83 min
Typical time from a Kalshi economic-data market closing to its payout, across the Fed, jobs and CPI series below. Sports games settle within minutes; weather waits for the next morning’s official report.
Kalshi API settlement timestamps, pulled Nov 12, 2026, 8:03 AM ET. Updated daily.
By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Nov 12, 2026, 8:03 AM ET
Key findings
- MLB game winner: median 3 min from close to settlement; 90% of the 100 events measured (200 markets) paid within 4 min.
- NFL game winner: median 4 min from close to settlement; 90% of the 100 events measured (200 markets) paid within 6 min.
- Fed rate decision: median 18 min from close to settlement; 90% of the 15 events measured (164 markets) paid within 47 min.
- CPI (monthly): median 72 min from close to settlement; 90% of the 21 events measured (184 markets) paid within 5.9 hours.
- Jobs report (payrolls): median 83 min from close to settlement; 90% of the 21 events measured (243 markets) paid within 3.9 hours.
- CPI (year over year): median 90 min from close to settlement; 90% of the 10 events measured (211 markets) paid within 3.4 hours.
- Unemployment rate: median 1.6 hours from close to settlement; 90% of the 21 events measured (194 markets) paid within 3.9 hours.
- NYC daily high temperature: median 6.2 hours from close to settlement; 90% of the 34 events measured (200 markets) paid within 6.3 hours.
Close to payout, by market
Sports and weather rows use the 200 most recently settled markets in the series; one event (one report or game) contains many markets that settle together, so each event counts once, at the median time of its markets. Economic series cover every event since January 2025. “Close” is when trading stops; “settled” is when Kalshi records the result and credits winning contracts at $1.
| Market | Official source and release time | Markets (events) | Median | 90th percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB game winner | End of game (league result) | 200 (100) | 3 min | 4 min |
| NFL game winner | End of game (league result) | 200 (100) | 4 min | 6 min |
| Fed rate decision | FOMC statement, 2:00 p.m. ET | 164 (15) | 18 min | 47 min |
| CPI (monthly) | BLS CPI release, 8:30 a.m. ET | 184 (21) | 72 min | 5.9 hours |
| Jobs report (payrolls) | BLS Employment Situation, 8:30 a.m. ET | 243 (21) | 83 min | 3.9 hours |
| CPI (year over year) | BLS CPI release, 8:30 a.m. ET | 211 (10) | 90 min | 3.4 hours |
| Unemployment rate | BLS Employment Situation, 8:30 a.m. ET | 194 (21) | 1.6 hours | 3.9 hours |
| NYC daily high temperature | NWS Daily Climate Report (next morning) | 200 (34) | 6.2 hours | 6.3 hours |
How settlement works
Trading in an economic market usually stops a minute or so before the scheduled release (for example 8:29 a.m. ET for a CPI or jobs report). The number is then published by the agency, Kalshi’s market operations team checks it against the rule’s named source, and the market is settled. The rules allow a review period, so a payout can be held if a figure is unclear or disputed. Sports markets close when the game ends and settle on the official league result. Daily temperature markets settle on the National Weather Service Daily Climate Report, which is issued the morning after, so they take hours by design.
What makes a payout slower
- Release timing. A report issued the next morning (weather) cannot settle before it exists.
- Ambiguity. A delayed release, a government shutdown, a correction or a tie at a threshold can lead to a longer review.
- Many strikes at once. CPI and payroll events list dozens of threshold markets that are checked together.
- Weekends and holidays. Results that land outside business hours can wait.
Worked example
On Oct. 14, 2026, the September CPI markets stopped trading at 8:29 a.m. ET; the BLS published the index at 8:30 a.m.; the markets settled at 9:10 a.m. ET, about 41 minutes after close. A trader holding a winning $1 contract bought at 60¢ could withdraw or reuse the $1 from that point. For the Fed decision on Sept. 16, 2026, trading closed at 1:55 p.m. ET and markets settled at 2:20 p.m., 25 minutes later and about 20 minutes after the 2:00 p.m. statement.
For revisions to a figure after settlement, see settlement revisions.
Download the data
Close-to-settlement times by series (CSV)
One row per series: count, median and 90th-percentile minutes, and the latest example timestamps (UTC). No prices. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.
Embed this chart
Methodology
- Data. Kalshi public API, settled markets for each series (economic series: all events closing since Jan. 1, 2025, including Kalshi’s historical endpoint; sports and weather: the 200 most recent markets), fields close_time and settlement_ts.
- Measure. Minutes from close to settlement; markets with missing timestamps or gaps over 7 days are excluded. Each event counts once (median of its markets); median and 90th percentile across events per series.
- No prices. The CSV holds timing statistics only.
- Limits. Times are measured from Kalshi’s recorded close and settlement timestamps for recently settled markets; they describe past practice, not a guarantee. Rules allow longer reviews. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Nov 12, 2026, 8:03 AM ET.
Cite this research
Suggested citation: PredictionScout. (2026, November 12). How Fast Prediction Markets Pay Out After the Official Number. https://predictionscout.com/research/prediction-market-payout-speed/
For a chart or news story: “Source: PredictionScout analysis of public exchange data (https://predictionscout.com/research/prediction-market-payout-speed/)”
The data and charts on this page are free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page. Timestamps: Kalshi public API.
Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.
Related: Settlement revisions · Election-night settlement sources · All research