Presidential Impeachment Prediction Markets and the Historical Record

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Nov 12, 2026, 8:03 AM ET

Key findings

• Four House impeachments of a president since 1789; no Senate conviction.
• Market: Before Apr 1, 2027: 20% · Before May 1, 2027: 26% · Before Jun 1, 2027: 32% · Before Jul 1, 2027: 38% · Before Aug 1, 2027: 44% · Before Oct 1, 2027: 50% · Before Jan 1, 2028: 58%.

The market

Each row pays $1 if the House impeaches the sitting president before that date. Later dates include all earlier ones, so their prices are higher.

Market middle: for “above X” ladders, the point where the implied chance crosses 50% (prices forced to fall as the threshold rises, interpolated between rungs). Prices are the bid/ask midpoint when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade. Events with fewer than 500 contracts traded show “thin trading” instead of a middle, and ladders whose quoted prices contradict each other show “prices out of order”. Pulled Nov 12, 2026, 8:03 AM ET.

The historical record

Over 237 years since 1789, that is four House impeachments of three presidents. Resolutions to impeach are introduced far more often; most are referred to committee and never get a floor vote.

How it settles

The contract resolves Yes when the full House of Representatives adopts at least one article of impeachment against the sitting president by a simple majority of members voting, before the date in the contract. Introducing a resolution, a committee vote, or a vote to table or refer does not count. Senate conviction is not required, and a later acquittal does not change the result.

What moves it

A floor vote needs a majority in the House, so the party balance after the November 2026 midterm elections, and when the new Congress is sworn in on Jan. 3, 2027, is central to how these contracts are priced. Leadership controls what reaches the floor, though any member can force a vote on an impeachment resolution as a privileged question; such votes are usually tabled or referred, which does not count.

Worked example

If “before Jan. 1, 2027” trades at 4% and “before Apr. 1, 2027” at 35%, the market puts about 31 points of probability on a first impeachment vote between January and March 2027, after the new Congress takes office. A 35-cent contract pays $1 only if the House adopts an article by March 31, 2027.

Download the data

Impeachment markets (one row per event) (CSV)

One row per live event: market middle, contracts listed and traded, and the latest official value. No contract prices or price histories. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Methodology

• Markets. Open Kalshi events for each series, read from the public API. Prices are bid/ask midpoints when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade.
• Official values. Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives, roll-call votes on articles of impeachment; Senate Historical Office for trial outcomes.
• No prices in the CSV. One row per event: market middle, contracts listed and traded, and the latest official value.
• Limits. Market middles are snapshots, not forecasts we endorse. Official values shown are the latest published, not necessarily the period each market settles on. Thinly traded events are flagged. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Nov 12, 2026, 8:03 AM ET.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

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