fish (2026 preliminary) | 43,032 |
Maine lobster landings, 2026
| Level | Chance | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|
| Above 55 million pounds | 98% | 18,436 |
| Above 60 million pounds | 88% | 1,376 |
| Above 65 million pounds | 84% | 2,705 |
| Above 70 million pounds | 74% | 13,360 |
| Above 75 million pounds | 42% | 9,207 |
| Above 80 million pounds | 16% | 18,858 |
| Above 85 million pounds | 11% | 39,287 |
| Above 90 million pounds | 6% | 11,281 |
Alaska commercial salmon harvest, 2026
| Level | Chance | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|
| At least 75 million | 99% | 50 |
| At least 80 million | 0% | 0 |
| At least 85 million | 0% | 0 |
| At least 90 million | 96% | 3,282 |
| At least 95 million | 61% | 2,652 |
| At least 100 million | 17% | 6,154 |
| At least 105 million | 8% | 2,100 |
| At least 110 million | 10% | 5,947 |
| At least 115 million | 14% | 6,416 |
| At least 120 million | 8% | 6,083 |
| At least 125 million | 6% | 3,311 |
| At least 130 million | 21% | 479 |
| At least 135 million | 12% | 443 |
| At least 140 million | 5% | 6,108 |
| At least 145 million | 0% | 0 |
| At least 150 million | 16% | 8 |
Market middle: for “above X” ladders, the point where the implied chance crosses 50% (prices forced to fall as the threshold rises, interpolated between rungs). Prices are the bid/ask midpoint when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade. Events with fewer than 500 contracts traded show “thin trading” instead of a middle, and ladders whose quoted prices contradict each other show “prices out of order”. Pulled Nov 12, 2026, 8:03 AM ET.
How they settle
Lobster: the Maine Department of Marine Resources’ total commercial lobster landings for calendar 2026, in pounds, from dealer reports. DMR usually releases the annual figure in late winter or early spring (the 2025 figure was 78,826,683 pounds). Salmon: the Alaska Department of Fish and Game’s statewide commercial harvest of all five salmon species for the 2026 season, in number of fish. ADF&G posts preliminary in-season totals and a season summary; final figures can shift slightly as fish tickets are processed.
What moves it
Maine landings depend on water temperature and the timing of the summer shed, the number of boats fishing, and the price at the dock. Landings have fallen from a peak of about 132 million pounds in 2016. Alaska’s total is dominated by pink salmon, which run in two-year cycles (odd years are usually much larger in Southeast and Prince William Sound), and by Bristol Bay sockeye.
Worked example
With the 2026 Alaska season largely over, the preliminary 89.0 million fish is a strong guide: a contract for “at least 90 million” needs about 989 thousand more fish to be counted in late processing, which is why it trades well below the lower levels. For lobster, a contract at “above 80 million pounds” needs 2026 to beat 2025 by about 1.5%.
Download the data
Lobster & Salmon markets (one row per event) (CSV)
One row per live event: market middle, contracts listed and traded, and the latest official value. No contract prices or price histories. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.
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Methodology
- Markets. Open Kalshi events for each series, read from the public API. Prices are bid/ask midpoints when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade.
- Official values. Maine Department of Marine Resources commercial landings data (2025 lobster); Alaska Department of Fish and Game 2026 preliminary commercial salmon harvest. Both are entered by hand from the agencies’ published figures and checked at each release.
- No prices in the CSV. One row per event: market middle, contracts listed and traded, and the latest official value.
- Limits. Market middles are snapshots, not forecasts we endorse. Official values shown are the latest published, not necessarily the period each market settles on. Thinly traded events are flagged. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Nov 12, 2026, 8:03 AM ET.
Cite this research
Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, November 12). Lobster and Salmon Harvest Prediction Markets vs Official Counts. https://predictionscout.com/research/lobster-salmon-harvest-prediction-markets/
For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/lobster-salmon-harvest-prediction-markets/)”
The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Market data: Kalshi. Official data: Maine Department of Marine Resources; Alaska Department of Fish and Game.
Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.
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