Marijuana Rescheduling Prediction Markets vs the Federal Register

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Nov 12, 2026, 8:05 AM ET

Key findings

• Federal Register: 3 DEA rescheduling documents; no final rule so far.
• Market: Before Jan 1, 2027: 3% · Before Apr 1, 2027: 36% · Before Jul 1, 2027: 52% · Before Oct 1, 2027: 64% · Before Jan 1, 2028: 69% · Before Jan 20, 2029: 81%.

The market: when will marijuana be rescheduled?

Each row is a Yes/No contract that pays $1 if rescheduling happens before that date. The chances rise with later dates because a later deadline includes every earlier one.

Market middle: for “above X” ladders, the point where the implied chance crosses 50% (prices forced to fall as the threshold rises, interpolated between rungs). Prices are the bid/ask midpoint when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade. Events with fewer than 500 contracts traded show “thin trading” instead of a middle, and ladders whose quoted prices contradict each other show “prices out of order”. Pulled Nov 12, 2026, 8:05 AM ET.

The official record in the Federal Register

Every step of a DEA scheduling change is published in the Federal Register. These are the DEA documents titled “Rescheduling of Marijuana”, newest first:

Note the 2026-04-28 final rule (2026-08176) covers only FDA-approved drug products containing marijuana, moving them to Schedule III. It does not reschedule marijuana itself, so it does not settle the market.

How it settles

The contract resolves Yes when marijuana is moved from Schedule I to a lower schedule under the Controlled Substances Act. In practice that means a final rule from the DEA (or a law passed by Congress) that places marijuana in Schedule II–V. A proposed rule, a hearing or a recommendation from the Department of Health and Human Services does not count. A final rule usually takes effect 30 days after it is published; check the contract rules for whether publication or the effective date counts.

What moves it

The rulemaking steps that remain: the end of the comment period, any formal hearing before an administrative law judge (the 2024 proposal stalled at this stage), the DEA Administrator’s final decision, and review by the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs. Lawsuits can delay a final rule after publication. Traders also watch statements from the Attorney General, who holds the scheduling authority and delegates it to the DEA.

Worked example

If “before April 1, 2027” trades at 35% and “before Jan. 1, 2027” at 4%, the market is putting about 31 points of probability on a final action between January and March 2027. A buyer of the April contract at 35 cents gets $1 if the final rule lands by March 31, 2027, and nothing if it slips to April or later, even by a day.

Download the data

Marijuana Rescheduling markets (one row per event) (CSV)

One row per live event: market middle, contracts listed and traded, and the latest official value. No contract prices or price histories. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Methodology

• Markets. Open Kalshi events for each series, read from the public API. Prices are bid/ask midpoints when the spread is 10¢ or less, otherwise the last trade.
• Official values. Federal Register API, DEA documents whose title contains “Rescheduling of Marijuana”, pulled on the run date.
• No prices in the CSV. One row per event: market middle, contracts listed and traded, and the latest official value.
• Limits. Market middles are snapshots, not forecasts we endorse. Official values shown are the latest published, not necessarily the period each market settles on. Thinly traded events are flagged. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Nov 12, 2026, 8:05 AM ET.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

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