As of October 24, 2026, Republican (Ashley Moody) is the favorite in the Florida Senate Race 2026 market, leading at an implied probability of about 90% (90¢ per contract on Kalshi). Live prices below are pulled directly from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Florida Senate Odds
The same outcome often trades at different prices on different exchanges.
| Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican (Ashley Moody) | 90% | 92% | 2.0 pts |
| Democratic (Angie Nixon) | 10% | 9.0% | 1.0 pts |
Florida Senate Odds on Kalshi
| Outcome | Implied probability | Price | Bid / Ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican (Ashley Moody) | 90% | 90¢ | 89¢ / 91¢ |
| Democratic (Angie Nixon) | 10% | 10¢ | 10¢ / 11¢ |
Source: Kalshi — Florida Senate winner?. Probability = midpoint of the current bid/ask.
Florida Senate Odds on Polymarket
| Outcome | Implied probability | Price | Bid / Ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Moody (R) | 92% | 92¢ | 91¢ / 92¢ |
| Angie Nixon (D) | 9.0% | 9¢ | 8¢ / 10¢ |
Source: Polymarket — Florida Senate Election Winner.
About the Florida Senate Race
These contracts settle on which party wins the seat. The exchanges label each party contract with a candidate name, shown in parentheses above; those labels can lag the actual field. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
Market Odds vs Polls
Polls measure who people say they support; prediction market odds measure where traders put real money. Polling averages update every few days or weeks, while market prices react to news within minutes — including primary results, debate moments, and fundraising reports. Markets also price primary races and nominee fields before pollsters survey them. Neither is infallible: polls carry sampling error, and thin markets can be moved by a few large trades. Historically, market prices in aggregate have been well-calibrated — a 70% favorite wins about 70% of the time.
About This Market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.…
How to Trade This Market
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, all 50 states for political markets) and Polymarket (lowest fees, iOS in 49 states) both offer event markets; see our head-to-head comparison or run your trade through the fee calculator before placing it. New to event contracts? Start with how prediction markets work.
More Senate Races Odds
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Common Questions
Who is favored to win the Florida Senate Race 2026 market?
As of October 24, 2026, Republican (Ashley Moody) is the favorite: prediction markets give it an implied probability of about 90% (a 90¢ contract on Kalshi). Prices move constantly as traders buy and sell; the tables on this page show the latest synced prices.
Where can I trade the Florida Senate market?
This market trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in all 50 states for political markets; Polymarket US is open to iOS users in 49 states. See our platform reviews for fees and details.
How do prediction market odds work?
Contracts pay $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so the price is the market’s implied probability: a 62¢ contract means traders collectively price a 62% chance. Odds come from real money changing hands, not from polls or pundits.
Who is running in the Florida Senate Race 2026?
These markets settle on which party wins the seat; the exchanges label each party contract with a candidate name (shown on this page). Check the state election office for the certified ballot.
When will the Florida Senate market settle?
Election Day is November 3, 2026. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 once the outcome is officially determined.
Prices synced October 24, 2026 from public Kalshi and Polymarket market data. Odds move constantly; check the exchange for execution prices. This page is informational — not investment advice. PredictionScout may earn commissions from platform links; see our affiliate disclosure. More markets: all live odds pages.