Housing Starts, New-Home Prices and Data-Center Construction: Kalshi Markets vs. the Census Bureau

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 15, 2026, 10:44 AM ET

Key findings

• Housing starts: typical miss 129K. Median miss 129K units at an annual rate over 5 releases; 29 of 41 “above X” contracts went the way the market leaned a day before.
• Biggest miss: May 2026. Market median 1.434M, first print 1.177M.
• New-home prices: median miss $10,664. Over 3 months the market’s median a day before was above the Census median price 3 times and below it 0 times.
• Settlement check. 8 of 8 scored Kalshi settlements match the Census first print in ALFRED.
• Data centers: +73% in a year. Private data-center construction ran at $85.0 billion a year in August 2026, according to Census.

Data-center construction spending

The Census Bureau puts private data-center construction at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $84.95 billion in August 2026, +73% from a year earlier. Census files data centers under “office” in its private construction detail table.

Kalshi has settled only 2 monthly data-center markets, too few to score like the sections below, so we show what each one settled on next to the Census value today. Census revises the latest months, so a settled value can differ from today’s table.

Housing starts (first print, annual rate)

Across 5 releases from Apr 29, 2026 to Sep 17, 2026, the market’s median a day before was off by 129K in a typical release (median miss) and 126K on average. The number came in above the market median 2 times and below it 3 times. Of 41 individual “above X” contracts, the side priced above 50¢ a day out was right 29 times (71%).

Highlighted rows missed by more than 80K. Official values: Census Bureau New Residential Construction, privately owned housing units started, seasonally adjusted annual rate, first print from ALFRED series HOUST.

Median sales price of new houses sold

Across 3 releases from Jul 24, 2026 to Sep 24, 2026, the market’s median a day before was off by $10,664 in a typical release (median miss) and $11,778 on average. The number came in above the market median 0 times and below it 3 times. Of 34 individual “above X” contracts, the side priced above 50¢ a day out was right 27 times (79%).

Highlighted rows missed by more than $15,000. Official values: Census Bureau New Residential Sales, median sales price of new houses sold (not seasonally adjusted), first print from ALFRED series MSPNHSUS.

Download the data

Release-by-release scorecard (CSV)

One row per settled Kalshi event: the market median 24 hours before, Kalshi’s settlement value, the official first-release value and the miss. Per-contract prices are not included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Methodology

• Markets. Kalshi’s KXHOUSINGSTART (housing starts, seasonally adjusted annual rate), KXUSHOME (median sales price of new houses sold) and KXDATACENTCON (private data-center construction spending) series, from Kalshi’s public API. All three started in 2026, so samples are small.
• Official data. Census Bureau New Residential Construction and New Residential Sales; first-published values come from ALFRED series HOUST and MSPNHSUS (the vintage published nearest the market close). Data-center spending comes from the Census Construction Spending private detail table (privsatime.xlsx), which shows current, revised values only.
• Market median. For each release we take every “above X” contract’s price 24 hours before trading closed (midpoint of bid and ask from hourly candles when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade; looking back up to 48 hours). Prices are forced to fall as the threshold rises, and the median is the point where the implied chance crosses 50%, interpolated between neighboring thresholds. If the 50% point falls outside the listed thresholds the release is shown but not scored.
• Contracts called right. Each threshold contract counts once: right if the side priced above 50¢ a day before won. Contracts priced exactly 50¢ are skipped.
• Actual value. The value Kalshi settled on (its “expiration value”), which follows the first official release. We check it against the first-release value in ALFRED (St. Louis Fed’s archive of data as first published) and mark any difference.
• Limits. One exchange; thin trading in some older and far-out contracts; the market median is a summary of a full distribution, not a single forecast. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 15, 2026, 10:44 AM ET.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with housing data from the Census Bureau. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

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