Fed Chair Word Markets: What Traders Bet the Chair Would Say vs. the Official Transcript

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 15, 2026, 7:53 AM ET

Key findings

• 450 of 545 contracts went the way the market leaned. Brier score 0.118 (0 is perfect; always saying 50% scores 0.250).
• Prices tracked outcomes. Words priced 80¢ or more were said 93% of the time (110 contracts); words priced under 20¢ were said 4% of the time (200 contracts).
• Transcript check: 544 of 545 agree. We counted each word in the Chair’s remarks and answers in the official transcript, using Kalshi’s plural and possessive rule. Kalshi settles mainly from video, so small differences are expected; 1 contract differs and is listed below.
• Biggest surprise. “Egg” (Jun 17, 2026) traded at 4% and settled YES.

Next press conference: the words traders expect

47 word contracts are open for KXFEDMENTION-26OCT. Highest and lowest priced right now:

Calibration: price vs. how often the word was said

Meeting by meeting

Biggest surprises

Where our transcript count differs from the settlement

Typical reasons: Kalshi settles from video (the transcript is lightly edited), compound phrases and word forms, and remarks outside the transcript. We do not say which is right.

Download the data

Contract-by-contract results (CSV)

One row per settled word contract: price at 2:00 PM ET on meeting day, result and our transcript count. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Methodology

• Markets. Kalshi’s KXFEDMENTION series (“What will the Fed Chair say at the post-FOMC press conference?”), from Kalshi’s public API. Each contract pays if the Chair says the word or phrase (or its plural or possessive) during opening remarks and Q&A.
• Price. 2:00 PM ET on meeting day, before the 2:00 PM statement could be traded on and before the 2:30 PM press conference: midpoint of bid and ask from hourly candles when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade, looking back up to 48 hours.
• Transcript check. Official transcripts from federalreserve.gov. We keep only passages spoken by the Chair, then count each listed form of the word (case-insensitive, whole words, plus plural and possessive). Kalshi settles mainly from video, so this is an independent check, not the settlement source.
• Limits. Word markets are a novelty product; many contracts are thin; transcript wording can differ slightly from the video. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 15, 2026, 7:53 AM ET.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with transcripts from the Federal Reserve. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

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