Hurricane Season Prediction Markets vs. the National Hurricane Center

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 23, 2026, 8:35 AM ET

Key findings

• 29 of 31 contracts right 30 days before close (contracts that settled early because the count had already passed the line are left out).
• Early in the season: in each contract’s first trading week, the market’s lean was right on 40 of 49.
• 2026 so far (NHC best track): 10 Atlantic named storms (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine), 1 hurricane, 1 major; 21 Eastern Pacific named storms since May 15. The Atlantic season runs to Nov 30.
• 10-year average (HURDAT2, 2016–2025): 18.1 named storms, 8.4 hurricanes, 4.1 major hurricanes per Atlantic season.
• Settlements check out. 81 of 81 settled contracts agree with NHC’s counts.
• Storm by storm. 420 of 423 settled single-storm intensity contracts agree with NHC’s best-track peak wind; priced when each storm was named, the favored side was right 149 of 180.

How the hurricane-season markets work

Kalshi lists “more than N” contracts on the season’s total of Atlantic hurricanes (Category 1 or stronger), major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger) and storms with winds of at least 39 mph, plus Eastern Pacific named storms. A contract pays $1 if the count ends up above its line. For the Atlantic markets, the counting window in the current rules runs from January 1 to December 1, so a storm that forms before the June 1 start of the official season, or in the last days of November, still counts.

Settlement. The source is NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. A Yes can happen at any time: once the count passes the line, the contract expires at the next 10:00 AM ET and pays out, which is why some contracts on this page “settled early”. A No can only be confirmed after the window closes, so those contracts run to the day after December 1. Two edge cases: the storm-count rule is written in terms of wind speed (maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or more as recorded by NHC), not storm names; and the count is whatever NHC has documented at 10:00 AM ET on the expiration date. Under the contract terms, later revisions, such as NHC’s post-season reanalysis upgrading or downgrading a storm, do not change a contract that has already expired.

What drives the count. Atlantic activity depends mostly on ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and on wind shear, which tends to be stronger during El Niño years and weaker during La Niña. Late in the season the question narrows to how many storms still form before December; in the last 10 seasons, a median of 2 Atlantic named storms formed between October 23 and December 1 (range 0 to 4).

Reading the table: a worked example. In the open-markets table, “Atlantic named storms: more than 10” trades at 45% with 10 counted so far, so the season needs 1 more to settle Yes. In the last 10 seasons, at least 1 Atlantic named storm formed after October 23 in 8 of 10 years. In the settled table, “Price, 30 days before close” is the score we headline, and “NHC count” is our own count from NHC’s best-track files, used to check each settlement.

Every settled contract

Open 2026 markets vs. the count so far

Kalshi prices as of Oct 23, 2026, 8:34 AM ET.

Atlantic seasons, last 10 years

Storm by storm: intensity markets vs NHC best track

Kalshi also lists a ladder for individual named storms: will it reach Category 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5? We matched 423 settled contracts on 89 storm names (76 that actually formed) to the peak sustained wind in NHC’s best track. 420 of 423 settlements agree with the best-track peak. Priced when NHC first named each storm, the side above 50¢ was right 149 of 180 times. The biggest upset: Beryl (2024) reaching Category 5 was priced at 4.5¢ when it was named. The biggest miss the other way: Iselle (2026) reaching Category 1 at 90.5¢, and it fell short. Names Kalshi listed for storms that never formed settle No.

Where the settlement and best track disagree: Imelda 2025 Category 2 (best-track peak 80 kt, threshold 83 kt, settled Yes); Dexter 2025 Category 1 (best-track peak 70 kt, threshold 64 kt, settled No); Ian 2022 Category 5 (best-track peak 140 kt, threshold 137 kt, settled No). Kalshi’s terms name The Weather Company first and NHC second, and settle on the first non-preliminary figure, while NHC can revise its best track after the season.

One row per storm that formed. “Prices when named” lists each category contract’s price at the first best-track fix with tropical-storm-force winds. Peak wind is the 1-minute sustained maximum in knots (Category 1 = 64 kt, 2 = 83, 3 = 96, 4 = 113, 5 = 137).

Download the data

Settled season-count contracts (CSV)Atlantic season counts (CSV)Single-storm intensity contracts (CSV)

One row per settled market period. Per-contract price histories are not included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Methodology

• Markets. Kalshi’s season-count series KXHURCTOT (hurricanes), KXHURCTOTMAJ (Category 3+), KXTROPSTORM (named storms) and KXNAMEDSTORM (named storms by basin), from Kalshi’s public API. Each contract is priced in its first trading week and 30 days before it closed. Contracts that settled Yes before the season ended (because the count passed the line) are excluded from the 30-day score.
• Official counts. NOAA National Hurricane Center HURDAT2 best-track files (hurdat2-1851-2025-092326.txt, hurdat2-nepac-1949-2025-092926.txt) for completed seasons, and NHC’s working ATCF best-track files for the current season. A named storm is a tropical or subtropical storm with winds of at least 34 knots; a hurricane reaches 64 knots; a major hurricane reaches 96 knots (Category 3).
• Single-storm markets. Kalshi’s KXHURCAT series (and its earlier HURCAT events) asks whether a named storm reaches each Saffir-Simpson category. We match each storm by name and season to NHC’s best track, Atlantic and Eastern Pacific, take its peak 1-minute sustained wind, and price each contract at the hourly candle at or before the first fix with winds of 34 kt or more. Kalshi settles on The Weather Company first and NHC second.
• Limits. Few seasons have settled Kalshi markets; the current-season counts use NHC’s working best track, which NHC can revise in its post-season reports. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 23, 2026, 8:35 AM ET.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with storm data from the National Hurricane Center. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

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