Shipping Chokepoint Prediction Markets vs IMF PortWatch: Hormuz, Suez, Bab el-Mandeb, Panama

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 23, 2026, 8:35 AM ET

Key findings

• 37 of 59 settlements match today’s PortWatch data. For those weeks, the total Kalshi settled on equals the sum of PortWatch’s daily transit calls for the same Monday–Sunday week as published today. The other 22 differ from today’s figures, by a median of 8 transits. Kalshi’s terms fix the number at expiration and ignore later revisions, so any later change to PortWatch’s daily counts would show up as a gap like these; we cannot see PortWatch’s figures as first published, so we show both.
• The market beat “same as last week” in 25 of 47 weeks. At the start of each week, the market’s median missed the final count by a median 7.6%; simply repeating the previous week’s total missed by 8.3%.
• Traffic against 2025. Latest full week vs the 2025 weekly average: Hormuz 26 vs 598 (-96%); Suez Canal 310 vs 270 (+15%); Bab el-Mandeb 185 vs 234 (-21%); Panama Canal 194 vs 218 (-11%).
• Contracts. Of 389 “above X” contracts priced at the start of their week, the side above 50¢ was right 332 times (85%).

How the chokepoint markets work

Each week Kalshi lists a ladder of “more than X transit calls” contracts for a chokepoint. A transit call is one ship passing through, as detected by PortWatch from ships’ satellite-tracked AIS signals. Each contract pays $1 if the week’s total is above its line. The week runs Monday to Sunday, and the total is the sum of PortWatch’s daily counts. PortWatch updates weekly, on Tuesdays at 9 AM ET, so the markets settle no earlier than the Tuesday after the week ends.

What drives the number. Security incidents and insurance costs (the Red Sea and the Gulf), canal restrictions (the Panama Canal’s depend on water levels in Gatun Lake), and the normal ebb and flow of tanker and container schedules. PortWatch counts are estimates from AIS data: ships that switch off their transponders are not counted, and any change PortWatch makes to a day’s count after a contract expires does not affect that contract.

Reading the tables. “Market median” is the count where the implied chance crosses 50%, from prices at the start of the week (or one hour after the market opened, if later). “Previous week” is the naive forecast we compare it with. Our PortWatch total is today’s sum of the same seven days.

A worked example. For the Suez Canal in the week of Oct 12, 2026, the market median at the start of the week was 287 transit calls; the week before had 292. Kalshi settled on 310, so the market was further off than repeating last week.

This week’s markets vs PortWatch so far

Live Kalshi prices as of the update time. PortWatch data lags by several days, so “so far” usually covers only part of the week. Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org).

Every settled week

Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org). Weekly totals are PredictionScout’s sums of PortWatch’s daily transit calls; that summing is the only transformation.

Download the data

Settled weeks (CSV)Weekly PortWatch totals (CSV)

One row per settled chokepoint-week, and weekly PortWatch totals since January 2025. PortWatch-derived columns are subject to the IMF’s terms for statistical data, not CC BY; cite “Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org)”. No price histories are included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Methodology

• Markets. Kalshi’s weekly Strait of Hormuz (KXHORMUZWEEKLY), Suez Canal (KXSUEZWEEKLY), Bab el-Mandeb Strait (KXBABELMANDEBWEEKLY), Panama Canal (KXPANAMAWEEKLY) series, from Kalshi’s public API. Their rules name IMF PortWatch and define the total as the sum of daily counts over the stated week.
• Official data. Daily transit calls (n_total) from IMF PortWatch’s public Daily Chokepoint Transit Calls layer. Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org). PortWatch data are published under the IMF’s terms for statistical data, not CC BY; our only change is summing days into weeks.
• Prices. Each contract’s price at midnight ET at the start of its week, or one hour after the market opened if later (hourly-candle bid/ask midpoint, or last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢; 48-hour look-back). Prices are forced to fall as the line rises; the median is interpolated where the implied chance crosses 50%.
• Benchmark. The previous week’s PortWatch total, as published today.
• Limits. PortWatch counts are AIS-based estimates and can be revised; ships that turn off their transponders are missed; only a few months of weekly markets have settled, most with thin trading. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 23, 2026, 8:35 AM ET.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with transit data from IMF PortWatch (Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org)). All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

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