Fed decisions: how sure was the market of the actual outcome?

When Do Prediction Markets ‘Know’? How Early Kalshi Settled on Every Fed Decision

A day before the statement, the outcome that happened was priced at 90¢ or more in 25 of 28 Fed decisions.

We rebuilt the hourly price of each meeting’s actual outcome over the 60 days before trading closed. In 19 of 28 meetings the eventual outcome stayed above 50¢ for the whole 60-day window. Rate changes were less certain than holds: a day out, the median price was 95.5¢ for meetings that changed rates and 98.5¢ for holds.

Kalshi market data and FRED, pulled Oct 16, 2026, 12:14 PM ET. Updated daily (new rows after each Fed meeting).

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 16, 2026, 12:14 PM ET

25/28at 90¢+ a day before
19/28above 50¢ for all 60 days
95.5¢rate changes, 1 day out
98.5¢holds, 1 day out

Key findings

  • Locked in a day early: 25 of 28. The outcome that happened traded at 90¢ or more 24 hours before the statement in 25 meetings.
  • Changes vs. holds. Across 9 meetings where the Fed moved rates, the actual outcome’s median price a day before was 95.5¢; across 19 holds it was 98.5¢.
  • Late flips. In 1 meeting the eventual outcome was still below 50¢ a week before: Sep 18, 2024 (Cut >25bps, 6¢ a week out, 53.5¢ a day out).
  • Never above 90¢: Sep 18, 2024 (Cut >25bps, peak 84¢); Sep 16, 2026 (Hike 25bps, peak 88.5¢). Peak means the highest hourly price in the 60 days before trading closed.
  • September 2026 hike. The “hike 25bps” contract was at 56.5¢ a week before and 87.5¢ an hour before the statement; its 60-day peak was 88.5¢.
  • Outcomes check out. 28 of 28 settled outcomes match the change in the Fed’s upper target rate in FRED (DFEDTARU).
Fed decisions: how sure was the market of the actual outcome?Fed decisions: how sure was the market of the actual outcome?02448729612023-0523-1124-0524-1125-0525-1026-0426-09Actual outcome, 7 days before (c)1 day before (c)Price of the outcome that happened, centsKalshi; FRED (DFEDTARU); PredictionScout
Price of the outcome that actually happened, a week and a day before each Fed statement.

Every Fed decision since May 2023

“Last below” is how long before trading closed the eventual outcome last traded below that price; after that it stayed above. A short time means the market settled on the outcome late.

DecisionOutcome30 days before7 days before1 day before1 hour beforeLast below 50¢Last below 90¢Contracts traded
Sep 16, 2026Hike 25bps25.5¢56.5¢86.5¢87.5¢10 days1 h103,205,253
Jul 29, 2026Fed maintains rate81.5¢76.5¢79.5¢71.5¢never (in 60 days)1 h68,755,747
Jun 17, 2026Fed maintains rate96.5¢98.5¢99.5¢99.5¢never (in 60 days)52 days33,177,223
Apr 29, 2026Fed maintains rate97.5¢98.5¢99.5¢99.5¢never (in 60 days)49 days19,806,793
Mar 18, 2026Fed maintains rate92¢98.5¢99.5¢99.5¢never (in 60 days)35 days34,397,322
Jan 28, 2026Fed maintains rate85.5¢97.5¢98.5¢99.5¢never (in 60 days)21 days35,976,526
Dec 10, 2025Cut 25bps69.5¢93.5¢96¢97.5¢19 days8 days39,982,396
Oct 29, 2025Cut 25bps80.5¢95.5¢98.5¢98.5¢54 days16 days39,093,798
Sep 17, 2025Cut 25bps71.5¢81.5¢95.5¢91.5¢47 days3 h91,819,656
Jul 30, 2025Fed maintains rate81.5¢94.5¢97.5¢97.5¢never (in 60 days)27 days48,053,671
Jun 18, 2025No change87.5¢96.5¢97.5¢97.5¢never (in 60 days)28 days36,504,721
May 7, 2025No change70.5¢89.5¢97¢96.5¢never (in 60 days)7 days41,343,139
Mar 19, 2025No change96.5¢98.5¢99.5¢99.5¢never (in 60 days)41 days2,849,985
Jan 29, 2025No change89.5¢98.5¢99.5¢98.5¢never (in 60 days)26 days2,033,985
Dec 18, 2024Cut 25bps58¢93¢96.5¢96.5¢35 days7 days3,643,679
Nov 7, 2024Cut 25bps78.5¢88¢95.5¢98.5¢41 days6 days1,104,684
Sep 18, 2024Cut >25bps14¢6¢53.5¢43.5¢1 h1 h2,447,178
Jul 31, 2024Hike 0bps94.5¢95.5¢97.5¢97.5¢never (in 60 days)16 days1,111,574
Jun 12, 2024Hike 0bps94.5¢97.5¢98.5¢99¢never (in 60 days)40 days889,026
May 1, 2024Hike 0bps92¢98.5¢99.5¢99.5¢never (in 60 days)27 days619,198
Mar 20, 2024Hike 0bps96.5¢99.5¢99.5¢99.5¢49 days37 days435,669
Jan 31, 2024Hike 0bps96.5¢99.5¢99.5¢99.5¢never (in 60 days)49 days283,044
Dec 13, 2023Hike 0bps91.5¢99¢99¢99.5¢never (in 60 days)30 days144,860
Nov 1, 2023Hike 0bps74¢98.5¢98.5¢99.5¢never (in 60 days)20 days304,136
Sep 20, 2023Hike 0bps89¢97¢98.5¢98.5¢never (in 60 days)22 days246,231
Jul 26, 2023Hike 25bps75.5¢96.5¢99.5¢98.5¢never (in 60 days)21 days225,688
Jun 14, 2023Hike 0bps82.5¢78.5¢94.5¢96.5¢14 days39 h455,278
May 3, 2023Hike 25bps87¢92.5¢93.5¢never (in 60 days)6 days332,257

Hourly prices are the midpoint of the closing bid and ask when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade; hours with no quote carry the previous price. Kalshi closes trading at 1:55–1:59 PM ET, just before the 2:00 PM statement.

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Meeting-level timing (CSV)

One row per settled market period. Per-contract price histories are not included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

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Methodology

  • Markets. Kalshi’s Fed decision events (KXFEDDECISION and the older FEDDECISION-* series) from May 2023, from Kalshi’s public historical and live APIs. For each meeting we take the contract that settled YES and its hourly candles over the 60 days before trading closed.
  • Timing measures. Prices 30 days, 7 days, 1 day and 1 hour before the close; and the last hour the price was below 50¢ and below 90¢. If the price never fell below a level in the window, the market was there for at least 60 days (or since listing).
  • Verification. Each outcome is checked against the change in the upper limit of the federal funds target range (FRED DFEDTARU) from the day before to the day after the meeting.
  • Limits. One exchange and one kind of event; older markets traded less and have gappier quotes; a high price a day out means the market was confident, not that the decision was knowable. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 16, 2026, 12:14 PM ET.

Cite this research

Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, October 16). When Do Prediction Markets 'Know'? How Early Kalshi Settled on Every Fed Decision. https://predictionscout.com/research/when-do-prediction-markets-know-fed-decisions/

For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/when-do-prediction-markets-know-fed-decisions/)”

The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Market data: Kalshi. Rates: Federal Reserve via FRED.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with target-rate data from FRED. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

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