As of October 24, 2026, J.D. Vance is the favorite in the 2028 Presidential Election market, leading at an implied probability of about 20% (21¢ per contract on Kalshi). Live prices below are pulled directly from Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: 2028 Presidential Election Odds
The same candidate often trades at different prices on different exchanges. The platforms currently disagree most on Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: 9.0% on Kalshi vs 13% on Polymarket — gaps like this are where price-sensitive traders shop between venues.
| Candidate | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 20% | 21% | 1.0 pts |
| Gavin Newsom | 12% | 10% | 2.0 pts |
| Marco Rubio | 9.8% | 9.0% | 0.8 pts |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 9.0% | 13% | 4.0 pts |
| Jon Ossoff | 8.8% | 9.4% | 0.6 pts |
| Kamala Harris | 3.8% | 4.0% | 0.2 pts |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.8% | 2.8% | 0.0 pts |
| Josh Shapiro | 2.6% | 2.9% | 0.3 pts |
| Andy Beshear | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.5 pts |
| Donald J. Trump | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.1 pts |
| Ron DeSantis | 2.6% | 2.5% | 0.1 pts |
| Mark Kelly | 2.5% | 1.1% | 1.4 pts |
2028 Presidential Election Odds on Kalshi
| Candidate | Implied probability | Price | Bid / Ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 20% | 21¢ | 20¢ / 21¢ |
| Gavin Newsom | 12% | 13¢ | 12¢ / 13¢ |
| Marco Rubio | 9.8% | 10¢ | 10¢ / 10¢ |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 9.0% | 9¢ | 9¢ / 9¢ |
| Jon Ossoff | 8.8% | 9¢ | 9¢ / 9¢ |
| Kamala Harris | 3.8% | 4¢ | 4¢ / 4¢ |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.8% | 3¢ | 3¢ / 3¢ |
| Josh Shapiro | 2.6% | 3¢ | 3¢ / 3¢ |
| Andy Beshear | 2.6% | 3¢ | 3¢ / 3¢ |
| Donald J. Trump | 2.6% | 3¢ | 3¢ / 3¢ |
| Ron DeSantis | 2.6% | 3¢ | 2¢ / 3¢ |
| Mark Kelly | 2.5% | 2¢ | 2¢ / 3¢ |
Plus 22 lower-probability outcomes not shown.
Source: Kalshi — 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?. Probability = midpoint of the current bid/ask.
2028 Presidential Election Odds on Polymarket
| Candidate | Implied probability | Price | Bid / Ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 21% | 21¢ | 21¢ / 21¢ |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13% | 13¢ | 13¢ / 13¢ |
| Gavin Newsom | 10% | 10¢ | 10¢ / 10¢ |
| Jon Ossoff | 9.4% | 9¢ | 9¢ / 10¢ |
| Marco Rubio | 9.0% | 9¢ | 9¢ / 10¢ |
| Kamala Harris | 4.0% | 4¢ | 4¢ / 4¢ |
| Josh Shapiro | 2.9% | 3¢ | 3¢ / 3¢ |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.8% | 3¢ | 3¢ / 3¢ |
| Ron DeSantis | 2.5% | 3¢ | 2¢ / 3¢ |
| Andy Beshear | 2.1% | 2¢ | 2¢ / 2¢ |
| James Talarico | 1.8% | 2¢ | 2¢ / 2¢ |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.6% | 2¢ | 2¢ / 2¢ |
Plus 42 lower-probability outcomes not shown.
Source: Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2028.
About the 2028 Presidential Election Race
The markets currently track 34 candidates in this race. Those running, as priced by traders, include J.D. Vance, Gavin Newsom, Marco Rubio, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff. Election Day is November 7, 2028.
Market Odds vs Polls
Polls measure who people say they support; prediction market odds measure where traders put real money. Polling averages update every few days or weeks, while market prices react to news within minutes — including primary results, debate moments, and fundraising reports. Markets also price primary races and nominee fields before pollsters survey them. Neither is infallible: polls carry sampling error, and thin markets can be moved by a few large trades. Historically, market prices in aggregate have been well-calibrated — a 70% favorite wins about 70% of the time.
About This Market
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the…
How to Trade This Market
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, all 50 states for political markets) and Polymarket (lowest fees, iOS in 49 states) both offer event markets; see our head-to-head comparison or run your trade through the fee calculator before placing it. New to event contracts? Start with how prediction markets work.
More 2028 Presidential Race Odds
2028 Democratic Nominee · 2028 Republican Nominee · all live odds
Common Questions
Who is favored to win the 2028 Presidential Election market?
As of October 24, 2026, J.D. Vance is the favorite: prediction markets give it an implied probability of about 20% (a 21¢ contract on Kalshi). Prices move constantly as traders buy and sell; the tables on this page show the latest synced prices.
Where can I trade the 2028 Presidential Election market?
This market trades on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in all 50 states for political markets; Polymarket US is open to iOS users in 49 states. See our platform reviews for fees and details.
How do prediction market odds work?
Contracts pay $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so the price is the market’s implied probability: a 62¢ contract means traders collectively price a 62% chance. Odds come from real money changing hands, not from polls or pundits.
Who is running in the 2028 Presidential Election?
The markets currently track 34 candidates. The leading names by market price are J.D. Vance, Gavin Newsom, Marco Rubio, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff. Candidate fields can change until filing deadlines pass.
When will the 2028 Presidential Election market settle?
Election Day is November 7, 2028. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 once the outcome is officially determined.
Prices synced October 24, 2026 from public Kalshi and Polymarket market data. Odds move constantly; check the exchange for execution prices. This page is informational — not investment advice. PredictionScout may earn commissions from platform links; see our affiliate disclosure. More markets: all live odds pages.