As of October 24, 2026, J.D. Vance is the favorite in the 2028 Republican Presidential Nominee market, leading at an implied probability of about 40% (41¢ per contract on Kalshi). Live prices below are pulled directly from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: 2028 Republican Nominee Odds
The same candidate often trades at different prices on different exchanges. The platforms currently disagree most on J.D. Vance: 40% on Kalshi vs 44% on Polymarket — gaps like this are where price-sensitive traders shop between venues.
| Candidate | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 40% | 44% | 4.0 pts |
| Marco Rubio | 18% | 15% | 3.0 pts |
| Ron DeSantis | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.6 pts |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.7 pts |
| Tucker Carlson | 2.6% | 3.0% | 0.4 pts |
| Ted Cruz | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.1 pts |
| Donald J. Trump | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.3 pts |
| Brian Kemp | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.9 pts |
| Glenn Youngkin | 1.2% | <0.5% | 1.0 pts |
| Ivanka Trump | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.4 pts |
| Thomas Massie | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.0 pts |
| Josh Hawley | 0.8% | <0.5% | 0.4 pts |
2028 Republican Nominee Odds on Kalshi
| Candidate | Implied probability | Price | Bid / Ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 40% | 41¢ | 40¢ / 41¢ |
| Marco Rubio | 18% | 19¢ | 18¢ / 19¢ |
| Ron DeSantis | 4.9% | 5¢ | 5¢ / 5¢ |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 2.6% | 3¢ | 3¢ / 3¢ |
| Tucker Carlson | 2.6% | 3¢ | 3¢ / 3¢ |
| Ted Cruz | 2.2% | 2¢ | 2¢ / 2¢ |
| Donald J. Trump | 2.1% | 2¢ | 2¢ / 2¢ |
| Brian Kemp | 1.4% | 1¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ |
| Glenn Youngkin | 1.2% | 1¢ | 1¢ / 1¢ |
| Ivanka Trump | 1.1% | 1¢ | 1¢ / 1¢ |
| Thomas Massie | 0.9% | 1¢ | 1¢ / 1¢ |
| Josh Hawley | 0.8% | 1¢ | 1¢ / 1¢ |
Plus 33 lower-probability outcomes not shown.
Source: Kalshi — 2028 Republican presidential nominee. Probability = midpoint of the current bid/ask.
2028 Republican Nominee Odds on Polymarket
| Candidate | Implied probability | Price | Bid / Ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 44% | 44¢ | 44¢ / 44¢ |
| Marco Rubio | 15% | 15¢ | 15¢ / 15¢ |
| Ron DeSantis | 3.3% | 3¢ | 3¢ / 3¢ |
| Tucker Carlson | 3.0% | 3¢ | 3¢ / 3¢ |
| Ted Cruz | 2.1% | 2¢ | 2¢ / 2¢ |
| Donald Trump | 1.9% | 2¢ | 2¢ / 2¢ |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.8% | 2¢ | 2¢ / 2¢ |
| Ivanka Trump | 1.5% | 1¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ |
| Thomas Massie | 0.9% | 1¢ | 1¢ / 1¢ |
| Brian Kemp | 0.5% | 1¢ | 1¢ / 1¢ |
| Pete Hegseth | <0.5% | <1¢ | <1¢ / 1¢ |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | <0.5% | <1¢ | <1¢ / <1¢ |
Plus 31 lower-probability outcomes not shown.
Source: Polymarket — Republican Presidential Nominee 2028.
About the 2028 Republican Nominee Race
The markets currently track 45 candidates in this race. Those running, as priced by traders, include J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald J. Trump Jr., Tucker Carlson. Election Day is November 7, 2028.
Market Odds vs Polls
Polls measure who people say they support; prediction market odds measure where traders put real money. Polling averages update every few days or weeks, while market prices react to news within minutes — including primary results, debate moments, and fundraising reports. Markets also price primary races and nominee fields before pollsters survey them. Neither is infallible: polls carry sampling error, and thin markets can be moved by a few large trades. Historically, market prices in aggregate have been well-calibrated — a 70% favorite wins about 70% of the time.
About This Market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
How to Trade This Market
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, all 50 states for political markets) and Polymarket (lowest fees, iOS in 49 states) both offer event markets; see our head-to-head comparison or run your trade through the fee calculator before placing it. New to event contracts? Start with how prediction markets work.
More 2028 Presidential Race Odds
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Common Questions
Who is favored to win the 2028 Republican Presidential Nominee market?
As of October 24, 2026, J.D. Vance is the favorite: prediction markets give it an implied probability of about 40% (a 41¢ contract on Kalshi). Prices move constantly as traders buy and sell; the tables on this page show the latest synced prices.
Where can I trade the 2028 Republican Nominee market?
This market trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in all 50 states for political markets; Polymarket US is open to iOS users in 49 states. See our platform reviews for fees and details.
How do prediction market odds work?
Contracts pay $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so the price is the market’s implied probability: a 62¢ contract means traders collectively price a 62% chance. Odds come from real money changing hands, not from polls or pundits.
Who is running in the 2028 Republican Presidential Nominee?
The markets currently track 45 candidates. The leading names by market price are J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, Donald J. Trump Jr., Tucker Carlson. Candidate fields can change until filing deadlines pass.
When will the 2028 Republican Nominee market settle?
Election Day is November 7, 2028. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 once the outcome is officially determined.
Prices synced October 24, 2026 from public Kalshi and Polymarket market data. Odds move constantly; check the exchange for execution prices. This page is informational — not investment advice. PredictionScout may earn commissions from platform links; see our affiliate disclosure. More markets: all live odds pages.