Ebola and Outbreak Prediction Markets vs WHO Outbreak Reports

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Nov 12, 2026, 8:05 AM ET

Key findings

• WHO’s feed shows 16 Ebola reports in 2026; the latest names Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya and Nigeria.
• Highest-priced country for a new confirmed case: Central African Republic, 34%.
• Hantavirus PHEIC in 2026: 1%, with 2,038,907 contracts traded.

Which countries the market prices for an Ebola case

Each row is a separate Yes/No contract: will a confirmed human case of Ebola disease be officially reported in that country before Jan. 1, 2027? Countries that have already reported cases in this outbreak are settled and drop off the list.

Market middle: for “above X” ladders, the point where the implied chance crosses 50% (prices forced to fall as the threshold rises, interpolated between rungs). Prices are the bid/ask midpoint when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade. Events with fewer than 500 contracts traded show “thin trading” instead of a middle, and ladders whose quoted prices contradict each other show “prices out of order”. Pulled Nov 12, 2026, 8:05 AM ET.

The latest WHO Disease Outbreak News

WHO posts a Disease Outbreak News report when an event is unusual or crosses borders. These are the newest titles from WHO’s public feed; they are what traders and the contract rules point to.

• 2026-11-06: Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya and Nigeria
• 2026-11-06: Yellow fever – WHO African Region
• 2026-11-02: Shamonda virus in human – France
• 2026-10-23: Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya and Nigeria
• 2026-10-15: Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus – Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
• 2026-10-10: Pneumonia of undetermined etiology – the Russian Federation
• 2026-10-08: Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus – Democratic Republic of the Congo
• 2026-09-25: Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus – Democratic Republic of the Congo

How these markets settle

• Ebola by country. Yes if a confirmed human case of Ebola disease in that country is officially reported (by the national health ministry or WHO) after the contract was listed and before Jan. 1, 2027. Suspected or probable cases do not count, and a case must be in the named country, not a citizen treated elsewhere.
• Hantavirus PHEIC. Yes only if WHO’s Director-General formally declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern for hantavirus in 2026, after an Emergency Committee under the International Health Regulations. From 2009 through 2024 WHO declared eight PHEICs: H1N1 (2009), polio (2014), Ebola (2014 and 2019), Zika (2016), COVID-19 (2020) and mpox (2022 and 2024). None has ever been for hantavirus, which rarely spreads person to person.

What moves the numbers

For Ebola, the biggest driver is geography and travel: countries that border the outbreak area or share trade and transport links (road corridors, air routes from Kinshasa, Kampala or Nairobi) are priced higher. Prices jump when WHO or a ministry reports a suspected case under investigation, then fall back if tests come back negative. Bundibugyo virus has no licensed vaccine (the Ervebo vaccine covers Zaire ebolavirus only), which keeps containment slower than in recent Zaire-strain outbreaks.

Worked example

Suppose South Sudan trades at 38%. A $1 Yes contract costs 38 cents and pays $1 if a confirmed case is reported there before Jan. 1, 2027. If the ministry announces a suspected case, the contract does not settle; it settles Yes only once a laboratory confirms Ebola and the case is officially reported. If no confirmed case is reported by Dec. 31, the contract settles No and pays nothing.

Download the data

Ebola & Outbreaks markets (one row per event) (CSV)

One row per live event: market middle, contracts listed and traded, and the latest official value. No contract prices or price histories. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Methodology

• Markets. Open Kalshi events for each series, read from the public API. Prices are bid/ask midpoints when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade.
• Official values. WHO Disease Outbreak News public API (titles and dates), pulled on the run date. A country counts as “named” if its name appears in a 2026 Ebola report title.
• No prices in the CSV. One row per event: market middle, contracts listed and traded, and the latest official value.
• Limits. Market middles are snapshots, not forecasts we endorse. Official values shown are the latest published, not necessarily the period each market settles on. Thinly traded events are flagged. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Nov 12, 2026, 8:05 AM ET.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

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