As of September 9, 2026, Darian Mensah is favored in the Heisman Trophy Winner market, at an implied probability of about 17% (17¢ per contract on Kalshi). Live prices below are pulled directly from Kalshi.
Heisman Trophy Odds on Kalshi
| Nominee | Implied probability | Price | Bid / Ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darian Mensah | 17% | 17¢ | 16¢ / 17¢ |
| Arch Manning | 9.0% | 9¢ | 8¢ / 9¢ |
| CJ Carr | 9.0% | 9¢ | 8¢ / 9¢ |
| Jeremiah Smith | 7.0% | 7¢ | 6¢ / 7¢ |
| Malachi Toney | 7.0% | 7¢ | 6¢ / 7¢ |
| Julian Sayin | 6.0% | 6¢ | 5¢ / 6¢ |
| Trinidad Chambliss | 6.0% | 6¢ | 5¢ / 6¢ |
| Dante Moore | 6.0% | 6¢ | 5¢ / 6¢ |
| Sam Leavitt | 6.0% | 6¢ | 5¢ / 6¢ |
| Jayden Maiava | 4.0% | 4¢ | 4¢ / 5¢ |
| Josh Hoover | 4.0% | 4¢ | 3¢ / 4¢ |
| John Mateer | 4.0% | 4¢ | 3¢ / 4¢ |
Plus 26 lower-probability outcomes not shown.
Where Heisman Trophy Odds Have Been
Darian Mensah last closed at 16% (Sep 9, 2026). That is +8 points since Aug 10, 2026 (8.0%). Since Mar 14, 2026, the earliest daily price we track for this market, it has moved +10 points from 6.0%.
| Date | Kalshi |
|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 6.0% |
| Apr 24, 2026 | 11% |
| May 31, 2026 | 7.0% |
| Jul 4, 2026 | 6.0% |
| Aug 7, 2026 | 8.0% |
| Sep 9, 2026 | 16% |
Across that period the market ranged from a low of 5.0% on Apr 17, 2026 to a high of 16% on Sep 9, 2026. Prices are daily closes from Kalshi.
Prediction Market Prices vs Sportsbook Odds
Sportsbooks like DraftKings, FanDuel, and ESPN BET quote American odds (+450, −200) that include the house’s built-in margin, and expert odds lists update on their own schedule. Prediction market prices are different: they are tradable implied probabilities set peer-to-peer, with no bookmaker line to beat, and you can sell your position before the winner is announced. To compare: a 25¢ contract is roughly +300 in American odds.
About This Market
If Jeremiah Smith wins the College Football Heisman Trophy in the 2026-2027 college football season, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to Trade This Market
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, all 50 states for political markets) and Polymarket (lowest fees, iOS in 49 states) both offer event markets; see our head-to-head comparison or run your trade through the fee calculator before placing it. New to event contracts? Start with how prediction markets work.
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Common Questions
Who is favored to win the Heisman Trophy Winner market?
As of September 9, 2026, Darian Mensah is favored, at an implied probability of about 17% (a 17¢ contract on Kalshi). Prices move constantly as traders buy and sell; the tables on this page show the latest synced prices.
Where can I trade the Heisman Trophy market?
This market trades on Kalshi. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in all 50 states for political markets; Polymarket US is open to iOS users in 49 states. See our platform reviews for fees and details.
How do prediction market odds work?
Contracts pay $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so the price is the market’s implied probability: a 62¢ contract means traders collectively price a 62% chance. Odds come from real money changing hands, not from polls or pundits.
Prices synced September 9, 2026 from public Kalshi and Polymarket market data by Arthur Angelo. Odds move constantly; check the exchange for execution prices. This page is informational — not investment advice. PredictionScout may earn commissions from platform links; see our affiliate disclosure. More markets: all live odds pages.