FOMC Dissent Prediction Markets vs Fed Statements: Every Dissent Since 2011

By Arthur Angelo, PredictionScout Research · Updated Oct 23, 2026, 8:36 AM ET

Key findings

• More meetings with dissents. 9 of the 14 meetings since January 2025 had at least one dissent, against 49 of 120 (41%) since 2012. The most at one meeting: 4, on Apr 29, 2026.
• Count markets. Across 8 settled meetings, the exact dissent count Kalshi favored 24 hours before was right 4 times; on average the market gave the actual count a 36% chance.
• Member markets. Of 64 priced “will this member dissent?” contracts, the side above 50¢ was right 60 times. The 10 members who did dissent were priced at a median 57.5¢ a day before.
• Settlements check out. 8 of 8 count settlements and 72 of 72 member settlements match the names in the Fed’s statement.
• Not every “voting against” is about the rate. At Apr 29, 2026, the statement listed 3 members who supported the rate decision but objected to the statement’s wording. Kalshi’s meeting markets counted them as dissents; its full-year market’s rules exclude them, which puts 2026 at 7 qualifying dissents rather than 10.
• Next meeting (Oct 28, 2026): the count market’s most likely outcome is 2 dissents (30% after scaling to 100%); the members most likely to dissent are Beth Hammack 74%, Lorie Logan 48%, Neel Kashkari 44%.

How the dissent markets work

Twelve FOMC members vote at each meeting: the seven Fed governors, the president of the New York Fed, and four other Reserve Bank presidents who rotate in each year. A dissent is a formal vote against the policy action. The Fed lists dissenters, with what each preferred, at the end of the statement released at 2:00 PM ET on decision day. In 2026 the statements name only those voting against, rather than every voter.

Two kinds of contract. “Will this member dissent?” (KXFEDDISSENT) pays $1 if the statement names that member as voting against. “How many dissents?” (KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT) has one contract per count, and exactly one pays. Trading stops at 1:59 PM ET on decision day. Kalshi’s terms count only formal votes against the main policy action: a separate statement of disagreement, a dissent on wording, or a comment by a non-voting president does not count; an abstention or absence is not a dissent, but an alternate who votes in place of an absent member is counted. Unscheduled meetings are not covered.

What drives the odds. Speeches and interviews by voting members in the weeks before a meeting, how close the decision is expected to be, and members’ records: some members dissent repeatedly in the same direction, as the table of dissenters below shows.

Reading the tables. “Chance a day before” uses prices 24 hours before trading closed. For the count market, prices across counts are scaled to add to 100%. “Reason” is our short label for what the statement says each dissenter preferred (for example “wanted a hike”, “wanted no cut”, or “statement wording only” for members who backed the rate decision but objected to the text); the CSV has the Fed’s own wording.

A worked example. A day before the Jul 29, 2026 decision, the count market gave 3 dissents a 10% chance (favorite: 2 at 35%). The statement named Beth M. Hammack, Neel Kashkari, Lorie K. Logan, who preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting.

Next meeting: live odds

Calendar 2026: 10 dissenting votes so far. Kalshi’s full-year market (KXFEDDISSENTYEAR) most likely outcome: Exactly 8 26%, Exactly 9 24%, Exactly 7 22%. Check that market’s own rules for how it counts before comparing it with the tally here.

Every settled dissent-count market

Every FOMC decision since 2019

Most frequent dissenters since 2011

Download the data

Every FOMC statement since 2011 (CSV)Settled Kalshi dissent markets (CSV)

One row per FOMC statement since 2011, and one row per settled Kalshi dissent contract. No price histories are included. Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0 with a link back to this page.

Methodology

• Statements. Every “Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement” release in the Board’s press-release feed (September 2011 onward, including unscheduled meetings). We read the “Voting against” paragraph for names and what each member preferred, and the opening of the statement for the action (hike, cut or hold).
• Markets. Kalshi’s KXFEDDISSENT (one contract per member), KXFOMCDISSENTCOUNT (one contract per count; the top bucket includes higher counts) and KXFEDDISSENTYEAR series, from Kalshi’s public API. Price: 24 hours before trading closed (hourly-candle bid/ask midpoint, or last trade when the spread is wider than 10¢).
• Reasons. A short label from the statement’s own wording: a preferred hike or cut, no change, a balance-sheet or forward-guidance objection, or “statement wording only” when the member supported the rate decision but objected to the text. The CSV carries the Fed’s full wording for every dissent.
• Limits. Settled Kalshi dissent markets go back only to mid-2025; the member markets list only some members; our reason labels are a short reading of the statement text (the CSV keeps the Fed’s wording); Kalshi’s meeting markets and its full-year market count statement-wording dissents differently, as noted above. Nothing here is investment advice. Last run: Oct 23, 2026, 8:36 AM ET.

Data sources: prices and volumes come from the public APIs of Kalshi and Polymarket, with votes from Federal Reserve FOMC statements. All trademarks belong to their owners. PredictionScout is independent and not affiliated with any exchange. Nothing here is investment, betting, or legal advice.

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