As of September 9, 2026, Fed maintains rate is favored in the Fed Rate Decision — October 2026 market, at an implied probability of about 68% (68¢ per contract on Kalshi). Live prices below are pulled directly from Kalshi.
October Fed Decision Odds on Kalshi
| Outcome | Implied probability | Price | Bid / Ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed maintains rate | 68% | 68¢ | 68¢ / 69¢ |
| Hike 25bps | 27% | 27¢ | 27¢ / 28¢ |
| Cut 25bps | 4.0% | 4¢ | 3¢ / 4¢ |
| Cut >25bps | 2.0% | 2¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ |
| Hike >25bps | 2.0% | 2¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ |
Where October Fed Decision Odds Have Been
Fed maintains rate last closed at 68% (Sep 9, 2026). That is -2 points since Aug 10, 2026 (70%). Since Mar 25, 2026, the earliest daily price we track for this market, it has moved -6 points from 74%.
| Date | Kalshi |
|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2026 | 74% |
| May 15, 2026 | 81% |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 66% |
| Jul 25, 2026 | 58% |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 73% |
| Sep 9, 2026 | 68% |
Across that period the market ranged from a low of 49% on Jun 4, 2026 to a high of 91% on May 4, 2026. Prices are daily closes from Kalshi.
What the Market Expects the Fed to Do
The Fed’s target range is currently 3.50%–3.75% (as of 2026-09-08). These are the prices on the decision itself:
| Decision | Implied probability |
|---|---|
| Fed maintains rate | 68% |
| Hike 25bps | 27% |
| Cut 25bps | 4.0% |
| Cut >25bps | 2.0% |
| Hike >25bps | 2.0% |
Prices from Kalshi’s decision market for this meeting. A separate strike ladder (“above 3.50%%”, “above 3.75%%”) trades on the same event and is shown below; it prices the level of the target range upper bound after the meeting, which is cumulative across meetings, so its numbers do not line up one-to-one with a single decision. Current target range from FRED series DFEDTARU and DFEDTARL.
About This Market
If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to Trade This Market
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, all 50 states for economic and financial markets) and Polymarket (lowest fees, iOS in 49 states) both offer event markets; see our head-to-head comparison or run your trade through the fee calculator before placing it. New to event contracts? Start with how prediction markets work.
More Economics & Fed Odds
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Common Questions
Who is favored to win the Fed Rate Decision — October 2026 market?
As of September 9, 2026, Fed maintains rate is favored, at an implied probability of about 68% (a 68¢ contract on Kalshi). Prices move constantly as traders buy and sell; the tables on this page show the latest synced prices.
Where can I trade the October Fed Decision market?
This market trades on Kalshi. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in all 50 states for economic and financial markets; Polymarket US is open to iOS users in 49 states. See our platform reviews for fees and details.
How do prediction market odds work?
Contracts pay $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so the price is the market’s implied probability: a 62¢ contract means traders collectively price a 62% chance. Odds come from real money changing hands, not from polls or pundits.
Prices synced September 9, 2026 from public Kalshi and Polymarket market data by Arthur Angelo. Odds move constantly; check the exchange for execution prices. This page is informational — not investment advice. PredictionScout may earn commissions from platform links; see our affiliate disclosure. More markets: all live odds pages.