Candidates in the 35 US Senate races on the 2026 ballot have reported $881,403,866 in receipts to the Federal Election Commission. Prediction markets think most of those races are already over.
$493,006,822 — 56% of every dollar raised — sits in the 25 races where the market gives one side a 90% or better chance. The 6 races traders treat as genuinely competitive have drawn $314,696,849 between them.
Every 2026 Senate Race: Money Raised vs Market Odds
Sorted by total raised. Receipts are cumulative through June 30, 2026; market prices are from August 27, 2026.
| State | Total raised | Filed candidates | Market favors | Implied probability | Status | Top fundraiser (all filers, to Jun 30) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | $108,146,300 | 16 | Republican | 51% | Competitive | James Talarico ($68.6M) |
| Georgia | $97,396,219 | 7 | Democratic | 93% | Decided | T. Jonathan Ossoff ($77.3M) |
| Ohio | $58,085,788 | 8 | Democratic | 55% | Competitive | Sherrod Brown ($38.6M) |
| North Carolina | $51,891,377 | 11 | Democratic | 92% | Decided | Roy Cooper ($35.0M) |
| Maine | $50,371,791 | 14 | Democratic | 68% | Competitive | Graham Platner ($21.1M) — withdrew in July 2026 |
| Michigan | $49,358,221 | 11 | Democratic | 63% | Competitive | Abdul El-Sayed ($14.5M) |
| Florida | $46,543,448 | 13 | Republican | 93% | Decided | Alexander Vindman ($16.3M) — lost the August 18 primary to Angie Nixon |
| Illinois | $45,979,694 | 22 | Democratic | 95% | Decided | S Krishnamoorthi ($31.6M) |
| Louisiana | $36,829,302 | 12 | Republican | 94% | Decided | John C. Jr. Fleming ($12.3M) |
| Alaska | $27,700,934 | 3 | Democratic | 63% | Competitive | Mary Peltola ($18.5M) |
| South Carolina | $27,568,745 | 19 | Republican | 88% | Leaning | Annie Andrews ($10.8M) |
| Minnesota | $27,481,508 | 12 | Democratic | 90% | Decided | Angie Craig ($12.7M) |
| Kentucky | $26,229,955 | 13 | Republican | 95% | Decided | Garland Andy Barr ($10.0M) |
| Iowa | $21,033,814 | 8 | Republican | 59% | Competitive | Ashley Hinson Arenholz ($10.2M) |
| New Hampshire | $19,509,682 | 8 | Democratic | 85% | Leaning | Chris Pappas ($13.4M) |
| New Jersey | $19,150,388 | 5 | Democratic | 96% | Decided | Cory A. Booker ($18.9M) |
| Virginia | $18,770,472 | 9 | Democratic | 97% | Decided | Mark Robert Warner ($17.9M) |
| Nebraska | $17,084,405 | 6 | Republican | 70% | Leaning | Pete Ricketts ($11.2M) |
| Massachusetts | $13,719,239 | 8 | Democratic | 97% | Decided | Seth Moulton ($6.2M) |
| Oklahoma | $13,673,884 | 10 | Republican | 98% | Decided | Kevin Hern ($10.0M) |
| Colorado | $12,803,855 | 13 | Democratic | 96% | Decided | John W. Hickenlooper ($8.1M) |
| Alabama | $11,525,408 | 12 | Republican | 97% | Decided | Felix Barry Moore ($3.8M) |
| Montana | $10,603,703 | 10 | Republican | 90% | Decided | Steve Daines ($4.7M) |
| Kansas | $9,537,362 | 10 | Republican | 82% | Leaning | Adam Hamilton ($4.2M) |
| Arkansas | $8,685,603 | 8 | Republican | 90% | Decided | Thomas Cotton ($6.2M) |
| Tennessee | $7,189,770 | 5 | Republican | 98% | Decided | Bill Hagerty ($7.2M) |
| West Virginia | $7,078,401 | 9 | Republican | 98% | Decided | Shelley Moore Capito ($4.6M) |
| Mississippi | $6,883,182 | 5 | Republican | 94% | Decided | Cindy Hyde-Smith ($3.8M) |
| New Mexico | $5,692,897 | 3 | Democratic | 98% | Decided | Ben Ray Lujan ($5.6M) |
| Oregon | $4,672,311 | 3 | Democratic | 98% | Decided | Jeffrey Alan Merkley ($4.5M) |
| Idaho | $4,300,034 | 6 | Republican | 96% | Decided | James E Mr. Risch ($3.4M) |
| Wyoming | $4,249,732 | 5 | Republican | 99% | Decided | Harriet Hageman ($2.4M) |
| South Dakota | $4,197,789 | 4 | Republican | 93% | Decided | Mike Rounds ($3.2M) |
| Delaware | $4,137,940 | 4 | Democratic | 95% | Decided | Christopher A. Coons ($3.9M) |
| Rhode Island | $3,320,708 | 4 | Democratic | 97% | Decided | John F. Reed ($3.1M) |
The Races Traders Say Are Still Live
- Texas — $108,146,300 raised across 16 filed candidates, and the market still only gives the Republican side 51%. Top fundraiser: James Talarico at $68.6M. Live odds.
- Ohio — $58,085,788 raised across 8 filed candidates, and the market still only gives the Democratic side 55%. Top fundraiser: Sherrod Brown at $38.6M. Live odds.
- Maine — $50,371,791 raised across 14 filed candidates, and the market still only gives the Democratic side 68%. Top fundraiser: Graham Platner at $21.1M (withdrew in July 2026). Live odds.
- Michigan — $49,358,221 raised across 11 filed candidates, and the market still only gives the Democratic side 63%. Top fundraiser: Abdul El-Sayed at $14.5M. Live odds.
- Alaska — $27,700,934 raised across 3 filed candidates, and the market still only gives the Democratic side 63%. Top fundraiser: Mary Peltola at $18.5M. Live odds.
- Iowa — $21,033,814 raised across 8 filed candidates, and the market still only gives the Republican side 59%. Top fundraiser: Ashley Hinson Arenholz at $10.2M. Live odds.
Where the Money Outruns the Market
The five most expensive races that traders consider settled:
- Georgia — $97,396,219 raised in a race the market prices at 93%.
- North Carolina — $51,891,377 raised in a race the market prices at 92%.
- Florida — $46,543,448 raised in a race the market prices at 93%.
- Illinois — $45,979,694 raised in a race the market prices at 95%.
- Louisiana — $36,829,302 raised in a race the market prices at 94%.
Money raised is not the same as money wasted. Incumbents raise to deter challengers, party committees bank funds for later cycles, and a safe seat can look safe because of early fundraising. But the gap is worth watching: prices move on news, and filing deadlines are news.
How to Read This
Where the money comes from. Total receipts reported to the FEC by every candidate who has filed for that state’s Senate seat, through June 30, 2026. These are 2026-cycle receipts only, taken from the FEC’s bulk “all candidates” summary — the same basis newsrooms and OpenSecrets use. That matters: the FEC’s API returns a Senate incumbent’s entire six-year committee history, which would have credited Jon Ossoff with $98.0M rather than the $77.3M he has raised this cycle, and would have inflated long-held safe seats specifically. Receipts, not spending, and not adjusted for self-funding or transfers. The next quarterly filing deadline is September 30, 2026.
Every filer counts here, which runs hot. State totals sum all candidates on the 2026 ballot who reported receipts — long shots and dropouts included — so they sit above the “major candidates only” tables that outlets like OpenSecrets publish. Ohio is the clearest example: Sherrod Brown ($38.6M) and Jon Husted ($14.4M) account for $53.0M of the state’s $58.1M, and most of the remainder is Fred Ode, a self-funding Democrat who raised $5.0M and withdrew before the May primary. Every dollar is real and filed; it is simply a wider net than a nominee-only table. Treat the total as this site’s all-filer scrape, not a canonical FEC headline — the FEC’s own statistical summary reported $654M for Senate candidates through March 31, before the second-quarter surge.
We do exclude senators whose committees were active this cycle but who are not on the 2026 ballot. Counting those would have added about $275 million nationally, including John Thune in South Dakota, Bernie Sanders in Vermont, and Mark Kelly in Arizona. Figures are per candidate committee, deduplicated where one person holds two committee IDs.
A filing period is not today, and the “top fundraiser” column is not a nominee list. It reports whoever had raised the most among all filed candidates in that state as of the cutoff — which in several states includes people who have since lost a primary, withdrawn, or died. Those are flagged inline where we know of them: Graham Platner led Maine’s fundraising and withdrew in July; Alexander Vindman led Florida’s and lost the August 18 primary to Angie Nixon. South Carolina now shows Annie Andrews because Lindsey Graham, who led that state’s fundraising for much of the cycle, died on July 11, 2026 and is off the ballot. Primaries ran through the summer in many of these states, so read the column as a money fact about the filing period, not as who is on the November ballot.
Why “decided” is a threshold, not a fact. This page draws the line at 90%. Move it and the headline moves with it — at a 95% cutoff roughly a quarter of the money sits in decided races, at 80% roughly two thirds. The ranking is more durable than any single percentage drawn from it.
Where the odds come from. Kalshi contract prices, which express a percentage chance. An important caveat: these state contracts settle on whether a representative of a given party is sworn in — not on any individual winning. Both Kalshi and Polymarket display them under a candidate’s name, and some of those labels are out of date. That is why this table reports the favored party rather than a person, and names the top fundraiser separately as a fundraising fact.
What it does not tell you. Markets can be wrong, and thinly traded state races move on small volume. Treat a 90% as a strong consensus, not a result.
Compiled August 27, 2026 by Arthur Angelo from Federal Election Commission filings and Kalshi market data. Free to cite with attribution and a link. See our live odds pages for each race, or the methodology behind our platform scores.