CBP’s current figures differ from the number Kalshi settled on in 8 of 9 months, by at most 21 encounters.
Kalshi lists monthly markets on U.S. Customs and Border Protection’s count of Southwest land border encounters. We rebuilt CBP’s first-published monthly totals from its archived data files and compared them with each Kalshi settlement and with CBP’s latest file (through Aug 2026). Revisions are small relative to monthly totals of roughly 8,000–14,000.
Kalshi market data and CBP data files, pulled Oct 14, 2026, 9:30 AM ET. Updated weekly (CBP publishes monthly).
By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 14, 2026, 9:30 AM ET
Key findings
- 8 of 9 settled months have since been revised. The largest change: Apr 2026, settled at 12,836, now 12,857 (+21). Kalshi settles on the figure available at settlement and does not reopen markets.
- 6 of 9 settlements equal CBP’s first-published total exactly in the archived files we could retrieve; the rest differ by +2, +10, -1. CBP’s archive does not cover every month’s first release, so some months are compared with a later file.
- Some markets settled long after the month ended. Mar 2025 settled on Jan 15, 2026. The table shows when each market settled.
- Latest CBP figure: 12,242 encounters in Aug 2026. Kalshi has no open border-encounter market as of this update.
Every settled Kalshi border market
| Month | Outcome that settled YES | Kalshi recorded value | CBP first published (archived file) | CBP today | Change since settlement | Settled | Contracts traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | 13,500 or above | 13,529 | 13,530 | 13,542 | +13 | Jun 18, 2026 | 4,734 |
| Apr 2026 | 12,000 to 13,000 | 12,836 | 12,836 | 12,857 | +21 | May 15, 2026 | 14,920 |
| Mar 2026 | 11,000 to 12,000 | 11,732 | 11,732 | 11,735 | +3 | Apr 10, 2026 | 33,948 |
| Feb 2026 | 9,000 to 9,999 | 9,621 | 9,621 | 9,613 | -8 | Mar 20, 2026 | 94,363 |
| Jan 2026 | 9,000 to 10,999 | 9,726 | 9,726 | 9,729 | +3 | Feb 23, 2026 | 27,494 |
| Oct 2025 | 10,500 to 12,000 | 11,710 | 11,710 | 11,704 | -6 | Dec 4, 2025 | 2,769 |
| Jul 2025 | 7,500 to 8,999 | 7,832 | 7,822 | 7,822 | -10 | Aug 13, 2025 | 3,240 |
| May 2025 | 10,000 to 19,999 | 12,452 | 12,450 | 12,450 | -2 | Jun 17, 2025 | 1,213 |
| Mar 2025 | 14,999 or below | 11,011 | 11,011 | 11,011 | +0 | Jan 15, 2026 | 120 |
“First published” is the month’s total in the earliest CBP monthly data file still linked on CBP’s site. CBP reports encounters by fiscal year (October–September); months here are calendar months. Totals include U.S. Border Patrol apprehensions and Office of Field Operations encounters at the Southwest land border.
What the market measures
“Encounters” is CBP’s umbrella term: Border Patrol apprehensions between ports of entry, plus people deemed inadmissible by CBP officers at ports of entry, and, before May 2023, Title 42 expulsions. It counts events, not unique people. This page reports the figures as CBP publishes them and does not assess border policy.
Download the data
Kalshi markets vs CBP (CSV)CBP monthly totals (current) (CSV)
One row per settled market period. Per-contract price histories are not included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.
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Methodology
- Markets. Kalshi’s
KXSWENCOUNTERSseries (monthly Southwest land border encounters), from Kalshi’s public API: the outcome that settled YES and Kalshi’s recorded value. - Official data. CBP’s Southwest Land Border Encounters monthly data files (CSV), summed over all components, demographics, citizenships and encounter types for each month. Each archived file is treated as a vintage to recover first-published totals.
- Limits. Only nine settled markets, with mixed contract designs; the market’s pre-settlement forecasts are not scored here because the sample is too small. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 14, 2026, 9:30 AM ET.
Cite this research
Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, October 14). Border Encounter Prediction Markets vs. CBP Data: How Kalshi's Markets Settled. https://predictionscout.com/research/border-encounter-prediction-markets-vs-cbp/
For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/border-encounter-prediction-markets-vs-cbp/)”
The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Market data: Kalshi. Encounter data: U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with encounter data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.
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