Kalshi’s favorite won 0 of 6 Nobel Prizes in 2026.
At midnight Eastern time on each announcement day, a few hours before the prize was announced, we looked at who Kalshi traders favored and compared that with the laureates named by the Nobel Foundation. In 4 of 6 categories, none of the 2026 laureates was among the names Kalshi listed. Nobel committees keep nominations secret for 50 years, so traders are guessing from public speculation.
Kalshi market data and the Nobel Prize API, pulled Oct 14, 2026, 9:21 AM ET. Updated weekly (new data each October).
By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 14, 2026, 9:21 AM ET
Key findings
- Favorites: 0 of 6 in 2026. The top-priced name lost in all 6 categories.
- 4 of 6 2026 prizes went to people the market did not list. Physics (Francis Halzen); Chemistry (Henri B. Kagan, Kenso Soai); Peace (Navi Pillay); Economic Sciences (Robert E. Hall, Michael Woodford).
- Physiology or Medicine: a laureate was listed but not favored. Karl Deisseroth traded at 12¢ at midnight ET, ranked #6 of 37 names; the favorite was James Fujimoto at 18.5¢.
- Literature: a laureate was listed but not favored. Anne Carson traded at 14.5¢ at midnight ET, ranked #2 of 12 names; the favorite was Can Xue at 16.5¢.
- Earlier years: favorites won 2 of 4. Kalshi listed only some categories before 2026.
- Low confidence throughout. The favorite’s price averaged 19.8¢ in 2026, so the market itself signaled that an upset was more likely than not.
Every scored Nobel market
| Year | Prize | Laureate(s) (Nobel Foundation) | Kalshi favorite (midnight ET) | Laureate’s market | Favorite won? | Names listed | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | Economic Sciences | Robert E. Hall, Michael Woodford | Ariel Pakes (22.5¢) | no market on the laureate settled YES | ✗ | 12 | 98,393 |
| 2026 | Peace | Navi Pillay | Yulia Navalnaya (18.5¢) | no market on the laureate settled YES | ✗ | 50 | 5,684,658 |
| 2026 | Literature | Anne Carson | Can Xue (16.5¢) | Anne Carson (14.5¢, ranked #2) | ✗ | 12 | 61,312 |
| 2026 | Chemistry | Henri B. Kagan, Kenso Soai | Shankar Balasubramanian (23.5¢) | no market on the laureate settled YES | ✗ | 30 | 23,432 |
| 2026 | Physics | Francis Halzen | John Pendry (19.5¢) | no market on the laureate settled YES | ✗ | 24 | 46,771 |
| 2026 | Physiology or Medicine | Karl Deisseroth, Peter Hegemann, Georg Nagel | James Fujimoto (18.5¢) | Karl Deisseroth (12¢, ranked #6) | ✗ | 37 | 8,029 |
| 2025 | Economic Sciences | Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, Peter Howitt | Ariel Pakes (17.5¢) | no market on the laureate settled YES | ✗ | 20 | 8,377 |
| 2025 | Peace | Maria Corina Machado | María Corina Machado (66.5¢) | María Corina Machado (66.5¢, ranked #1) | ✓ | 24 | 12,003,692 |
| 2025 | Literature | László Krasznahorkai | László Krasznahorkai (24¢) | László Krasznahorkai (24¢, ranked #1) | ✓ | 17 | 42,740 |
| 2023 | Literature | Jon Fosse | Can Xue (63¢) | Jon Fosse (7¢, ranked #2) | ✗ | 5 | 4,757 |
Prices are bid/ask midpoints at midnight ET on announcement day; names without a two-sided quote within 10¢ are left unpriced. A shared prize is counted once.
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Nobel markets vs laureates (CSV)
One row per settled market period. Per-contract price histories are not included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.
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Methodology
- Markets. Kalshi’s Nobel series (
KXNOBELPHYSICS,KXNOBELCHEM,KXNOBELMED,KXNOBELLIT,KXNOBELPEACE,KXNOBELECON), one market per named candidate, from Kalshi’s public API. Price at midnight Eastern time on the announcement date given by the Nobel Prize API, using the latest hourly bid/ask midpoint in the prior 48 hours where the spread was 10¢ or less. Names with no such quote are treated as unpriced; isolated trades in empty order books are ignored. Kalshi’s archive for earlier years lacks usable bid/ask history, so pre-2026 prices use the last quote or trade (up to 48 hours before) and are less reliable. - Laureates. The Nobel Prize API (v2.1). A laureate counts as listed if a Kalshi market on that person settled YES or a listed name contains their surname.
- Limits. Six prizes a year is a small sample; Nobel markets list a few dozen names and the rest of the field has no market; prices on lightly traded names can be stale. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 14, 2026, 9:21 AM ET.
Cite this research
Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, October 14). How Well Did Prediction Markets Call the 2026 Nobel Prizes?. https://predictionscout.com/research/nobel-prize-prediction-markets/
For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/nobel-prize-prediction-markets/)”
The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Market data: Kalshi. Laureates: Nobel Prize Outreach (Nobel Prize API).
Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with laureate data from the Nobel Prize API. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.
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