Moving the price of a 2026 Senate race on Kalshi by 5¢ takes a median of $1,314 in resting orders.
We read Kalshi’s public order book for 34 open 2026 Senate races and added up the resting orders a trader would have to fill to push a contract 5¢ up or down. For each race we report the cheapest such move across both party contracts. Order books change minute to minute; this is a snapshot taken Oct 15, 2026, 10:49 AM ET.
Kalshi public order book, pulled Oct 15, 2026, 10:49 AM ET. Updated daily.
By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 15, 2026, 10:49 AM ET
Key findings
- Deepest: Texas, $277,163. That is about 707,657 contracts at the current order book.
- Thinnest: Wyoming, $12. About 10,617 contracts.
- 22 of 34 races could move 5¢ for under $10,000 in a single direction, before any new orders arrived.
- Depth is not the same as trading volume. A race can have millions of contracts traded and still have little resting near the current price. Market makers also refill orders after a large trade, so the move would often not last.
Every open 2026 Senate race
Rows are listed from deepest to thinnest race. “Up 5¢” is what it costs to buy every resting offer from the current ask to 5¢ above it; “down 5¢” is the value of every resting bid from the current bid to 5¢ below it. Contract labels are Kalshi’s.
| Race | Contract | Bid / ask | Contracts to move up 5¢ | Dollars, up | Contracts to move down 5¢ | Dollars, down | Contracts traded (all time) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | Democratic | 63¢ / 64¢ | 1,254,127 | $816,766 | 509,339 | $311,315 | 10,212,502 |
| Texas | Republican | 37¢ / 38¢ | 707,657 | $277,163 | 893,117 | $315,058 | 17,543,412 |
| Ohio (special) | Democratic | 59¢ / 60¢ | 438,617 | $264,491 | 361,122 | $205,006 | 3,477,689 |
| Ohio (special) | Republican | 40¢ / 41¢ | 371,591 | $160,497 | 355,096 | $140,692 | 3,343,481 |
| Maine | Democratic | 56¢ / 57¢ | 357,470 | $209,894 | 293,309 | $158,965 | 4,227,045 |
| Maine | Republican | 43¢ / 44¢ | 328,429 | $150,304 | 291,953 | $120,101 | 4,495,672 |
| Iowa | Democratic | 41¢ / 42¢ | 306,236 | $131,933 | 292,545 | $112,219 | 2,732,072 |
| Iowa | Republican | 58¢ / 59¢ | 374,070 | $228,983 | 308,435 | $175,529 | 2,479,296 |
| Alaska | Democratic | 73¢ / 74¢ | 302,074 | $231,527 | 341,955 | $248,709 | 1,109,568 |
| Alaska | Republican | 26¢ / 27¢ | 353,063 | $96,158 | 336,704 | $78,742 | 1,628,549 |
| Nebraska | Dan Osborn | 24¢ / 26¢ | 330,138 | $92,507 | 316,870 | $74,873 | 947,386 |
| Nebraska | Republican | 74¢ / 75¢ | 324,842 | $248,052 | 340,712 | $246,167 | 1,484,240 |
| Michigan | Democratic | 68¢ / 69¢ | 180,969 | $126,053 | 117,104 | $78,268 | 2,881,684 |
| Michigan | Republican | 31¢ / 32¢ | 199,300 | $65,607 | 129,693 | $38,479 | 4,142,605 |
| Kansas | Democratic | 36¢ / 37¢ | 187,320 | $71,583 | 97,671 | $34,166 | 2,068,470 |
| Kansas | Republican | 63¢ / 64¢ | 120,906 | $78,760 | 185,300 | $114,956 | 1,414,676 |
| South Carolina | Democratic | 14¢ / 15¢ | 210,510 | $34,975 | 167,677 | $21,445 | 2,048,209 |
| South Carolina | Republican | 85¢ / 86¢ | 193,171 | $167,624 | 158,056 | $132,641 | 1,005,158 |
| New Hampshire | Democratic | 89¢ / 90¢ | 223,815 | $205,002 | 111,384 | $97,017 | 596,218 |
| New Hampshire | Republican | 10¢ / 11¢ | 146,566 | $18,143 | 240,862 | $19,931 | 1,389,819 |
| North Carolina | Democratic | 95.1¢ / 95.4¢ | 646,527 | $634,380 | 432,918 | $405,185 | 1,580,238 |
| North Carolina | Republican | 5¢ / 5.4¢ | 500,551 | $32,895 | 786,938 | $13,536 | 1,701,775 |
| Georgia | Democratic | 95.1¢ / 95.3¢ | 4,476,250 | $4,464,222 | 384,107 | $360,608 | 509,358 |
| Georgia | Republican | 4.6¢ / 4.9¢ | 403,570 | $24,992 | 3,495,914 | $10,796 | 1,260,303 |
| Minnesota | Democratic | 86¢ / 87¢ | 66,848 | $59,115 | 326,894 | $276,548 | 570,219 |
| Minnesota | Republican | 13¢ / 14¢ | 266,264 | $40,605 | 70,462 | $7,723 | 1,404,428 |
| Florida (special) | Democratic | 9¢ / 9.2¢ | 116,610 | $12,222 | 82,789 | $5,727 | 944,519 |
| Florida (special) | Republican | 91.4¢ / 91.6¢ | 83,563 | $77,740 | 102,856 | $91,591 | 441,461 |
| Mississippi | Democratic | 9.1¢ / 9.7¢ | 52,288 | $6,460 | 27,097 | $1,864 | 228,664 |
| Mississippi | Republican | 90.2¢ / 91.2¢ | 19,182 | $17,786 | 20,937 | $18,603 | 137,527 |
| Tennessee | Democratic | 4.4¢ / 5.3¢ | 82,599 | $6,835 | 123,357 | $1,764 | 197,469 |
| Tennessee | Republican | 93.7¢ / 95.5¢ | 129,406 | $127,840 | 52,890 | $48,094 | 221,195 |
| Idaho | Republican | 94.6¢ / 94.7¢ | 121,418 | $119,452 | 89,863 | $82,920 | 152,809 |
| Idaho | Todd Achilles | 4¢ / 5¢ | 41,351 | $2,979 | 70,991 | $1,338 | 169,632 |
| Arkansas | Democratic | 5.9¢ / 6¢ | 56,838 | $4,408 | 59,743 | $1,291 | 170,331 |
| Arkansas | Republican | 94¢ / 94.2¢ | 40,561 | $39,601 | 38,895 | $35,767 | 62,451 |
| South Dakota | Brian Bengs | 4¢ / 5¢ | 20,698 | $1,490 | 52,559 | $1,136 | 137,180 |
| South Dakota | Republican | 95¢ / 96¢ | 152,570 | $150,998 | 21,996 | $20,650 | 100,093 |
| New Jersey | Democratic | 96.3¢ / 96.8¢ | 146,033 | $145,386 | 18,920 | $18,075 | 22,654 |
| New Jersey | Republican | 2.7¢ / 3.4¢ | 18,878 | $853 | 92,477 | $879 | 83,307 |
| Louisiana | Democratic | 3.3¢ / 3.8¢ | 21,758 | $1,139 | 161,175 | $675 | 100,740 |
| Louisiana | Republican | 96.2¢ / 96.3¢ | 251,789 | $250,985 | 25,516 | $24,202 | 92,836 |
| Oklahoma | Democratic | 2.5¢ / 3.3¢ | 18,981 | $872 | 76,588 | $579 | 21,628 |
| Oklahoma | Republican | 96.3¢ / 98¢ | 96,034 | $95,443 | 17,308 | $16,525 | 21,982 |
| Massachusetts | Democratic | 97.8¢ / 98.1¢ | 49,298 | $48,894 | 44,208 | $42,652 | 10,200 |
| Massachusetts | Republican | 2¢ / 2.5¢ | 40,527 | $1,901 | 15,562 | $164 | 33,755 |
| Rhode Island | Democratic | 97.3¢ / 98.9¢ | 112,709 | $112,585 | 39,119 | $36,722 | 18,831 |
| Rhode Island | Republican | 1.5¢ / 2.3¢ | 18,715 | $469 | 72,622 | $84 | 15,909 |
| Virginia | Democratic | 97.4¢ / 97.5¢ | 46,140 | $46,074 | 26,662 | $25,119 | 19,068 |
| Virginia | Republican | 2.5¢ / 2.8¢ | 46,194 | $2,435 | 31,542 | $76 | 16,251 |
| Alabama | Democratic | 1¢ / 2.8¢ | 14,541 | $516 | 42,484 | $61 | 9,971 |
| Alabama | Republican | 97.1¢ / 99.3¢ | 62,234 | $62,159 | 10,782 | $10,344 | 2,878 |
| Illinois | Democratic | 96.8¢ / 98.9¢ | 38,929 | $38,860 | 49,832 | $46,808 | 10,157 |
| Illinois | Republican | 0.5¢ / 2.9¢ | 43,606 | $2,614 | 21,671 | $54 | 8,953 |
| Colorado | Democratic | 98.1¢ / 99.6¢ | 102,565 | $102,460 | 49,883 | $47,313 | 12,720 |
| Colorado | Republican | 0.4¢ / 1.3¢ | 33,457 | $985 | 52,093 | $53 | 20,380 |
| New Mexico | Democratic | 96.8¢ / 97.5¢ | 37,289 | $37,248 | 15,125 | $14,554 | 22,363 |
| New Mexico | Republican | 1.9¢ / 2.7¢ | 15,135 | $429 | 36,345 | $45 | 36,396 |
| Oregon | Democratic | 97.8¢ / 97.9¢ | 60,587 | $60,524 | 20,368 | $19,772 | 4,963 |
| Oregon | Republican | 0.4¢ / 2¢ | 16,445 | $399 | 35,683 | $36 | 7,586 |
| Delaware | Democratic | 97.4¢ / 99.6¢ | 36,581 | $36,533 | 15,413 | $14,881 | 7,773 |
| Delaware | Republican | 1.4¢ / 2.1¢ | 18,410 | $658 | 22,029 | $28 | 19,597 |
| Montana | Democratic | 0.4¢ / 1.8¢ | 17,050 | $730 | 15,365 | $16 | 173,641 |
| Montana | Republican | 92.5¢ / 92.8¢ | 23,283 | $22,117 | 29,782 | $27,106 | 267,092 |
| Montana | Seth Bodnar | 6¢ / 7.7¢ | 45,179 | $4,484 | 41,382 | $975 | 248,789 |
| West Virginia | Democratic | 2¢ / 2.1¢ | 17,142 | $486 | 10,644 | $12 | 18,407 |
| West Virginia | Republican | 97.6¢ / 98.3¢ | 22,774 | $22,717 | 18,350 | $17,816 | 9,484 |
| Wyoming | Democratic | 1.1¢ / 2.4¢ | 62,907 | $3,110 | 10,617 | $12 | 10,008 |
| Wyoming | Republican | 97.5¢ / 99.5¢ | 14,145 | $14,121 | 38,399 | $36,151 | 14,872 |
Order-book figures are resting limit orders on Kalshi only, at the snapshot time. Hidden liquidity, other exchanges and orders placed after a trade are not counted.
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Order-book depth by contract (today) (CSV)
One row per open contract at the snapshot time: best bid and ask and the contracts and dollars needed to move it 5¢. Individual orders are not included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.
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Methodology
- Order books. Kalshi’s public order-book endpoint for every active contract in each 2026 Senate race event (
SENATE<state>-26). Kalshi lists resting bids on both sides; an offer to sell YES at a price equals a bid for NO at 1 minus that price. - Cost to move 5¢. Up: every resting NO bid priced within 5¢ of the best NO bid, i.e. every YES offer from the best ask to 5¢ above it, valued at its YES price. Down: every resting YES bid within 5¢ of the best YES bid, valued at its price. A race’s figure is the smallest of these across its contracts. Fees are ignored.
- Limits. A single daily snapshot of a fast-changing book; liquidity providers typically refill after large trades; other venues (for example Polymarket) are not included. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 15, 2026, 10:49 AM ET.
Cite this research
Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, October 15). How Much Does It Cost to Move a Senate Race on Kalshi? 2026 Order-Book Depth. https://predictionscout.com/research/senate-prediction-market-liquidity/
For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/senate-prediction-market-liquidity/)”
The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Data: Kalshi public order book.
Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.
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