South Dakota Corn Yield Prediction Markets vs USDA Forecasts

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Nov 12, 2026, 8:04 AM ET

Key findings

• USDA forecast (November 10, 2026): 153.0 bu/acre, versus 151.0 last month and 171.0 in 2025.
• Market: >135: 96% · >140: 94% · >145: 90% · >150: 60% · >155: 36% · >160: 12% · >165: 8%.

The market

Each row pays $1 if the final 2026 yield is above that level.

Market middle: for “above X” ladders, the point where the implied chance crosses 50% (prices forced to fall as the threshold rises, interpolated between rungs). Prices are the bid/ask midpoint when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade. Events with fewer than 500 contracts traded show “thin trading” instead of a middle, and ladders whose quoted prices contradict each other show “prices out of order”. Pulled Nov 12, 2026, 8:04 AM ET.

What USDA says

How it settles

The market settles on the final 2026 corn-for-grain yield for South Dakota in USDA NASS’s Crop Production Annual Summary, released in January 2027. The monthly Crop Production reports (August to November) are forecasts; the annual summary replaces them with a figure based on farmer surveys after harvest. Yield is bushels harvested divided by acres harvested for grain, so acres cut for silage or abandoned are not in the denominator.

What moves it

Monthly forecasts change as NASS gets more field counts (ears per acre, ear weight) and farmer reports. In South Dakota, late-summer drought and early frost are the big risks; harvest progress in the weekly Crop Progress report shows when real yields start coming in. Large swings between the September forecast and the final figure are common in dry years.

Worked example

Suppose the “above 150” contract trades at 55 cents while USDA’s forecast is 153.0. A buyer is betting the final number holds above 150, a cushion of +3.0 bushels. If November’s report trims the forecast to 148, that contract would likely fall, even though the market still settles only in January. For scale, each bushel of yield across 5,840 thousand acres is about 5.8 million bushels of production.

Download the data

South Dakota Corn Yield markets (one row per event) (CSV)

One row per live event: market middle, contracts listed and traded, and the latest official value. No contract prices or price histories. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Methodology

• Markets. Open Kalshi events for each series, read from the public API. Prices are bid/ask midpoints when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade.
• Official values. USDA NASS Crop Production report released November 10, 2026 (ESMIS text file), corn for grain by state.
• No prices in the CSV. One row per event: market middle, contracts listed and traded, and the latest official value.
• Limits. Market middles are snapshots, not forecasts we endorse. Official values shown are the latest published, not necessarily the period each market settles on. Thinly traded events are flagged. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Nov 12, 2026, 8:04 AM ET.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

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