As of September 9, 2026, the US Recession in 2026 market prices a 4.0% chance of the event happening (4¢ per contract on Kalshi) — so traders put roughly 96% on it not happening. Live prices below are pulled directly from Kalshi and Polymarket.
2026 Recession Odds on Kalshi
| Outcome | Implied probability | Price | Bid / Ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starts | 4.0% | 4¢ | 4¢ / 5¢ |
2026 Recession Odds on Polymarket
| Outcome | Implied probability | Price | Bid / Ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | 7.5% | 8¢ | 7¢ / 8¢ |
Where 2026 Recession Odds Have Been
The market last closed at 6.0% (Sep 9, 2026). That is -2 points since Aug 10, 2026 (8.0%). Since Mar 14, 2026, the earliest daily price we track for this market, it has moved -30 points from 36%.
| Date | Kalshi |
|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 36% |
| Apr 19, 2026 | 25% |
| May 25, 2026 | 17% |
| Jun 29, 2026 | 10% |
| Aug 4, 2026 | 6.0% |
| Sep 9, 2026 | 6.0% |
Across that period the market ranged from a low of 4.0% on Sep 6, 2026 to a high of 40% on Mar 30, 2026. Prices are daily closes from Kalshi.
Market Odds vs the Fed’s Own Model
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a recession probability derived from the Treasury yield curve, looking twelve months ahead. Its latest reading, which projects to 46630.0, puts the chance of a US recession at 13.9%.
The contract that covers the same horizon is priced well above that. Kalshi’s 2027 recession market — two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth between Q4 2026 and Q4 2027 — trades at 24%, higher than the Fed model’s 13.9%. On the twelve-month view, traders are pricing more recession risk than the yield curve implies, not less.
The market on this page asks a narrower question: whether two consecutive negative GDP quarters land in 2025 or 2026, a window with only months left to run. It trades at 4.0%. That is not the Fed model’s question and should not be read against it — a nearly-closed window will almost always price below a forward one.
The input to the Fed model is the spread between 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields, which stood at 0.86 points on 2026-09-08. A positive spread is the normal shape; the model reads recession risk from how flat or inverted the curve becomes.
Definitions differ and it matters. The Kalshi contracts settle on two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth per the Bureau of Economic Analysis — not on an NBER declaration, despite the ticker name. The New York Fed model estimates NBER-style recession risk from the yield curve. Model data: Federal Reserve Bank of New York; yield spread: FRED series T10Y3M.
About This Market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has…
How to Trade This Market
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, all 50 states for economic and financial markets) and Polymarket (lowest fees, iOS in 49 states) both offer event markets; see our head-to-head comparison or run your trade through the fee calculator before placing it. New to event contracts? Start with how prediction markets work.
More Economics & Fed Odds
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Common Questions
What are the odds in the US Recession in 2026 market?
As of September 9, 2026, the market prices a 4.0% chance of the event happening (a 4¢ contract on Kalshi), leaving about 96% that it does not. Prices move constantly as traders buy and sell; the tables on this page show the latest synced prices.
Where can I trade the 2026 Recession market?
This market trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in all 50 states for economic and financial markets; Polymarket US is open to iOS users in 49 states. See our platform reviews for fees and details.
How do prediction market odds work?
Contracts pay $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so the price is the market’s implied probability: a 62¢ contract means traders collectively price a 62% chance. Odds come from real money changing hands, not from polls or pundits.
Prices synced September 9, 2026 from public Kalshi and Polymarket market data by Arthur Angelo. Odds move constantly; check the exchange for execution prices. This page is informational — not investment advice. PredictionScout may earn commissions from platform links; see our affiliate disclosure. More markets: all live odds pages.