Candidates in the 35 US Senate races on the 2026 ballot have reported $1,278,893,968 in receipts to the Federal Election Commission this cycle. Prediction markets think most of those races are already settled.
$583,810,808, or 46% of the money raised, is in the 24 races where the markets give one side a 90% or better chance. The 5 races traders treat as competitive have drawn $422,740,628 between them.
Every 2026 Senate Race: Money Raised vs Market Odds
Sorted by total raised. Money is what each campaign has reported for 2025–26, through October 14, 2026 for most candidates. Market prices are from Oct 24, 2026, 7:38 AM ET. The Kalshi and Polymarket columns show each exchange’s price for the party the markets favor; the status uses the average of the two.
| State | Total raised | Candidates reporting money | Market favors | Kalshi | Polymarket | Status | Top fundraiser (all filers, latest reports) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | $198,239,858 | 15 | Democratic | 64% | 64% | Competitive | James Talarico ($146.3M) |
| Georgia | $134,506,286 | 5 | Democratic | 96% | 96% | Decided | T. Jonathan Ossoff ($115.9M) |
| Michigan | $101,990,509 | 11 | Democratic | 68% | 70% | Leaning | Abdul El-Sayed ($53.8M) |
| Ohio | $93,552,645 | 9 | Democratic | 68% | 69% | Competitive | Sherrod Brown ($68.4M) |
| North Carolina | $64,123,524 | 9 | Democratic | 96% | 97% | Decided | Roy Cooper ($49.6M) |
| Maine | $64,056,091 | 17 | Democratic | 64% | 65% | Competitive | Troy Dale Jackson ($26.9M) |
| Florida | $63,248,693 | 11 | Republican | 90% | 92% | Decided | Alexander Vindman ($20.5M) — not among the candidates the markets now price |
| Illinois | $49,728,936 | 22 | Democratic | 99% | 98% | Decided | S. Krishnamoorthi ($31.6M) — not among the candidates the markets now price |
| Alaska | $48,426,339 | 3 | Democratic | 76% | 75% | Leaning | Mary Peltola ($36.9M) |
| South Carolina | $46,118,842 | 20 | Republican | 80% | 80% | Leaning | Annie Andrews ($24.2M) |
| Iowa | $41,004,581 | 7 | Republican | 58% | 57% | Competitive | Joshua Turek ($24.3M) |
| Minnesota | $40,417,321 | 11 | Democratic | 86% | 87% | Leaning | Angie Craig ($13.4M) — not among the candidates the markets now price |
| Louisiana | $33,617,252 | 10 | Republican | 94% | 92% | Decided | John C. Fleming Jr. ($12.3M) — not among the candidates the markets now price |
| New Hampshire | $32,348,279 | 6 | Democratic | 90% | 92% | Decided | Chris Pappas ($23.7M) |
| Kentucky | $29,871,118 | 12 | Republican | 97% | 98% | Decided | Garland Andy Barr ($12.5M) |
| Kansas | $25,887,453 | 10 | Republican | 60% | 61% | Competitive | Adam Hamilton ($19.2M) |
| Nebraska | $25,654,165 | 6 | Republican | 76% | 74% | Leaning | Pete Ricketts ($14.5M) |
| Virginia | $21,845,463 | 9 | Democratic | 98% | 98% | Decided | Mark Robert Warner ($20.2M) |
| New Jersey | $21,596,968 | 5 | Democratic | 97% | 98% | Decided | Cory A. Booker ($21.3M) |
| Colorado | $18,880,723 | 13 | Democratic | 99% | 99% | Decided | John W. Hickenlooper ($9.5M) |
| Massachusetts | $15,036,506 | 8 | Democratic | 98% | 98% | Decided | Seth Moulton ($6.7M) — not among the candidates the markets now price |
| Oklahoma | $14,710,737 | 11 | Republican | 97% | 97% | Decided | Kevin Hern ($10.9M) |
| Arkansas | $11,427,112 | 8 | Republican | 95% | 95% | Decided | Thomas Cotton ($7.1M) |
| Alabama | $10,417,495 | 10 | Republican | 98% | 99% | Decided | Felix Barry Moore ($4.6M) |
| Mississippi | $9,735,356 | 6 | Republican | 88% | 88% | Leaning | Cindy Hyde-Smith ($4.6M) |
| Montana | $8,738,811 | 9 | Republican | 91% | 92% | Decided | Seth Bodnar ($4.9M) |
| Tennessee | $8,513,263 | 7 | Republican | 96% | 96% | Decided | Bill Hagerty ($8.4M) |
| West Virginia | $6,857,076 | 8 | Republican | 98% | 98% | Decided | Shelley Moore Capito ($5.4M) |
| New Mexico | $6,559,752 | 2 | Democratic | 96% | 97% | Decided | Ben Ray Lujan ($6.5M) |
| Idaho | $6,107,333 | 6 | Republican | 96% | 97% | Decided | James E. Risch ($3.9M) |
| South Dakota | $5,925,101 | 4 | Republican | 95% | 95% | Decided | Mike Rounds ($3.8M) |
| Oregon | $5,698,686 | 3 | Democratic | 99% | 99% | Decided | Jeffrey Alan Merkley ($5.4M) |
| Delaware | $5,297,300 | 5 | Democratic | 98% | 98% | Decided | Christopher A. Coons ($5.0M) |
| Wyoming | $4,667,823 | 5 | Republican | 99% | 98% | Decided | Harriet Hageman ($2.8M) |
| Rhode Island | $4,086,571 | 4 | Democratic | 99% | 98% | Decided | John F. Reed ($3.7M) |
The Races Traders Say Are Still Live
- Iowa — $41,004,581 raised across 7 candidates, and the markets give the Republican side only 58% on average (Kalshi 58%, Polymarket 57%). Top fundraiser: Joshua Turek at $24.3M. Live odds.
- Kansas — $25,887,453 raised across 10 candidates, and the markets give the Republican side only 61% on average (Kalshi 60%, Polymarket 61%). Top fundraiser: Adam Hamilton at $19.2M. Live odds.
- Texas — $198,239,858 raised across 15 candidates, and the markets give the Democratic side only 64% on average (Kalshi 64%, Polymarket 64%). Top fundraiser: James Talarico at $146.3M. Live odds.
- Maine — $64,056,091 raised across 17 candidates, and the markets give the Democratic side only 64% on average (Kalshi 64%, Polymarket 65%). Top fundraiser: Troy Dale Jackson at $26.9M. Live odds.
- Ohio — $93,552,645 raised across 9 candidates, and the markets give the Democratic side only 69% on average (Kalshi 68%, Polymarket 69%). Top fundraiser: Sherrod Brown at $68.4M. Live odds.
Another 6 races lean one way without being settled (favorite between 70% and 90%): Michigan (Democratic 70%), Nebraska (Republican 75%), Alaska (Democratic 75%), South Carolina (Republican 80%), Minnesota (Democratic 86%), Mississippi (Republican 88%).
Where the Money Outruns the Market
The five most expensive races that traders consider settled:
- Georgia — $134,506,286 raised in a race the markets price at 96% for the Democratic side.
- North Carolina — $64,123,524 raised in a race the markets price at 97% for the Democratic side.
- Florida — $63,248,693 raised in a race the markets price at 91% for the Republican side.
- Illinois — $49,728,936 raised in a race the markets price at 98% for the Democratic side.
- Louisiana — $33,617,252 raised in a race the markets price at 93% for the Republican side.
Money raised is not the same as money wasted. Incumbents raise to scare off challengers, campaigns bank money for later, and a safe seat can look safe because of early fundraising. But the gap is worth watching: prices move on news, and filing deadlines are news.
How to Read This
Where the money comes from. Total receipts each candidate reported to the FEC for the 2025–26 two-year period, pulled from the OpenFEC API (the “elections” endpoint, two-year totals only). We use the two-year figure on purpose: a senator’s full six-year total would count money raised years before this race, which inflates long-held seats. These are receipts, not spending, and they are not adjusted for self-funding or transfers. Most campaigns’ latest report covers through October 14, 2026 (a few filed later reports, through October 31). Third-quarter reports, covering July through September, are due October 15, 2026, and this page picks them up automatically.
Every filer counts here. State totals add up every candidate for the seat who reported receipts, including long shots, people who dropped out and primary losers. That makes them higher than “major candidates only” tables some outlets publish. Senators who are not on the 2026 ballot are not included, even if their committees raised money this cycle. Figures are per FEC candidate ID. Earlier versions of this page used the FEC’s bulk candidate file, so some state totals differ slightly from those versions.
The “top fundraiser” column is not a nominee list. It shows whoever has raised the most among all filers. In some states that person has since lost a primary or left the race. When the top fundraiser is not among the candidates Kalshi or Polymarket currently price, we say so in the table.
Why “decided” is a threshold, not a fact. This page draws the line at 90%. Move it and the headline moves too: at 95%, about 35% of the money sits in decided races; at 80%, about 53%. The ranking is more durable than any single percentage drawn from it.
Where the odds come from. Public price data from Kalshi and Polymarket, using the midpoint of the best bid and ask when the spread is tight, otherwise the last trade. A price of 90¢ means a 90% implied chance. We add up each exchange’s candidate contracts by party, because these state races are best compared at the party level, and report the favored party rather than a person. “Competitive” means the favorite is under 70% on average, “leaning” 70% to 89%, and “decided” 90% or more.
What it does not tell you. Markets can be wrong, and thinly traded state races can move on small trades. Treat 90% as a strong consensus, not a result.
Compiled by Arthur Angelo from Federal Election Commission filings and Kalshi and Polymarket market data. Updated automatically every day; last updated Oct 24, 2026. Free to cite with attribution and a link. See our live odds pages for each race, the 2026 midterms tracker for venue-by-venue prices, or the methodology behind our platform scores.