Name: Kalshi FAO Food Price Index ladders vs FAO data
Creator: PredictionScout
Published: 2026-10-20
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

FAO’s Food Price Index stood at 136 in Sep 2026 (2014–2016 = 100), +5.8% from a year earlier.

We checked 5 settled months of Kalshi’s FAO Food Price Index ladder against FAO’s own data file. A day before each release, the market’s median missed the first-reported figure by a median 1.2 points.

Kalshi market data and FAO, pulled Oct 23, 2026, 8:37 AM ET. Updated daily.

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 23, 2026, 8:37 AM ET

136FFPI, Sep 2026

39/46favored side right

1.2median miss, points

4/5months FAO later revised

Key findings

Market accuracy. Over 5 months, contracts on the favored side a day before were right 39 of 46; the median miss was 1.2 index points and the largest 1.7 (Aug 2026).
FAO revises. For 4 of 5 settled months, FAO’s figure today differs from the one Kalshi settled on (median gap 0.4 points). Kalshi’s terms settle on the first-reported value and ignore later revisions; we can; FAO updates recent months as new price quotes arrive.rsquo;t see FAO; FAO updates recent months as new price quotes arrive.rsquo;s first-published file to say why each month moved.
Behind the headline. Year-on-year in Sep 2026: oils +18.3%, cereals +17.2%, sugar +14.7%, meat +0.0%, dairy -19.1%.
Next release (Oct 2026). Kalshi’s ladder implies a median of 134.6; trading closes Nov 6, 2026.

FAO Food Price Index, nominal, 2014–2016 = 100. Source: FAO, CC BY 4.0.

Every settled month

The median is read from Kalshi’s “above X” ladder 24 hours before trading closed. “FAO today” is the value in FAO’s current data file.

Month	Kalshi median, 24h before	Kalshi settled	FAO today	Favored side right
May 2026	132.1	130.8	131	8/10
Jun 2026	129.8	130.3	130.1	6/7
Jul 2026	129.9	131.1	131.7	7/9
Aug 2026	131.6	133.3	134	8/10
Sep 2026	135.6	136	136	10/10

Next release: live ladder

Above	Chance now	Volume
131	90%	0
132	78%	13
133	66%	919
134	59%	400
135	45%	313
136	29%	255
137	16%	73
138	8%	0
139	4%	240
140	4%	356

FAO’s release dates: 2026: 9 January, 6 February, 6 March, 3 April, 8 May, 5 June, 3 July, 7 August, 4 September, 2 October, 6 November, 4 December.

FAO data and terms

FAO’s figures on this page are used under the CC BY 4.0 licence and FAO’s Statistical Database Terms of Use. FAO has not reviewed or endorsed this analysis or any market. Citation: FAO. 2026. FAO Food Price Index. Accessed on 23 October 2026. https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/ Licence: CC-BY-4.0.

Download the data

Settled Kalshi FAO ladders vs FAO (CSV)FAO Food Price Index and sub-indices since 2020 (CSV)

Settled months with market medians and both values, plus FAO’s index and sub-indices since 2020. FAO-derived columns are FAO data under CC BY 4.0 and FAO’s database terms; cite as: FAO. 2026. FAO Food Price Index. Accessed on 23 October 2026. https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/ Licence: CC-BY-4.0. No price histories are included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Embed this chart

<a href="https://predictionscout.com/research/fao-food-price-index-prediction-markets/"><img src="https://predictionscout.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/predictionscout-fao-food-price-index-prediction-markets-chart-20261023.png" alt="FAO Food Price Index since 2020, chart by PredictionScout" style="max-width:100%;height:auto"></a><br><small>Chart: <a href="https://predictionscout.com/research/fao-food-price-index-prediction-markets/">PredictionScout</a> analysis of public data</small>

Methodology

FAO data. The monthly nominal index file (food_price_indices_data.csv) linked from FAO’s Food Price Index page, read on every update.
Market. Kalshi’s KXFAOFPI ladder, which settles on the headline index as first reported, ignoring later revisions.
Median. Each settled “above X” contract priced from hourly candles 24 hours before trading closed (bid/ask midpoint, or last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢), forced to fall as X rises, and read at 50%.
Limits. Kalshi’s ladder covers only recent months. FAO’s file shows today’s values, not each first release, so a revision gap is inferred from Kalshi’s settled value. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 23, 2026, 8:37 AM ET.

Cite this research

Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, October 23). FAO Food Price Index Prediction Markets vs FAO Data. https://predictionscout.com/research/fao-food-price-index-prediction-markets/

For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/fao-food-price-index-prediction-markets/)”

PredictionScout. (2026, October 23). FAO Food Price Index Prediction Markets vs FAO Data. https://predictionscout.com/research/fao-food-price-index-prediction-markets/

The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Market data: Kalshi. Food prices: FAO. 2026. FAO Food Price Index. Accessed on 23 October 2026. https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/ Licence: CC-BY-4.0.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with index data from FAO (CC BY 4.0). All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.