As of October 24, 2026, Georgia is the favorite in the Closest Governor Race of 2026 market, leading at an implied probability of about 18% (18¢ per contract on Kalshi). Live prices below are pulled directly from Kalshi.
Closest Governor Race Odds on Kalshi
| Candidate | Implied probability | Price | Bid / Ask |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia | 18% | 18¢ | 17¢ / 18¢ |
| Nevada | 10.0% | 10¢ | 10¢ / 10¢ |
| Ohio | 8.9% | 9¢ | 8¢ / 10¢ |
| Kansas | 8.6% | 9¢ | 8¢ / 9¢ |
| Texas | 7.5% | 8¢ | 7¢ / 8¢ |
| Wisconsin | 6.3% | 6¢ | 5¢ / 8¢ |
| Florida | 5.5% | 6¢ | 5¢ / 6¢ |
| Nebraska | 4.5% | 5¢ | 3¢ / 6¢ |
| Oregon | 4.5% | 5¢ | 4¢ / 5¢ |
| Vermont | 3.5% | 4¢ | 3¢ / 4¢ |
| Iowa | 1.8% | 2¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ |
| South Carolina | 1.5% | 2¢ | 1¢ / 2¢ |
Plus 12 lower-probability outcomes not shown.
Source: Kalshi — Closest Governor race in 2026?. Probability = midpoint of the current bid/ask.
About the Closest Governor Race Race
The markets currently track 24 candidates in this race. Those running, as priced by traders, include Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, Kansas, Texas. Election Day is November 3, 2026.
Market Odds vs Polls
Polls measure who people say they support; prediction market odds measure where traders put real money. Polling averages update every few days or weeks, while market prices react to news within minutes — including primary results, debate moments, and fundraising reports. Markets also price primary races and nominee fields before pollsters survey them. Neither is infallible: polls carry sampling error, and thin markets can be moved by a few large trades. Historically, market prices in aggregate have been well-calibrated — a 70% favorite wins about 70% of the time.
About This Market
If Georgia has the smallest margin of victory among all elections in the 2026 United States gubernatorial elections as of Jan 20, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
How to Trade This Market
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated, all 50 states for political markets) and Polymarket (lowest fees, iOS in 49 states) both offer event markets; see our head-to-head comparison or run your trade through the fee calculator before placing it. New to event contracts? Start with how prediction markets work.
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Common Questions
Who is favored to win the Closest Governor Race of 2026 market?
As of October 24, 2026, Georgia is the favorite: prediction markets give it an implied probability of about 18% (a 18¢ contract on Kalshi). Prices move constantly as traders buy and sell; the tables on this page show the latest synced prices.
Where can I trade the Closest Governor Race market?
This market trades on Kalshi. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange available in all 50 states for political markets; Polymarket US is open to iOS users in 49 states. See our platform reviews for fees and details.
How do prediction market odds work?
Contracts pay $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so the price is the market’s implied probability: a 62¢ contract means traders collectively price a 62% chance. Odds come from real money changing hands, not from polls or pundits.
Who is running in the Closest Governor Race of 2026?
The markets currently track 24 candidates. The leading names by market price are Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, Kansas, Texas. Candidate fields can change until filing deadlines pass.
When will the Closest Governor Race market settle?
Election Day is November 3, 2026. Contracts settle at $1 or $0 once the outcome is officially determined.
Prices synced October 24, 2026 from public Kalshi and Polymarket market data. Odds move constantly; check the exchange for execution prices. This page is informational — not investment advice. PredictionScout may earn commissions from platform links; see our affiliate disclosure. More markets: all live odds pages.