As of October 24, 2026, Fed maintains rate is the favorite in the Fed Rate Decision — October 2026 market, leading at an implied probability of about 92% (93¢ per contract on Kalshi). Live prices below are pulled directly from Kalshi and Polymarket.
October Fed Decision Odds on Kalshi
| Outcome | Implied probability | Price | Bid / Ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed maintains rate | 92% | 93¢ | 92¢ / 93¢ |
| Hike 25bps | 6.5% | 7¢ | 6¢ / 7¢ |
| Cut >25bps | 0.5% | 1¢ | <1¢ / 1¢ |
| Cut 25bps | 0.5% | 1¢ | <1¢ / 1¢ |
| Hike >25bps | 0.5% | 1¢ | <1¢ / 1¢ |
Source: Kalshi — Fed decision in Oct 2026?. Probability = midpoint of the current bid/ask.
October Fed Decision Odds on Polymarket
| Outcome | Implied probability | Price | Bid / Ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 94% | 95¢ | 94¢ / 95¢ |
| 25 bps increase | 4.5% | 5¢ | 4¢ / 5¢ |
| 50+ bps increase | <0.5% | <1¢ | <1¢ / <1¢ |
| 25 bps decrease | <0.5% | <1¢ | <1¢ / <1¢ |
| 50+ bps decrease † | <0.5% | <1¢ |
† Thinly traded: no tight bid/ask quote, so this price can be far from where a trade would fill.
Source: Polymarket — Fed Decision in October?.
Market Odds vs the Fed Watchers
These prices are directly comparable to the CME FedWatch tool, which derives rate-decision probabilities from fed funds futures. Prediction market odds and futures-implied odds usually track closely; gaps between them are worth noting because both are backed by real positions.
About This Market
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting. If the…
How to Trade This Market
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, all 50 states for political markets) and Polymarket (lowest fees, iOS in 49 states) both offer event markets; see our head-to-head comparison or run your trade through the fee calculator before placing it. New to event contracts? Start with how prediction markets work.
More Economics & Fed Odds
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Common Questions
Who is favored to win the Fed Rate Decision — October 2026 market?
As of October 24, 2026, Fed maintains rate is the favorite: prediction markets give it an implied probability of about 92% (a 93¢ contract on Kalshi). Prices move constantly as traders buy and sell; the tables on this page show the latest synced prices.
Where can I trade the October Fed Decision market?
This market trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in all 50 states for political markets; Polymarket US is open to iOS users in 49 states. See our platform reviews for fees and details.
How do prediction market odds work?
Contracts pay $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so the price is the market’s implied probability: a 62¢ contract means traders collectively price a 62% chance. Odds come from real money changing hands, not from polls or pundits.
Prices synced October 24, 2026 from public Kalshi and Polymarket market data. Odds move constantly; check the exchange for execution prices. This page is informational — not investment advice. PredictionScout may earn commissions from platform links; see our affiliate disclosure. More markets: all live odds pages.