Prediction Market Research Tracker: Academic Papers by Year

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Nov 12, 2026, 8:02 AM ET

Key findings

• 561 papers in 2026 to date, versus 77 in 2025; from 2019 to 2024 the field produced between 28 and 49 a year.
• Kalshi is named in the title or abstract of 100 papers in 2026 and Polymarket in 157.
• 83 of this year’s papers are in journals and 370 on preprint servers; the rest are working-paper series and repository uploads, which are not peer reviewed.
• The most cited recent paper is “Adaptive Auto-Harness: Sustained Self-Improvement for Agentic System Deployment on Open-Ended Task Streams” (34 citations in OpenAlex).
• 707 search matches were removed: 369 not a paper type (dataset, other); 241 term not confirmed in the title or available abstract; 81 duplicate; 16 data, code or protocol deposit.

Papers per year

Counts are papers whose title or abstract names prediction markets or one of the main U.S. venues. 2026 is a partial year, and OpenAlex keeps adding recent work for months, so recent counts rise after publication.

Which fields are writing about it (2026)

Field is OpenAlex’s automatic classification of each paper’s main topic.

Most cited papers, 2025–2026

Citations count fast for recent work and are low for everything published this year; they show early attention, not quality.

Latest in journals and working-paper series

How this tracker works

OpenAlex is an open index of scholarly works built from publishers, preprint servers, repositories and DOIs. We search titles and abstracts for prediction markets, Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, event contracts and the Iowa Electronic Markets, then remove anything that is not a paper (datasets, code, preregistrations), any record where the term does not actually appear in the title or abstract text, and duplicate versions of the same title. Each paper is labeled by where it appeared: a journal, a preprint server such as arXiv or SSRN, a working-paper series or book, or a general repository.

What moves the count

• Market growth. Trading volume and data access on Kalshi and Polymarket gave researchers new data, much of it public through APIs.
• Regulation and law. CFTC and state fights over sports event contracts drew legal and policy scholars.
• Elections. Election years bring forecasting comparisons.
• Self-publishing. Repository uploads and AI-assisted papers have grown quickly, which is why we report journals and preprints separately.
• Indexing lag. Records arrive weeks to months after publication.

Worked example

A record titled “Data and code for: …” uploaded to a data repository matches the search because its description mentions Polymarket. It is dropped as a data deposit. A journal article on clinical-trial integrity that discusses prediction markets in its abstract is kept and counted as a journal paper in its field. An arXiv preprint and its later journal version with the same title count once.

For what the markets themselves show, see the accuracy scorecard.

Download the data

Every paper counted (OpenAlex ID, DOI, venue, field, citations) (CSV)

One row per paper counted, with OpenAlex ID and DOI. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Methodology

• Source. OpenAlex works API (CC0), title and abstract search for: "prediction market" OR "prediction markets" OR kalshi OR polymarket OR predictit OR "event contracts" OR "Iowa Electronic Markets", publication years 2015 onward.
• Kept. Articles, preprints, reviews, book chapters, books, reports and dissertations where a search term appears in the title or abstract text.
• Removed. 369 not a paper type (dataset, other); 241 term not confirmed in the title or available abstract; 81 duplicate; 16 data, code or protocol deposit.
• Venue kind. From OpenAlex’s source type: journal; preprint server (preprint type, arXiv, SSRN); working-paper series or book; repository or other.
• Limits. OpenAlex coverage is broad but not complete, and recent records arrive late. Title/abstract matching misses papers that study prediction markets without naming them, and some papers that only mention them in passing are counted. Matches whose abstract OpenAlex does not supply and whose title lacks a search term are dropped because they cannot be checked; most are unrelated, but a few relevant papers are lost, so counts lean low. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Nov 12, 2026, 8:02 AM ET.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

Related: Accuracy scorecard · Regulation tracker · All research