As of October 24, 2026, Jeremiah Smith is the favorite in the Heisman Trophy Winner market, leading at an implied probability of about 38% (38¢ per contract on Kalshi). Live prices below are pulled directly from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Heisman Trophy Odds
The same nominee often trades at different prices on different exchanges. The platforms currently disagree most on Jesse Legree: 2.5% on Kalshi vs 6.0% on Polymarket — gaps like this are where price-sensitive traders shop between venues.
| Nominee | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Smith | 38% | 41% | 3.0 pts |
| Darian Mensah | 20% | 22% | 2.0 pts |
| Malachi Toney | 18% | 18% | 0.0 pts |
| CJ Carr | 4.5% | 2.1% | 2.4 pts |
| Trinidad Chambliss | 3.5% | 3.1% | 0.4 pts |
| Jesse Legree | 2.5% | 6.0% | 3.5 pts |
| Gunner Stockton | 1.5% | 3.0% | 1.5 pts |
| Drew Mestemaker | 1.5% | 3.8% | 2.3 pts |
| Sam Leavitt | 1.0% | 2.9% | 1.9 pts |
| Julian Sayin | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.4 pts |
| Arch Manning | 0.5% | 2.2% | 1.7 pts |
| Ahmad Hardy | 0.5% | 3.9% | 3.4 pts |
Heisman Trophy Odds on Kalshi
| Nominee | Implied probability | Price | Bid / Ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Smith | 38% | 38¢ | 37¢ / 39¢ |
| Darian Mensah | 20% | 20¢ | 19¢ / 21¢ |
| Malachi Toney | 18% | 19¢ | 18¢ / 19¢ |
| CJ Carr | 4.5% | 5¢ | 4¢ / 5¢ |
| Trinidad Chambliss | 3.5% | 4¢ | 3¢ / 4¢ |
| Jesse Legree | 2.5% | 3¢ | 2¢ / 3¢ |
| Gunner Stockton | 1.5% | 2¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ |
| Drew Mestemaker | 1.5% | 2¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ |
| Sam Leavitt | 1.0% | 1¢ | <1¢ / 2¢ |
| Julian Sayin | 0.5% | 1¢ | <1¢ / 1¢ |
| Arch Manning | 0.5% | 1¢ | <1¢ / 1¢ |
| Ahmad Hardy | 0.5% | 1¢ | <1¢ / 1¢ |
Plus 37 lower-probability outcomes not shown.
Source: Kalshi — Heisman Trophy Winner. Probability = midpoint of the current bid/ask.
Heisman Trophy Odds on Polymarket
| Nominee | Implied probability | Price | Bid / Ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiah Smith | 41% | 41¢ | 38¢ / 44¢ |
| Darian Mensah | 22% | 22¢ | 21¢ / 23¢ |
| Malachi Toney | 18% | 18¢ | 15¢ / 20¢ |
| Jesse Legree † | 6.0% | 6¢ | <1¢ / 12¢ |
| Ahmad Hardy | 3.9% | 4¢ | <1¢ / 8¢ |
| Drew Mestemaker | 3.8% | 4¢ | <1¢ / 7¢ |
| Kewan Lacy | 3.5% | 3¢ | <1¢ / 7¢ |
| Trinidad Chambliss | 3.1% | 3¢ | <1¢ / 6¢ |
| Gunner Stockton | 3.0% | 3¢ | <1¢ / 6¢ |
| Sam Leavitt | 2.9% | 3¢ | <1¢ / 6¢ |
| LaNorris Sellers | 2.5% | 3¢ | <1¢ / 5¢ |
| Bo Jackson | 2.5% | 2¢ | <1¢ / 5¢ |
Plus 20 lower-probability outcomes not shown.
† Thinly traded: no tight bid/ask quote, so this price can be far from where a trade would fill.
Source: Polymarket — NCAA Football: 2026 Heisman Award Winner.
Prediction Market Prices vs Sportsbook Odds
Sportsbooks like DraftKings, FanDuel, and ESPN BET quote American odds (+450, −200) that include the house’s built-in margin, and expert odds lists update on their own schedule. Prediction market prices are different: they are tradable implied probabilities set peer-to-peer, with no bookmaker line to beat, and you can sell your position before the winner is announced. To compare: a 25¢ contract is roughly +300 in American odds.
About This Market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Heisman Trophy, awarded to the most outstanding player in college football, with the winner announced at the Heisman ceremony currently scheduled for December 12, 2026. If the ceremony is postponed after December 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been announced within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple…
How to Trade This Market
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, all 50 states for political markets) and Polymarket (lowest fees, iOS in 49 states) both offer event markets; see our head-to-head comparison or run your trade through the fee calculator before placing it. New to event contracts? Start with how prediction markets work.
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Common Questions
Who is favored to win the Heisman Trophy Winner market?
As of October 24, 2026, Jeremiah Smith is the favorite: prediction markets give it an implied probability of about 38% (a 38¢ contract on Kalshi). Prices move constantly as traders buy and sell; the tables on this page show the latest synced prices.
Where can I trade the Heisman Trophy market?
This market trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in all 50 states for political markets; Polymarket US is open to iOS users in 49 states. See our platform reviews for fees and details.
How do prediction market odds work?
Contracts pay $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so the price is the market’s implied probability: a 62¢ contract means traders collectively price a 62% chance. Odds come from real money changing hands, not from polls or pundits.
Prices synced October 24, 2026 from public Kalshi and Polymarket market data. Odds move constantly; check the exchange for execution prices. This page is informational — not investment advice. PredictionScout may earn commissions from platform links; see our affiliate disclosure. More markets: all live odds pages.