Kalshi’s GDP markets missed the first estimate by a median 0.6 points in 13 quarters.
A day before each BEA advance estimate since 2023, we compare the market’s median forecast with the number BEA published. The number came in above the market 6 times and below it 7 times. For the next quarter (BEA advance estimate Oct 29 at 8:30 AM ET), Kalshi’s market median is 3.3%.
Kalshi market data and official statistics, pulled Oct 15, 2026, 7:50 AM ET. Updated daily.
By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:50 AM ET
Key findings
- Typical miss: 0.6 points. In the median quarter the advance estimate landed 0.64 percentage points from the market median a day before (average 0.74).
- Threshold contracts were right 85% of the time. Of 123 “GDP above X%” contracts, the side priced above 50¢ a day before won 104.
- Biggest miss: Q4 2025. Market median 3.3%, BEA advance estimate 1.4%.
- Settlements check out. 13 of 13 scored settlements match BEA’s first-published number in ALFRED. One quarter (Q3 2025) is excluded: Kalshi settled it before BEA’s shutdown-delayed release.
Real GDP growth, advance estimate
Next release: US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
Trading closes Friday, October 30, 2026, 8:29 AM ET. Market median right now: 3.3%. 245,761 contracts traded so far. As of Oct 15, 2026, 7:50 AM ET. Market on Kalshi.
| Contract | Implied chance |
|---|---|
| Above 1.0% | 98% |
| Above 1.5% | 96% |
| Above 2.0% | 92% |
| Above 2.5% | 80% |
| Above 3.0% | 70% |
| Above 3.5% | 37% |
| Above 4.0% | 24% |
Across 13 releases from Jan 26, 2023 to Jul 30, 2026, the market’s median a day before was off by 0.64 pt in a typical release (median miss) and 0.74 pt on average. The number came in above the market median 6 times and below it 7 times. Of 123 individual “above X” contracts, the side priced above 50¢ a day out was right 104 times (85%).
| Period | Released | Market median 24h before | Actual (Kalshi settlement) | Official first release | Actual minus median | Contracts called right | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | Jul 30, 2026 | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% ✓ | -0.29 pt | 8/9 | 312,319 |
| Q1 2026 | Apr 30, 2026 | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.0% ✓ | -0.41 pt | 7/8 | 981,370 |
| Q4 2025 | Feb 20, 2026 | 3.3% | 1.4% | 1.4% ✓ | -1.89 pt | 11/16 | 3,686,152 |
| Q3 2025 | Oct 30, 2025 | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% differs | Settled Nov 24, 2025 at 3.8 before BEA published its delayed Q3 2025 estimate (4.3% on Dec 23, 2025); not scored | 8/9 | 2,240,243 |
| Q2 2025 | Jul 30, 2025 | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% ✓ | +0.57 pt | 13/14 | 3,422,182 |
| Q1 2025 | Apr 30, 2025 | 0.5% | -0.3% | -0.3% ✓ | -0.75 pt | 9/10 | 2,467,855 |
| Q3 2024 | Oct 30, 2024 | 3.3% | 2.8% | 2.8% ✓ | -0.47 pt | 5/7 | 58,341 |
| Q2 2024 | Jul 25, 2024 | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% ✓ | +0.28 pt | 8/8 | 73,516 |
| Q1 2024 | Apr 25, 2024 | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% ✓ | -1.46 pt | 4/6 | 73,334 |
| Q4 2023 | Jan 25, 2024 | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% ✓ | +0.93 pt | 7/9 | 129,907 |
| Q3 2023 | Oct 26, 2023 | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.9% ✓ | +0.64 pt | 10/11 | 107,865 |
| Q2 2023 | Jul 27, 2023 | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.4% ✓ | +0.70 pt | 10/11 | 58,801 |
| Q1 2023 | Apr 27, 2023 | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% ✓ | -1.06 pt | 5/7 | 88,378 |
| Q4 2022 | Jan 26, 2023 | 2.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% ✓ | +0.16 pt | 7/7 | 90,684 |
Highlighted rows missed by more than 1.00 pt. Official values: BEA advance estimate as first published, from ALFRED series A191RL1Q225SBEA (matched by quarter).
Download the data
Release-by-release scorecard (CSV)
One row per settled Kalshi event: the market median 24 hours before, Kalshi’s settlement value, the official first-release value and the miss. Per-contract prices are not included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.
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Methodology
- Markets. Kalshi’s quarterly real GDP series (
KXGDPand the olderGDP-events), each a ladder of “above X%” contracts on the BEA advance estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized real GDP growth, from Kalshi’s public API. - Official data. BEA’s advance estimate as first published, from ALFRED. Later BEA revisions are not used, because Kalshi settles on the advance estimate.
- Market median. For each release we take every “above X” contract’s price 24 hours before trading closed (midpoint of bid and ask from hourly candles when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade; looking back up to 48 hours). Prices are forced to fall as the threshold rises, and the median is the point where the implied chance crosses 50%, interpolated between neighboring thresholds. If the 50% point falls outside the listed thresholds the release is shown but not scored.
- Contracts called right. Each threshold contract counts once: right if the side priced above 50¢ a day before won. Contracts priced exactly 50¢ are skipped.
- Actual value. The value Kalshi settled on (its “expiration value”), which follows the first official release. We check it against the first-release value in ALFRED (St. Louis Fed’s archive of data as first published) and mark any difference.
- Limits. One exchange; thin trading in some older and far-out contracts; the market median is a summary of a full distribution, not a single forecast. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 15, 2026, 7:50 AM ET.
Cite this research
Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, October 15). How Accurate Are Prediction Markets on GDP? Kalshi vs. BEA's First Estimate. https://predictionscout.com/research/gdp-prediction-market-accuracy/
For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/gdp-prediction-market-accuracy/)”
The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Market data: Kalshi. GDP data: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis via ALFRED.
Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with GDP data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.
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